#2 Indiana Hoosiers (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) vs Penn State Nittany Lions (3-5, 0-5 Big Ten), 12:00 Noon ET, TV: Fox
The Helmet Stripe of What Might Have Been
This Saturday, Indiana, the Hoosiers who used to serve as the league’s homecoming cupcake, struts into Beaver Stadium as the #2 team in the country. Meanwhile, Penn State, pre-season #2, is sitting at 3-5, winless in conference play, and trying to remember what tackling used to look like. What’s worse — it’s nominally a noon kickoff. [Cue ominous cello riff.]
If this were a movie, the working title would be The Decline and Fall of the Nittany Empire. But I digress.
The Setting
West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium. Noon kickoff. FOX “Big Noon Saturday,” which is really just the network’s way of saying “we have no better game to air but we need eyeballs for the commercial breaks.” Expect a crowd equal parts resignation and cheap beer that might leave for a pee break in the third quarter and decide that beating traffic is more appealing than watching the massacre on the field progress to its sad completion. . It’s billed as the Helmet Stripe Game — that quaint annual reminder that PSU fans can still follow instructions, even if the team can’t.
Indiana: The Cinderella with a Chainsaw
Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers aren’t the softies of yesteryear. They’re disciplined, explosive, and — horror of horrors — actually coached. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza looks like he’s playing seven-on-seven while everyone else is waist-deep in quicksand. His 72% completion rate and 25 TDs have transformed Indiana from conference filler to juggernaut.
With their remaining schedule against the dregs of the Big Ten, Penn State included, they’ll coast right through to the conference championship. Of course, they’ll need lots of points to surmount tie breakers, so expect no mercy in the remaining games against the the Lions, the Badgers, and the Boilermakers.
The Hoosier offense doesn’t just score — it embarrasses. Last week, they hung 42 on Moo U. by halftime and spent the second half polishing their fingernails.
Penn State: A Program in Witness Protection
After firing James Franklin six games into the season Penn State is led by Terry Smith, who despite noble efforts cannot resurrect a competitive product from what remains of this team. Drew Allar is gone, Tony Rojas is hurt, and the rest of the team looks like it’s mentally entering the transfer portal between snaps. Vince Lombardi in his prime could not have put this Humpty Dumpty team back together again.
The once-vaunted defense now specializes in making mediocre quarterbacks look like Joe Montana. The pass rush has evaporated, the linebackers are sightseeing, and the secondary couldn’t cover a folding chair. The rush defense gave up 164 yards last week; at this rate, the Hoosiers might break 300 without breaking a sweat.
The NIL Irony
Penn State’s wide receivers — those handsomely compensated “student-athletes” living the dream of NFL Lite — still can’t get open. Millions spent, and the best route they’ve run this season is straight out of town. Vertical passing game? It took the elevator to oblivion.
What to Expect
Indiana will treat this as a tune-up for the Big Ten Championship Game. Penn State will treat it as a test of the mercy rule.
Unless the Nittany Lions channel some long-buried pride — or the Hoosiers choke on their own hype — this will be over by the first drive of the third quarter. I don’t expect a close game, and I don’t think Cignetti will take his foot off the gas.
Da Wedda
But look on the bright side — the weather’s supposed to be nice. That’ll make it easy on the exiting traffic, too. The weatherman says partly cloudy with a high of 59. Should be a good day for football — except for Penn State.
Da Bottom Lion
Not to dwell on a theme, but I will do so anyway. I remember John McKay back in 1977, then head coach of the hapless Tampa Bay Bucs, after being asked by reporters whether he could draw anything positive out of this week’s loss to the Detroit Lions.
McKay, always the master of sarcasm, retorted, “Absolutely. The parking lot will be a lot emptier and easier to get out of next week against Green Bay.”
We’re getting to that point in the season. The team has given up, the fans have given up, and we cannot even say that the Nittany Lions are playing for pride. Practices have been listless and enthusiasm is lacking. Odds are that they will not win another game this year.
So, let’s get to the gory Official Turkey Poop Prediction. I’ll cut to the chase. Indiana is the gamblers’ choice by 14.5, and the over/under is hanging around 50.5. That works out to break-even at 27-13 Indiana. That’s yet another overlay. Buncha Penn State homies influencing the spread! One more time, I see Penn State failing to cover. I’m going with Indiana 41, Penn State 9. I’m staying away from the o/u.
I’ll be back after the game with a post-mortem — an apt metaphor.
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Big Al says
Indiana should cover the spread easily The Kitties offense can’t score in the double digits without a special teams or defensive touchdown. The only factor that might keep the margin of loss below 20 points is that Indiana’s offense performs worse on the road than at home. Iowa defense shut them down at Kinnick and Iowa would have won the game if Gronowski hadn’t been injured in the 3rd quarter,
But Iowa’s defense is disciplined and the players know their assignments. Pens State’s players aren’t and don’t. So, Indiana 52 Penn State 6
The Nittany Turkey says
Yeah, Al, that’s the fly in the ointment. Iowa’s defense is disciplined, while Penn States is arguably not present. They’re out there going through the motions. I’d say they were giving up because of the nil prospects for anything resembling success this season, but that would be too kind — they’ve been acting like that from the start.
Perhaps Knowles’ schemes are too complex for them, says the common wisdom. Well, life is complex, and if this bunch of overpaid brats don’t figure that out now, they’ll have their comeuppance at “the next level” — or not. If they don’t get drafted, they’ll blame it on the losses and the turmoil at Penn State. Externalization and self-delusions are effective tools — for five year-olds. When five-year-olds mix with sports agents, you get the 2025 version of college football.
Shifting gears, you want to talk about easy schedules? How the hell did Indiana manage the luck of the draw this year? They close out the season with three patsies who are winless in the Big Ten — a perfect stretch for R&R before the Big Ten Championship. The Hoosiers’ signature win over the Ducks at Autzen was their “for real” moment this season, but as you mentioned, they struggled a bit against Iowa, and they might find a bit of early resistance at St. Joe Memorial Stadium before the Lions throw in the towel. Meanwhile, Wisconsin and Purdue have packed it in for the year, so smooth sailing for Cignetti there.
The only thing that might bring an essence of ballin’ for Penn State is some of these clowns’ desire to impress NFL scouts. But that will be counterbalanced by the noon start and the general lack of energy called out by Terry Smith when he commented about practice on Wednesday. Expect a half-empty Beaver Stadium by mid-third quarter.
All that having been said, I am liking your score prediction better than my own.
What an unexpected and revealing season this has been!
—TNT