Penn State Nittany Lions (3-3, 0-3 Big Ten) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten)
Iowa City, Saturday Night — Kinnick Stadium • Kickoff 7PM
Such a few days it has been since James Franklin got the axe on Sunday! All the talking heads and the head-up-the-ass fans are speculating on who the next head coach will be. If you want that kind of useless chatter, you know where to find it: anywhere but here!
Here, we speculate about more important things, like the size of the ring Pat Kraft was wearing at his press conference on Monday. Or more seriously, why the hell did they decide to let NBCUniversal’s Peacock have exclusive rights to televise this game? Here’s a tip for those who want to circumvent the system (until someone catches on). Instacart+ members are given Peacock as a side benefit. Instacart currently offers a free trial of Instacart+ for two weeks, after which it’s $99/year. You can cancel anytime. Get the picture?
Given the turmoil, who can doubt that everyone on the Penn State side of the field will be looking forward to next week’s bye. Ohio State looms beyond the off-week, and to a man, they will not want to be embarrassed in the Horseshoe. However, in possibly the last time I’ll invoke James Franklin, we must go 1-0 against Iowa this week, and we need to stay focused on that.
The Context: Turbulence, Turnover, and a New Reality
This game is going to be defined more by what has unfolded off the field than what the records say. Penn State enters the weekend in crisis mode. James Franklin was relieved of his duties around noon on Sunday, leaving Terry Smith, a longtime assistant, to take over as interim. That gave Smith only a few days to stabilize a program in distress. The psychological hit to the roster must be severe: the players have lost a leader and coach who was widely viewed as a players’ coach, and morale was already at one of its lowest points in memory heading into the Northwestern game.
Smith inherits a fragile locker room, a busload of uncertainty, and now, the most compelling issue: the Ethan Grunkemeyer Era.
Ethan Grunkemeyer: Into the Fire
Late in the fourth quarter against Northwestern, Drew Allar suffered what has been ruled a season-ending injury, bringing his career at Penn State to an abrupt close. The redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer now becomes the new face of the offense.
What do we know about him? Not much in terms of track record—but glimpses:
- In his limited action this season, Grunkemeyer has completed 8 of 11 passes for 105 yards and a touchdown. His only action was in garbage time in the Nevada and Villanova cupcake wins.
- His high school pedigree is solid: at Olentangy (Ohio) he threw for 3,517 yards and 39 touchdowns as a senior.
- Scouting reports describe him as a “pure passer” with a smooth release, decent mobility, and the ability to escape pressure when needed. If he seems like a smaller version of Drew Allar, it is no coincidence.
- Inside the program, teammates have expressed belief that he’s been preparing like a starter for weeks, and coaches have said they’ll tailor the game plan to him. I don’t know about that. They didn’t do too much tailoring for Allar—he wore play-calling rags all season.
All that having been said, Grunk is a redshirt now making his first start in a difficult environment away from home. So, we’ll see. He might need the rest of this season to grow into the job.
Smith has his work cut out. He must close the leadership vacuum, support a rookie QB in hostile territory, and rally a team still reeling from upheaval. If there was ever a “gut check” moment for a program, this is it.
Iowa Hawkeyes: Rising Confidence, Balanced Play
While Penn State is in free fall, Iowa is trending upward. After a dominant 37-0 shutout over Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes now sit at 4–2 and bring momentum into this game. The defense forced three turnovers vs. Wisconsin and allowed Iowa’s offense to play comfortably inside Wisconsin territory on 66% of its snaps.
Of course, Wisconsin sucks. They have an even shittier record than Penn State’s at 2-4 overall and 0-3 in the Big Ten. The program is a mess and Luke Fickell’s head coaching job is en prise. But much like Penn State, the big deterrent is Fickell’s contract’s $25.3 million buyout provision.
