What the Hell Is Going On in Happy Valley?

Northwestern (3-2) vs. Penn State (3-2), Saturday, 3:30 ET

After opening the season ranked #3 and being anointed by the Sanguinarians as a College Football Playoff lock, Penn State has plummeted faster than a Beaver Stadium Wi-Fi connection. Two consecutive losses — the gut-punch double-overtime fiasco against Oregon and the humiliation at UCLA — have sent the Nittany Lions spiraling out of the AP Top 25 entirely. In just three weeks, they’ve gone from “national contender” to “national embarrassment.” Their odds of winning a Big Ten title? Down to 0.6%, 11th in the conference. Even Maryland is now at 1.2% according to SP+.

The defense that once looked ferocious now resembles a bunch of guys in blue-and-white pajamas watching the play unfold. The offense? Although he showed up for the UCLA game, Drew Allar looks lost and tentative most of the time, the O-line (known around here as the five traffic cones) can’t block a pop-up ad, and the play-calling has the creativity of a DMV form. James Franklin, meanwhile, looks as bewildered as the rest of us — pacing the sideline with that thousand-yard stare, clutching his laminated sheet of doom, and mouthing platitudes in postgame interviews about “execution” and “self-inflicted wounds.” At this point, one begins to wonder whether Franklin’s vaunted “process” is less Nick Saban and more Rube Goldberg.

And yet — Vegas still thinks this is a three-touchdown game. Somehow, the oddsmakers have Penn State favored by 21.5 over Northwestern. Northwestern, the perennial Big Ten doormat, is coming to Beaver Stadium for Homecoming — and right now, that might be the scariest thing imaginable.

Welcome Back, Jimmy!

The Beaver Stadium reception for the returning Nittany Lions — and particularly James Franklin, who bears the collective burden of the team’s and the coaching staff’s 0-2 Big Ten record — will be hostile. Students and alumni returning for the Homecoming game are pissed off and are out for blood — Franklin’s.

The question hanging over this week’s game isn’t whether the Lions can still “turn the corner” — it’s whether they can even find the damn road. Something’s broken — in the locker room, on the sideline, in the playbook, maybe all of the above. Franklin’s tenure has been marked by solid recruiting, nice facilities, and glossy hype videos… but also by maddening inconsistency and an uncanny ability to choke at the worst possible times.

All Decked Out in Retro Gear

To distract the returning alums from their team’s malfeasance, West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium will adopt a retro paint scheme (pictured). Penn State players will be wearing retro “Generations of Greatness” uniforms, blue with a touch of white bias tape, as an icon of past wonderfulness. Under ordinary circumstances, this would be a fun thing for Homecoming. However, in this year’s malodorous climate, the alumni are not amused.

The iconic look I’d like to see return is beating unranked 0-4 opponents. —Gina Cherundolo, Facebook Comment

So here we are, heading into Homecoming — the traditional feel-good weekend — and the Nittany Lions are a wounded animal limping back to their den. ESPN’s Bottom Ten lists them at #5, nestled among the likes of Sam Houston, Oregon State, UMass, Kent, Nevada, and Middle Tennessee State. The fan base is restless, the players look confused, and the head coach looks like he’s run out of slogans.

If they don’t show up with fire in their bellies this Saturday, Northwestern could do what UCLA just did: catch the Lions sleepwalking and turn Homecoming into a wake.

What Northwestern Brings to the Beave

Now that I got that off my chest, let’s look at our opponent and how they fared with common opponents Oregon and UCLA. I’ll give you a hint: against those two, Penn State is 0-2 while the Wildcats are 1-1. The ‘Cats lost to Oregon 34-14 in Week 3; the following week they beat UCLA 17-14. Both were home games for Northwestern.

Oregon went into their game 24.5 point favorites and didn’t cover the spread. The mighty Duck Dynasty defense blanked the outclassed Wildcats for three-and-a-half periods while scoring 34 points before they yielded two touchdowns in garbage time. They led 31-0 going into the fourth quarter. However, stats were not completely lopsided, except for two interceptions thrown by NWU senior QB Preston Stone.

The UCLA game was tamer but it was Northwestern who drew first blood and led 17-3 at the half. They had to stave off a late comeback attempt by Nico and the boys, holding on to win 17-14. The “stat battle” was close to a draw, with no turnovers. However, the Bruins shot themselves in the paws with six penalties for sixty yards.

