Penn State Head Coach Derby

Thus far, I’ve avoided speculation regarding Pat Kraft’s one-man search committee and its task of selecting a replacement for fired head coach James Franklin. But that’s no fun. So, what the hell — I decided to jump right into the fray with some bullshit speculation of my own.

And so, the Turkey is here with you trackside to handicap the Penn State Stakes, from the chalk to the longshots and everything in-between. If my coaching derby handicapping is anything like my horse racing handicapping was back in the day, you might want to avoid the $100 window.

Understand that I’m looking at this as an amalgamation of common sense and predicting the unpredictable — like what makes Pat Kraft tick. I obviously don’t know much about the latter, but I can cut through the emotional bullshit and instill a modicum of the former.

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Feature Race of the Season

Race 10 — “Penn State Stakes,” $65,000,000 HcpS, (special weights), 1-1/2 mile on the Hype Track, Purse: Infinite Dreams & Budget Surprises — 14 runners, post time: around 7 PM Saturday, after Rutgers walk-over. Weather clear, track fast.

LATE SCRATCHES — Eli Drinkwitz got a new, 6-year contract at Missouri, so scratch Drinkwitz! Clark Lea reportedly has a new, 6-year contract at Vandy. Scratch Clark! We’ve recalibrated the odds to reflect the late scratches.

Candidate (Stable)	Odds	Commentary
Bob Chesney (James Madison HC)	3-5	Rising-star underdog: local ties + recent success make him the front-runner if PSU wants upside without high cost.
Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri HC)	2-1	Power-5 veteran familiar with portal/NIL environment. But scratch after Mizzou bags him til 2031.
Jeff Brohm (Louisville HC)	5-2	Proven mid-tier head coach. Not flashy, but capable — could appeal if PSU wants reliability without overspending.
Matt Campbell (Iowa State HC)	6-1	Program-builder type: tough, defensively sound, consistent. Maybe too steady for fans dreaming playoffs — but that’s the tradeoff.
Kalen DeBoer (Alabama HC)	10-1	Big name from a top program. If ‘Bama stumbles in the Iron Bowl, PSU might make a run — but buyout and playoff hopes make it a steep climb.
Clark Lea (Vanderbilt HC)	12-1	Defense-first, culture-oriented coach. Scratched due to new long-term contract.
Brian Hartline (Ohio State OC)	12-1	Could surprise. Young, energetic, top recruiter — a “flash and recruiting juice” pick. Lacks HC experience, so long-shot with upside.
Brian Daboll (ex-NFL HC / OC)	20-1	Wild-card splash: NFL QB pedigree could bring polish. But college recruiting, NIL/portal dynamics — that’s unknown territory.
Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame HC)	25-1	High-ceiling candidate with national-title cred, but why leave a stable CFP contender? Still a solid outsider.
Terry Smith (Interim / internal candidate)	30-1	Familiar face, continuity, locker-room respect. Could serve as bridge hire — but modern college football may chew him up if expectations rise.
Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss HC)	200-1	Included as a “what-if” splash play. Possible only if chaos + big money hits — but mostly novelty value.
Lincoln Riley (USC head honcho.)	400-1	If he loses two more 9-figure NIL donors or gets stuck in LA freeway gridlock one afternoon too many.
Urban Meyer (former big money coach, NFL bomb)	500-1	A mudder who’s lost his luster. Why would anyone want to ride this prick? He pissed off everyone in the jockey room. A likely scratch, runs only if someone laces Pat Kraft’s scotch with LSD.
Nick Saban (retired-legend wild card)	1,000,000-1	Won’t even make it to the starting gate. A wish and a prayer for those holding on to fairy tales. Symbolic novelty bet — zero realistic shot, but guaranteed to get attention.

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The Serious Contenders — Who Has a Real Shot

Let’s start with the horses that look like they’ve actually filed for the gate: Bob Chesney, Kalen DeBoer, Eli Drinkwitz, maybe Jeff Brohm or Matt Campbell — these are the horses you root for when you believe Penn State wants a stable, competent reboot without the fireworks or circus baggage. And let’s not forget Brian Hartline, who always seems to be the subject of speculation — until he isn’t.

• Chesney’s got that “rising-star underdog” aura. He’s been winning everywhere he’s coached, and recent reports show him climbing near the top of the candidate list. He hits the sweet spot: less splash, less ego, potentially more workaday coaching grounded in fundamentals.
• DeBoer brings the pedigree of a top program — high-stakes experience, proven success, and a résumé that commands respect. As long as he’s even loosely available, he’s the “safest big swing” option. But the big question, is why the hell would he leave Alabama for Penn State?
• Drinkwitz — seasoned, Power-5 experienced, familiar with the modern minefield of transfers/NIL — appeals if the brass wants minimize disruption and dodge the portal landmines.
• Brohm or Campbell have upside, though none inspire wild optimism among the primed-for-playoff crowd. Their appeal is steadiness, not fireworks. Brohm would be the choice for a more aggressive offense and constructive use of the transfer portal, while Campbell is a plodding culture-builder.
• Hartline is an interesting case. No head coaching experience, but a superb recruiter, and poaching from tOSU is always secretly satisfying for many PSU fans.

