Oregon Ducks (4-0) vs Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0)
The White Out hype machine will be in full force for this 7:30 pm prime-time battle. This will be the big game of the week for temporarily Kimmelless ESPN/ABC/DisneyGBTQ+, who will broadcast College GameDay live from West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium, sometimes known here as St. Joe Memorial Stadium. The senior partners from the law firm of Fowler & Herbstreit will provide the game commentary.
The Oregon Ducks have chosen to sidestep the State College hoopla, locating themselves where the Turkey hatched almost eight decades ago. Yea, verily, they opted to settle in the sleepy former railroad town of Altoona, 45 minutes away. The high points of my returns there are my visits with relatives in the cemetery. Just sayin’. Anyhow, this strategy could backfire on the Quackers after they gorge on Altoona-style pizza (see description at the end of this article: “A Guide for Unwary Ducks”) and consequently contract food poisoning. On the plus side, they can log their warmup laps running up the 194 steps to the Horseshoe Curve. Then they can cool off by taking a dip in the reservoir below. Not much else to do there — I mean they probably didn’t know my relatives. But I digress.
We’ll look at both teams through the usual Nittany Turkey jaundiced eye before making our sparkling prediction. The big question is: What the hell do we know, already?
Lofty Expectations. Based on What?
When the 2025 schedule was first published, the Penn State-Oregon matchup looked like a favorable start for the Nittany Lions’ Big Ten season. At season’s outset, most assumed PSU would get past the Ducks, then settle into conference play, with the marquee showdown against the Schmuckeyes looming down the line. The prevailing prediction among The Sanguinarians? An 11-1 regular season, with the loss coming in Columbus — certainly not in Happy Valley against Oregon.
But here we are, several games in, and despite magnanimously inflated national rankings, neither team has truly proven itself worthy of their rank; much of the current standing is still built upon preseason expectations and presumed continuity. Although the AP poll pulled out of sportswriters’ asses lists Penn State at #3 and Oregon at #6, the ESPN’s power rankings — also very generous — put Penn State at #5 and Oregon #3. Yet both have dispatched only far weaker opponents so far. Oregon’s four wins are marginally tougher, but not by a helluva lot.
The Rematch: Last Year’s Big Ten Championship Game
This is a rematch of the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game, where No. 1 Oregon edged No. 3 Penn State 45-37, earning the Ducks their first conference title in their debut Big Ten season. Some of the takeaways that linger:
- Oregon built a lead, while PSU started slowly (as usual). Penn State mounted a strong comeback, but Oregon held on via key plays — a late interception being the critical one.
- PSU had nearly 300 rushing yards and over 500 total yards, showing they could move the ball against the Mighty Ducks. But Oregon’s balance, explosiveness, and ability to get big chunks in the passing game made the difference.
- The psychological angle: for Oregon, that win was a statement; for Penn State, it was a wound that’s still fresh. Penn State homies still desperately cling to the 1995 Rose Bowl win over the Ducks as their claim to dominance in the series, but that was then, and this is now. Ki-Jana and Kerry are both playing shuffleboard in St. Pete now. But once again, I digress with a wistful remembrance of Penn State’s glorious past.
Anyhow, in last year’s losing effort, Kaytron Allen had 124 yards on 14 carries and Nick Singleton added 105 through 10 attempts. Tyler Warren caught seven passes for 84 yards. And Drew Allar threw two interceptions.
Key Departures, Personnel Questions & Running Game
Since that game, PSU kept many starters but lost two major contributors: Abdul Carter on defense and Tyler Warren on offense. Both were difference-makers. Warren especially is missed in the red zone and in tight-window throws. Oregon likewise lost its prior starting QB, Dillon Gabriel (22-32, 283 yds with 4 TDs and NO interceptions in the championship game), but the Ducks found a worthy replacement in sophomore Dante Moore — highly recruited, athletic, confident, and with strong weapons around him. Thus far, Moore has thrown for 962 yards with 11 touchdowns and only one interception–and a 74.7% completion rate.
One of the biggest questions for Penn State remains: will Drew Allar ever fully realize his promise, or will he continue to be erratic and vulnerable to interceptions in high-stakes moments? I know, I know. I’ve been asking that question all year. This game should answer it.
What Franklin Said Monday: Running Game & Mindset
Coach James Franklin’s Monday presser revealed some of the internal thinking around the running game, particularly about Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen:
- On Nick Singleton, Franklin emphasized he wants him to stop overthinking. The senior back has been cautious, trying to be too perfect, sometimes reminding me of Austin Scott. Franklin’s message: “let it rip” on game day — run with aggression, decisiveness, without getting bogged down mentally.
- On Kaytron Allen, several sources suggest he has been the more explosive back so far this season, especially on outside runs. For instance, Allen has averaged something like 8 yards per carry through three games, with big plays when bouncing outside.