Offensively, Iowa is … Iowa, leaning on a reliable run game to carry much of the load. If Iowa’s QB, Mark Gronowski, is healthy (he played through a knee concern last week) he offers dual-threat capability with enough mobility to keep defenses honest — and you know how mobile quarterbacks can shred the PSU defense (c.f. UCLA). The Hawkeyes’ rushing attack has often set the tone. On defense, they show discipline, swarming to the ball, and have been opportunistic with turnovers and field position.
Kirk Ferentz — Still the Cycles Keeper
Yes, Kirk Ferentz is still in command, entering his 27th season at Iowa. He is currently the longest-tenured head coach in the Big Ten and, by many accounts, among the most stable leaders in college football. He also holds the distinction of being the all-time winningest coach in Big Ten Conference history, having recently eclipsed Woody Hayes’ mark within the league.
That kind of institutional continuity matters, especially against an opponent in transition. Ferentz is not naive to the emotional arc a team goes through after coaching change and quarterback turnover. He’s spoken openly about how this game is unique, saying he expects the crowd, the night environment, and the emotional settings to be significant factors.
The Night, the Rituals & Kinnick’s Edge
A night game in Kinnick Stadium is a unique beast. The crowd, the atmosphere, the energy—it’s already one of the tougher road venues in college football. Ferentz is keenly aware of this, and Penn State must steel itself for an emotional, physical game under the lights.
One of the most moving traditions tied to Kinnick’s night games is the “Hawkeye Wave”, in which the crowd turns to salute children in the adjacent hospital. The Hawkeye program has cultivated a deep bond with the University of Iowa Children’s Hospital, with Coach Ferentz and his wife donating more than $1 million since 2017 and players making regular visits to patients. For these kids, the stadium’s attention is more than symbolic—it’s emotional, human, and humbling. The ritual adds an emotional undertone to the proceedings that few other venues can match.
Expect the energy to be intense, especially early, with Penn State needing to find some footing in hostile territory while Iowa feeds off that crowd aura. But you know what? Iowa fans have always been fair-minded, decent people, so “hostile” is probably not an appropriate word.
Da Wedda
Well, it’s mid Autumn in the Midwest. That’s a lot of mids, and a lot of big question marks about the weather.
It’s a night game, and weather could be a factor, especially if winds pick up or the temperature drops. Accuweather is looking for wind gusts to 30 mph and an 86% probability of precipitation.
- Temperature: Expect lows in the 40s or low 50s by kickoff, with the potential of cooler conditions late in the game.
- Winds: Those 30 mph gusts could affect passing trajectories, especially in turnover-prone zones or deep throws.
- Precipitation: Even light rain could introduce slipperiness, footing challenges, and make passing/rushing more precarious.
- Humidity/Field Conditions: Dew or moisture might affect grip, particularly late in the game.
In short, anything more than light drizzle could tilt things toward the defenses — and with a freshman QB under center, Penn State will want clean, controlled conditions. This leads me to what might be the shakiest, out-of-the-ass prediction of the season thus far.
Da Bottom Line
Yes, the Turkey is in a quandary. What to say, what to predict? You’ve reached the point where I deliver the famous Official Turkey Poop Prognostication, the weekly awful offal that emanates from the malodorous cloaca of this foul old fowl. And this season has turned fouler and fouler.
One thing is for certain this season thus far: you wouldn’t go broke betting the spread against Penn State. I believe that record will hold until the gamblers get their comeuppance. We’ve seen overlay after overlay.
The current line is Iowa – 2.5. Well, sheeit, that’s just home field advantage. The over/under? 40.5 — are you shittin’ me?!?!? Yes, you have it here, friends, another overlay, but one I’d lay off completely due to the uncertainty of Penn State’s psyche. Nevertheless, I want to put something down so I can brag about it on the off chance I’m right and forget about it if I’m wrong, which is more likely. And so, here goes: Iowa 20, Penn State 13. Take the under.
I’ll be back after the game to tell you what I think of “The New Nittany Lions” and “The Smith/Grunkemeyer Era”.