If PSU were building a reliable machine meant to survive attrition, attrition-adjusted expectations, and recruit churn, any of these picks could get you there — with different trade-offs in style, risk, and ceiling.

Why Terry Smith Looks Like a Long Shot

Now: the case for Terry. He’s not without appeal. He’s internal, knows the locker room, players like him, and his recent interim stint gave the fans one good night: a blowout over Nebraska, 37–10, with chants of “Terry! Terry!” from the stands. But — and this is a big but — that’s not enough to survive the modern college-football pressure cooker.

First, the landscape has changed. Recruiting, NIL, transfer portal — these aren’t side shows anymore; they’re main acts. Running a college program today is like running a business: budget management, talent acquisition (via high school and portal), donor/NIL balancing, instant-result expectations. A “culture guy” or “locker-room favorite” without a long track record of building rosters, navigating NIL/portal turbulence, and winning under high stakes — that’s a hard sell.

Second, tolerance for “growing pains” is minimal. Even a 9-win season might not satisfy fans and donors who now think “playoff or bust.” If Smith gets a two- or three-year contract and fails to produce immediate traction — recruiting-wise or win-wise — the backlash will be swift. Given that, hiring an unproven internal interim as permanent head coach seems more like a “bridge hire” than a foundation for a program rebuild.

Additionally, why would Pat Kraft go to the trouble of firing James Franklin so he could hire Smith, a “Franklin Guy”? Sure, Terry is making a valiant effort to distance himself from Franklin and paint himself as a “Paterno Guy”, but still…

Finally, long-term program building may demand an outsider — someone who brings a proven system, fresh recruiting pipelines, and perhaps outside-the-box thinking. Smith’s familiarity is a strength — but in a landscape that’s pivoted hard toward financial arms races and talent shopping, familiarity alone may not cut it.

My Take — If I Were Betting Real Money

If I were a gambler placing a wager on Penn State’s next big hire, I’d lay cash on one of the “modern-era” coaches: Chesney or DeBoer or Drinkwitz — depending how deep the brass wants to swing. I’d treat Terry Smith as more of a placeholder, a “if we can’t land anyone else” fallback. Long-term? I wouldn’t expect more than a season or two before the pressure cooker blows either way.

Timing — When the New Coach Likely Gets Named

• According to recent reporting, the regular season ends Saturday with the game at Rutgers, and the buzz is that a decision could come “as soon as next week”.
• That timing makes sense: with the early signing period opening December 3 and the transfer-portal window reopening January 2, Penn State will want the new head coach in place before the portal opens — otherwise recruiting and roster-management chaos could get out of hand.
• So yes — assume the new guy gets announced before the bowl game (unless something bizarre happens).

Who Coaches the Bowl Game — and What Happens if the Hire Happens After

• If the new head coach is hired before the bowl game, he may either take over immediately or defer day-to-day coaching to the interim / coordinators, depending on how quickly he wants to install his staff and system.
• If the hire happens after the bowl game — not impossible if the search drags — then the bowl game likely gets run by the current interim staff (led by Terry Smith) or whoever the administration designates as temporary caretaker.
• Given the need to stabilize recruiting and handle portal/NIL issues — and given the sense from insiders that the school wants to move fast — I lean toward a pre-bowl announcement.

What’s In Play for Terry Smith & Current Coordinators

If the new hire comes in soon, Smith and perhaps some coordinators face a rough transition:

• Smith — currently interim head coach — will almost certainly be out unless the new boss sees value in retention. Given how speculation has framed him (as a “bridge / fallback”), I doubt he stays.
• Coordinators and other staff could be reworked too. A new head coach brings new staff, new schemes, and new loyalties. Some may be kept, but many could be let go (especially if they’re closely linked with the previous regime).
• If the bowl game happens under Smith (or interim staff), and the result is ugly — or if recruiting / portal fallout is immediate — that could accelerate turnover.

What Fans & Boosters Are Watching — Short-Term and Long-Term Stakes

• Short-term: bowl performance, first statements from the new coach, early recruiting moves, re-assurances to donors/NIL-backers, and stability during the portal opening.
• Long-term: whether the new regime can field competitive teams with roster churn; whether they attract and integrate portal transfers intelligently (not just splash NIL-driven signings); whether they can rebuild a sustainable program identity — something you’ve criticized in the past as being effectively dead.

Da Bottom Lion — No Easy Choices, But Timing Is Everything

If I were running the books: I expect the new Penn State head coach to be announced within a week of Rutgers — well before the bowl game and before the portal opens. That means a swift turnover for Smith and some of the current staff. The bowl game could either be a “welcome wagon” for the new boss (if hired early), or a swan song for the interim regime — which, if things go south, could accelerate a broader cleanup.

The coming few weeks will be high-stakes — for players, coaches, boosters, and fans alike. Be ready for some fireworks, not just fireworks-style hype. Because nothing says “Happy Holidays” like firing assistants, repelling portal raids, and watching boosters throw money around like a QVC cult meeting.

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The Turkey made it through Thanksgiving, so I will indeed darken your door after the Rutgers game. Maybe we’ll know something by then!