- The usage balance has been under discussion. Singleton has gotten more carries in some games, but Franklin said that isn’t always a designed imbalance — more a result of how drives develop (who’s in, who the play calls favor, etc.) rather than a rigid plan to favor one back.
These remarks suggest Franklin sees the run game as a lever — not just for yardage, but for momentum, tempo, and physicality. If Singleton can “let it rip,” that might help take pressure off Allar in big moments, help control the clock, and wear down Oregon’s front.
And what of the offensive line? Will they enable the running game and also protect Allar, who doesn’t need pressure to worsen the mental errors he commits even when unhurried?
Third and Forever
One thing is for damn sure. Penn State absolutely needs an effective running game to win this game. If we keep on seeing the crap we’ve been seeing, oy vey! That brings up two big Penn State disappointments seen throughout the cupcake romp: THIRD DOWN SUCKAGE and RED ZONE PUTRIDITY.
Penn State has again shown trouble moving the chains and finishing drives. Through three games, the offense is converting far too few third downs (38.9 %), and settling for field goals in the red zone has become too common. Against FIU, PSU managed only 3 of 12 third down conversions; against Villanova, just 5 of 11. If you can’t dominate third down or finish in the red zone — especially versus Nevada, FIU, and Villanova — what hope is there when the opposition brings a real defense? Oregon, with its speed, depth, and experience in tight spots, will make those failures costly.
Meanwhile, Oregon has shown what a clean, efficient offense looks like on third down and in the red zone. They’re converting nearly 58% of third downs overall, staying consistent at home and even better on the road. And once they reach the red zone, they’ve turned every trip inside the 20 into points. PSU, by contrast, has regularly failed to sustain drives and too often settles for field goals or stalls in scoring position — even versus Nevada, FIU, Villanova. If those inefficiencies haunt you early, they’ll kill you in a game like this.
Turnovers ‘R’ Us—Not!
Another area where both teams shine — at least on paper — is turnover margin. Through September, Penn State sits near the top of the national charts, with a positive turnover differential thanks to an opportunistic defense and generally careful ball security (Allar’s lapses notwithstanding). Oregon is right there as well, protecting the ball on offense while forcing mistakes with a swarming, athletic defense. In games where everything else feels evenly matched, turnover margin can be the hidden separator; and in this matchup, both sides have shown they can tilt the field with takeaways. The question is whether Allar can avoid the kind of high-leverage interception that doomed the Lions against Notre Dame last December, and whether PSU’s defense can generate enough disruption to give their offense short fields against a Duck unit that rarely coughs it up.
What It All Adds Up To
Putting this all together:
- Penn State is fighting not just Oregon’s talent, but its own internal doubts: can its offense, especially the run-game, step up? Will Drew Allar make dumbass mistakes at crucial junctures? Will the offensive line continue to underwhelm?
- Losing Warren means fewer reliable safety valves and less offensive flexibility. Will Penn State’s million dollar receivers come through? Will Allar be on- or off-target under the prime-time lens and glaring lights?
- If the run game clicks — especially via Allen’s explosiveness or Singleton playing more freely — PSU has a better chance to keep pace with Oregon, slow the Ducks down, and make this game competitive late.
Da Wedda
The possibility of a shower or two looms for the 7:30 pm kickoff after a day of highs in the 70s, with a forecast low of 56. Not too bad for the white-out.
Da Bottom Line
We finally got here. The much anticipated Official Turkey Poop Prognostication is upon us, and this foul old fowl is scratching his thinning head feathers. I really don’t have a helluva lot to go on, as I expressed above. At this point in the season where there should be some clarity, we have only questions.
Penn State’s offense has sputtered at times, while Oregon has been consistent. Penn State’s defense has given up 437 yards per game, while Oregon has allowed only 229 through four games. And then, there’s that third-down thing I mentioned before. Penn State’s 38.9% conversion rate against weak opposition sucks big time. Meanwhile, the Ducks’ defense has allowed only 27.5% of opponents’ third-down tries.
The gamblers have tightened the spread on this one. We’re now seeing Penn State favored by just 3.5, with an over/under of 52.5, which suggests a 28-24 Penn State win. The way I see it, 3.5 represents home field advantage. The White Out hype and noise provides an even greater differential, although it cuts both ways—the noise can make it difficult for the PSU defense to remain coordinated even if it disrupts the Oregon offense. If Penn State plays a perfect game, they can win this one, but past performance says otherwise. A slow start coupled with stupid throws by Allar during a desperation comeback attempt and some stupid calls by Franklin will be all it takes to lose this one. And indeed, they will lose. Oregon 32, Penn State 25. Take the over.
Altoona-Style Pizza
Altoona-Style Pizza: A Guide for Unwary Ducks
You never heard of it? Join the crowd. Altoona-style pizza is the culinary answer to the question nobody asked: “What if we made pizza, but instead of Italy, we channeled a Midwestern church potluck on quaaludes?”
