Archives for September 2022

Northwestern (1-3, 1-0 Big Ten) vs. #11 Penn State (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten)

James Franklin predicts rain for the game, and the Big Ten West co-Leading Wildcats are purple, hence the title, if you must know how this birdbrain thinks. I’ve survived our latest hurricane here in Central Florida’s turkey coop, so I can spew some nonsense here about Saturday’s premier Big Ten matchup, scheduled for 3:30 pm ET.

Given the predicted rain provided by the remnants of Hurricane Ian, by game time just a rainmaker, it is no wonder that tickets are available for $30. Expect a half-full Beaver Stadium, despite a projected reported attendance of 109,000.

I’m distracted by hurricane aftermath issues, so I won’t take too much of your time here.

Last Outings

You know what happened to Penn State. After a good first quarter, we experienced a laps, but then pulled ahead to win 33-14 against a plucky passel of Central Michigan Chippewas. Now, the Wildcats, after firing Scott Frost in their home opener by edging Little Red 31-28, went on a downhill slide, losing to Duke, Southern Illinois, and Miami (Ohio). With one conference win, they share the lead in the Big Ten West with Minnesota and Iowa.

The MAC RedHawks won the last game with a last-minute field goal, 17-14, after kicker Graham Nicholson had one previous attempt block and one other bonked off the upright. Northwestern gained 364 total yards, of which 257 were aerial. However, they lost the “turnover battle” coughing up two fumbles. One of those fumbles was on the failed final drive that led to Miami’s winning field goal.

Junior quarterback Ryan Hilinski, who is not the capital of Finland, was 26-44 with no TDs and no INTs. His best all-purpose weapon is fellow Junior running back Evan Hull, who leads the FBS with 170 all-purpose yards per game. Although he had an off day receiving against Miami, he is the team’s leading receiver.

Da Wedda

As I previously stated, the forecast is for “Tropical Rain”, according to AccuWeather. Pennsylvania people don’t have any concept of tropical rain unless they’ve been to the tropics. AccuWeather must be among them, as it forecasts 0.38″ of precipitation for State College, which is piddling compared to the 20″ we received here over the past 18 hours. They’re calling for 4.5 hours of rain, with 96% cloud cover. So, it’ll be a shitty, rainy day, with a high of 60 and wind gusts to 12 mph, which could affect the “interesting” kicking game on both sides of the ball.

Da Bottom Line

The Official (and mostly worthless) Turkey Poop Projection this week follows another failure. I had predicted a rout in the CMU game with Penn State covering the spread, which wasn’t the way it played out. (I should have stuck with the maxim: You can never go broke playing the spread against Penn State. CMU plus 28 points would have been a winner, winner, chicken dinner. In the past 10 games, playing the spread against Penn State would have won six times).

But whence this purple rain game? According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Northwestern has a 3.1% chance of winning the slopfest. PSU favored by 25.5 with an over/under of 51 implies a PSU victory by something like 38-13. To win this one, they must play for four quarters. I think they’ll be concentrating on the running game if conditions are as bad as Chief Meteorologist James Franklin predicts. To arrive at 38 points involves kicking a field goal, so I’m not going there. Containing Hull will be the key for Penn State and Northwestern isn’t as bad as its record suggests. Nevertheless, I’ll go with Penn State to win 34-13. They don’t cover the spread, and given the projected weather, I’d take the under.

(I’ll be back after the game if residual flooding hasn’t washed me away).

#14 Penn State 33, Central Michigan 14

I joined the Sanguinarians® for this week’s game and look at what happened! I was summarily punished for my optimistic projection of 56-6 by a lackluster game against an opponent that was better coached but replete with inferior talent. That the Nittany Lions would win was a foregone conclusion, but after a couple of quick scores, the boys on the field seemed to lose interest, allowing the Chippies to come back and tie them at 14 until shortly before the end of the first half. Then, it took a defensive play to pull ahead 21-14. From that point, PSU added another 12 points while the Chippewas were blanked.

Jim McElwain did an excellent job of preparing his troops, who clearly were hell bent on winning this game. Kudos to the Chips! They remained committed until the end.

