The Cashmere Cupcake Game

Villanova (1-0) vs. Penn State (2-0)

Time/TV: Saturday, Sept. 13, 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1. Yes, the coveted “please don’t flip to yard work” window.

Why this game exists

Because someone’s gotta help fund the next round of luxury seat warmers at West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium. (Remember when it was just “Beaver Stadium” before the invoice printer jammed?) Villanova, a good FCS outfit, pockets a nice check; Penn State gets another chore chart before Oregon’s White Out on Sept. 27 while James Franklin gets another frustrating tune-up game to show that his team is not ready for prime time.

All in all, it gives the sports bloggers and YouTube idiots something to blow wind about and it feeds the anti-Franklin whiners.

State of the Lions (a.k.a. “#2 by inertia”)

Yeah, the AP sportswriters sure have egg on their half-shaven faces, but barring any major screwups, they will preserve Penn State’s #2 ranking while they do not win TOO ugly. Here’s what the Kitties have under their belt thus far—certainly insufficient affirmation of that vaunted ranking:

• Beat Nevada 46–11, then FIU 34–0. The scores look pretty on the fundraising brochure; the film says “meh, still sputtery,” especially early and in short yardage.
• Drew Allar has been fine-on-paper (200 yards, 2 TD vs FIU) but the offense hasn’t looked like anything resembling a juggernaut — or even half-assed efficient. Even friendly graders dinged the OL and short-yardage push. If you’re ranked No. 2 and can’t dent FIU’s front for three quarters, save the confetti.
• The defense? Businesslike and reasonably mean: three takeaways vs Nevada; a shutout vs FIU; edge guys flashing; DDS and Tony Rojas everywhere. That unit actually looks like a contender—at least in the “pre-season”.

What Villanova brings (besides an invoice)

The Wildcats just beat Colgate 24–17 and now step up a weight class. They’re typically well-coached, balanced for FCS, and will happily slow this into a 60-minute scrimmage if Franklin lets them hang around. FS1 gets a show if Penn State starts napping.

History lesson

Last time: 2021, PSU 38–17. It wasn’t close until Penn State got bored, put in the guys with clean jerseys, and Villanova hit a couple late haymakers. Different rosters, same cautionary tale: don’t feed hope. I wrote a game retrospective back then with the same cynicism I’m expressing now. My attitude is typical among Penn State stalwarts: set your sights low, so you won’t be disappointed.

In that 2021 game, Villanova all but shut down the Penn State running game, forcing Sean Clifford to pass a lot. Chances are, head coach Mark Ferrante and DC Ross Pennypacker will cook up a similar scheme for Saturday, daring Allar to throw some clunkers like he did against FIU. Verily, without a decent running game, this offense will sputter once again.

What I expect (and what will annoy you)

• Penn State offense: Heavy dose of Kaytron Allen to paper over the line’s wobble, a designer deep shot to keep the students awake, and just enough red-zone bog to reignite your “are we actually #2?” monologue. And by the way, where the hell is Nick Singleton? He looked sleepy against FIU. One more thing will make me happy: the O-line must not suck.
• Penn State defense: Turns the screws, squeeze the run, force a panic throw or two. The shutout streak propaganda department is warmed up. My feeling is that DDS and Tony Rojas will have big days, but the secondary will blow a few.
• Special teams: Mostly tidy, with one “WTF” moment—because there’s always one. (Blocked FG vs FIU wasn’t exactly a recruiting poster, but they get points for the blocked FIU punt). Finally, at 6’6″ and 292 pounds, PSU DOES have the biggest damn punter in college football in Gabriel Nwosu. You don’t want to be the return guy who beats the rest of the defenders only to have this lumbering giant deliver a season-ending rib-crusher.

Keys to keeping the eyerolls down

1. Start fast. No three empty possessions to open the day. Let the defense play downhill, not rescue duty.
2. Short-yardage spine. Convert 3rd/4th-and-1 without summoning the field goal unit—against an FCS front—or stop pretending, already.
3. WR timing, not hero balls. Keep the pitch-and-catch rhythm you finally found late vs FIU; don’t rely on one circus grab to prove the room exists. Those receivers cost a lot of money, so Allar better start hitting them in stride.

The White Out undertow

Win, and the pollsters keep the helium balloon floating into Oregon week; wobble, and the September 27 party starts to look like a trap sprung on the host. NBC already circled it in highlighter.

Da Wedda

We’re hitting that time of year in Central Pennsylvania when weather forecasts made more than a day in advance run the risk of being 180 degrees from the eventual reality. I’m writing this early in the week because I’ve got a lot on my schedule this week. While AccuWeather is calling for a perfect, partly cloudy day with a high of 74 on Saturday, ya never know!

Da Bottom Line

Time for that wonderful weekly wishy-washy wangle, namely, the Official Turkey Poop Prognostication. Based on (or “based off of”, if you want me to talk like the uneducated idiots who write most of the sports drivel) — oops, where was I? Oh, yeah—based on what we have seen thus far this season, predictions are futile. We know Penn State will win—ESPN rates their chance of success at 99% for this cream-filled cupcake, but we must mitigate that expectation with their flawed early-season non-performances.

We do not have a betting line to smirk at, which is typical of mismatched games like this. I’ve seen various pundits suggesting that Penn State should be a 35-45 point favorite. This would comport with the spreads on the two prior cupcake games, which we know Penn State did not cover.

So, I’m going with Penn State 41, Villanova 6. You get your comfortable margin and your lingering unease—perfect preparation for maximum heartbreak potential in two weeks. If there was a spread, they wouldn’t cover it.

Now go enjoy the “tune-up” and practice your “told you so” for the White Out. I’ll be back after this useless game with more cynical commentary and a word or two of warning about the schedule beyond our first bye week.