The Wildcats rank 5th in the Big Ten in rushing yards (better than PSU at #8) but next-to-last in passing yards. However, their 3rd down conversion rate is about 10% better than Penn State’s. Their offense is more run than pass oriented.

Keys to the Game — or, How Not to Embarrass Yourself on Homecoming Day

1. Wake Up Before Halftime.
   Sleepwalking through the first two quarters followed by “we need to do better” at halftime has long been a Franklin trademark. If they spot Northwestern a lead, the boo birds will have their throats warmed up by the band’s second verse of “Fight On State.”
2. Give the Damn Ball to Nick Singleton — Less.
   OC Andy Kotelnicki, hired in 2024 to bring creativity, has instead doubled down on predictability. Everyone in the stadium knows when Singleton is running — and lately, so does every linebacker in the Big Ten. He’s been tentative, slow to hit holes, and allergic to contact. Meanwhile, Kaytron Allen (averaging 5.2 ypc — almost twice Singleton’s average — through two conference games) has emerged as the real workhorse — stronger, quicker, better vision — yet the brain trust keeps handing the ball to Singleton. If Kotelnicki doesn’t start featuring Allen, he’ll be run out of State College faster than you can say Mike Yurcich.
3. Let Allar Off the Leash.
   Allar’s playing like a man afraid of making a mistake — which means he’s making plenty of them. Behind the traffic cones, his passes have been off the mark and tentative. He achieved success in the running game against UCLA: sadly, he was the leading rusher with 11 carries for 78 yards. He proved he can be a dual-threat weapon (even though the passing hasn’t been much of a damn threat lately).
4. Play Angry Defense.
   Oregon and UCLA gashed this group with simple plays. Northwestern will test their pride with dink-and-dunk screens and punishing runs. If DDS, Campbell, and DeLuca don’t bring attitude, this could become another second-half nail-biter. Keeping them fresh means the offense must do its damn job. Especially Cambell and DeLuca are not effective if they’re in there for every damn play on defense. And where has “The Dentist” been? His stat lines sucked against Oregon and UCLA.
5. Franklin Needs to Coach Like His Job Depends on It.
   The usual excuses — “we’re close,” “we just didn’t execute,” and “we need to work on some things” — are wearing thin. He needs to get this team out of their psychological doldrums by being a consummate motivator. Does he have it in him? At $7 million a year (including performance bonuses he likely won’t be getting this year), fans expect results, not motivational posters. Alas, those who are calling for Franklin’s head tend to forget that sums of money like $56 million (Franklin’s buyout) does not grow on trees — especially on the vaunted Penn State elms when the football organization and its supporters are pouring three-quarters of a billion bucks into stadium upgrades. To their chagrin, their quest for blood will be unrequited.

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Da Wedda

The weatherman gave us a break from sometimes unpredictable October Central Pennsylvania weather: mostly sunny with a high of 64 and only a 10% chance of rain.

Da Bottom Line

Yes, here we are. What a crappy season it has been to date, with three cupcakes followed by two sleepwalking non-performances. And they think painting the field differently will help? Oy vey.

Anyhow, the flawless, flatulent, farblondzhetta Official Turkey Poop Prognositication, that awful offal spewed through cloaca of this foul old fowl ain’t doing too bad. Although we got the victor of the UCLA game wrong (who woulda thunk?), we’re infallible at predicting Franklin’s failure to cover the spread. Yeah, I know. It’s a no-brainer picking Penn State not to cover in games they’re expected to win with James on the sideline. We got the over/under wrong, though.

Don’t Friggin’ Lose This One!

So where does that leave us? At the time I’m writing this, the spread is 21.5 points with an over/under of 48.5. ESPN gives PSU a 90.2% chance of getting the ‘W’. Penn State has better players, the home crowd, and the smell of desperation. That should be enough. But we’ve seen this movie before — the slow start, the nervous halftime, the last-minute scramble to salvage dignity.

Northwestern will hang around longer than they have any right to, while Franklin insists afterward that “we took a step forward” and “we won the stat battle”. Damn it, play the football we know you can play and quit overthinking the coaching end of it. That goes for Knowles and Kotelnicki as well as Franklin. Penn State 27, Northwestern 20. Ain’t no way Franklin covers the spread, so taking NWU plus three TDs seems like a bet. I’ll lay off the over/under. A win in the record book, but with Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State looming, a warning on the wall.

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I’ll be back after the game with a brainless recap and more grousing. But I’ll also offer fashion commentary about field painting and team haberdashery.