Let’s break this gastronomic crime scene down:
The Base
Not a hand-tossed, thin, blistered crust kissed by a wood-fired oven. No, no. This is thick, spongy Sicilian-style bread, baked to resemble a cafeteria sheet cake. Imagine Wonder Bread that hit puberty too fast—dense yet airy, pillowy but somehow damp, like the mattress in a roadside motel. It’s square, because round pies are apparently for people with taste.
The Sauce
The “sauce” is a whisper-thin smear of tomato puree that tastes like someone rinsed out a SpaghettiOs can. Barely seasoned, a suggestion of oregano if you’re lucky, more often just a red stain providing color contrast against the bread.
The Cheese
Here’s where the Altoona horror truly begins. Instead of mozzarella—delightful, stretchy mozzarella—you get a single, square slice of yellow American cheese slapped right on top. The kind of “pasteurized processed cheese food product” that usually melts over a gas-station burger, not a pizza. It doesn’t melt so much as it relaxes, oozing its petroleum byproducts into a fluorescent puddle.
The Toppings
Then—brace yourself—they throw on green bell pepper rings and thick deli-style salami slices. Not pepperoni. Not soppressata. But salami so chunky and greasy it looks like it came pre-sliced at a Weis Market deli counter. The bell pepper, usually half-raw, steams reluctantly under the blanket of American cheese, releasing bitter vegetable notes that mingle with the bologna-esque salami fat.
The Presentation
Baked until the ersatz cheese starts to blister into an unnatural orange sheen, then cut into rectangles, because symmetry is for quitters. The whole mess resembles a grade-school art project made of Play-Doh, melted crayons, and cafeteria meat slices.
The Experience
Take a bite. First, your teeth sink into the spongy mattress crust. Then the plasticky tang of so-called American cheese slaps your taste buds, coating your mouth with an industrial lube film. The salami fights back with chewy saltiness, while the raw bell pepper crunches defiantly, reminding you this was once a vegetable. The tomato smear is so faint you wonder if it was just painted on for show.
When swallowed, it leaves a greasy aftertaste that lingers longer than your will to live. And yet—locals defend it. Some even crave it. Nostalgia is a hell of a drug.
I’ll be back after the game to eat my words. At least I hope so.
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You won’t have to eat your words if Penn State plays against Oregon like they played against FIU and Villanova. And predicting a seven point loss would be too optimistic.
However, I expect a much better effort against Oregon. I have no idea whether that improved effort will be good enough to win. The only prediction I will make is that Penn State will lose if they are trailing Oregon at half time, Aller is not good enough to lead a 2nd half comeback.
As in the past, they’ll probably wake up and start playing well after they see that they must do so to survive. Will it be too little and too late? Again there, past history with Allar suggests that even if they narrow the gap to one score, he’ll choke at the crucial moment. I will cringe in anticipation of that moment; there will be no McSorley-like battle to the end.
—TNT
“Oregon’s four wins are marginally tougher, but not by a helluva lot.”
Not sure about that TNT. Our schedule is easily the worst first three we have played in the modern era. Look at this past weekend. Villanova was dominated by Monmouth. The same team we looked like garbage against for a half. FIU was housed by Delaware. Nevada lost to the Hilltoppers. Nevada with a gazillion new players is the strongest of the bunch, and they aren’t half as good as Northwestern and Oklahoma State is closer in talent to Penn State than they are to Northwestern.
Oregon has successfully built upon the framework Joe Moorhead installed. They are QB agnostic and player friendly. They upgraded at QB. They could lose 9 starters and look better than us almost any year. Their D-line looks Big Ten ready and they are fast. Comparatively, to me at least, this looks like the least talented front seven in memory (aka, the Big Ten era). The offense is stuck with three pro-style Quarterbacks and an OC that has one season of experience using a pro-style QB. The receivers are a step up from last year but certainly don’t look great. The turn styles weren’t much better feasting on lesser defenses and caving when they didn’t. They looked good against Oregon but when they faced four, five and six man fronts, they should.
I have had this one in the loss column since last season. The Big Ten title game was not very competitive. We are worse than last year, and they might be better. Total game time we were within two scores after the first quarter can be counted in seconds. The combined number of fingers and toes me, you and the entire readership of the blog has probably exceeded that number. The game really wasn’t close with Oregon playing quasi prevent early in the second quarter with a three score lead and risk free offense while still scoring at will.
The White Out will help but how much? I doubt nearly enough. We’ll play hard and the game will look more competitive than it really is on the scoreboard and I’ll be POed at the money I wasted on tickets for a sure fire loss. We can’t win this one on our best day. Period. We are simply not talented, not well coached and not up for the task. But, if Oregon shows up with their C game, we have a shot.
Amazingly, the spread is still stuck at PSU -3.5. I think that’s an overlay. No-brainer to take Oregon and the gratuitous points. As for the over/under, that might be a sporting bet, but I believe the Ducks can score on this defensive group. And as you say, if Penn State happens to catch Oregon playing its D-game, they might both put up some points. (If only Allar could hit his targets).
—TNT