Clifford Inconsistent

Sean Clifford started off great, like the rest of the team. Then he, too, sank into the morass of presumed indifference. He was 8-8 at the outset, then inconsistent as hell thereafter, missing open receivers even with decent pass protection by the improving offensive line. The Clifferoo wound up 22-34 for a measly 217 yards and three touchdowns. His late game garbage time replacement, Drew Allar was similarly awful, 2-5 for 20 yards. The best thing I can say is that neither was intercepted.

Running Game A-ight

The running game looked good, but Nick Singleton had an off day, gaining only 42 yards on 12 carries. He sometimes wants to go for yards on the outside where there ain’t no blocking. That might have worked at Governor Mifflin HS, but it won’t cut it in the FBS. He has the speed to get outside, but the opportunities must be there. Singleton did manage to bust one for 21 in this game. Meanwhile, fellow freshman Kaytron Allen sparkled, with 13 carries for 111 yards and a touchdown.

Defense Notwithstanding

The defense appeared to be as disinterested as the offense, allowing 363 yards, 275 of which were against the vaunted secondary. Starting CMU quarterback Daniel Richardson was 26-45 for 235 yards and two touchdowns. The mighty Penn State front seven recorded but two sacks, however, were able to come up with two picks. The Chips added 88 yards on the ground.

Third Down Suckage

Penn State was once again in the dumper third-downswise, converting five of thirteen third-down opportunities. When the “explosive” plays are working, this doesn’t matter as much, but they weren’t, and it did. Part, if not most, of the reason for this is Clifford not hitting open receivers all too frequently.

Kicking Suckage

Kicking was abysmal, with both Jake Pinegar and Sander Sahaydak missing field goals. On Penn State’s fourth TD, Pinegar’s extra point attempt was blocked by CMU. However, Barney Amor did a respectable job punting for the Nittany Lions.

Statement Game — Yeah, Right!

Well, friends, I thought that if there was a time to make the proverbial statement to confirm the Top 20 ranking, it would be this game. Instead, lots of weaknesses remained apparent. Areas that had appeared promising suffered a backslide, and some old, unpleasant habits resurfaced. Although Sanguinarians® will dismiss this as a win being a win and will say that it is OK to have an off day when you know you’re going to win, that is bullshit rationale. If you can’t pound a lesser opponent into submission, where will the grit come from when the going gets rough? The game face must be omnipresently deployed.

Any Other Saturday Surprises?

There will certainly be a reshuffling of the Top Ten as unranked Kansas State upset #6 Oklahoma 41-34 in the biggest Sooner bust of the century. #4 Michigan had a tough time with Maryland at home, eventually prevailing 34-27. That’s another group who let their guards down against a lesser opponent; the stats were quite even. Meanwhile, it was no surprise that #3 Ohio State had little trouble with the Badgers, winning 52-21, in what has been a disappointing year for Wisconsin.

Moving to the ACC, #5 Clemson and #21 Wake Forest battled to a 51-45 OT win for the Tigers in the premier ACC matchup, while suckass #25 Miami unexpectedly lost to Middle Tennessee 45-31. In the Pac-12 #7 USC barely squeaked by the Oregon State Beavers by a field goal.

And, in the SEC #8 Kentucky had trouble with lowly Northern Illinois at home, 31-23. Hog Mania will be dampened in Fayetteville, as the #10 Razorbacks went down to Texas and came back with their corkscrew tails between their legs, bowing to #23 Texas A & M, 23-21. One more thing to mention — back in the Big 12, unranked Texas Tech edged #22 Texas 37-34.

Oklahoma and Arkansas are thus likely to be sucked out of the Top Ten. Just goes to show you that rankings in the first half of the season are worth the paper they’re written on, if not less. They typically represent pipe dreams on the part of sportswriters. Remember where the weenies ranked Notre Dame at the beginning, before two losses bounced the Irish straight to football purgatory?

Get It Together, Boys

Northwestern comes to town on Saturday; Hurricane Ian will be a factor. The Big Blow is scheduled to arrive here in Florida on Thursday and will work its way through to the northeast according to Chief Meteorologist James Franklin. I frankly don’t give a shit about whether the Nittany Lions must play in driving rain; I’m only concerned for my properties here in Florida. But what I will say is, hurricane or no, the level of play must improve regardless of what we think of our opponent.

I’ll be back mid-week with a look at Northwestern if I haven’t blown away.

There Goes the Season!

Shades of Illinois 2021…