The Nittany Turkey

Primarily about Penn State football, this is a tale told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Can We At Least Beat Indiana?

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#18 Penn State vs. Indiana

Indiana HoosiersAfter close home losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, both of which involved defensive breakdowns and poor play calling late in the final quarter, one has to wonder about the team psyche as the Nittany Lions travel to Indiana. #18 Penn State (4-2, 1-2) faces traditional Big Ten bottom feeder Indiana (4-3, 1-3) in what could be a trap game before the Lions take on Murderer’s Row: Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin, in consecutive weeks.

Take Care of Business, Boys!

Bad attitudes and sloppiness could conspire to do the unthinkable. A loss to Indiana would sink the season for Penn State. Looking past this game, they can anticipate at least two more losses (to Iowa and Michigan). Only the Rutgers game is anything close to a guaranteed victory for State, if there is such a thing.

So, PSU must absolutely handle the Indiana Hoosiers! I exaggerated a bit when I called them bottom-feeders. I would place Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Rutgers at the very bottom of the Big Ten. Indiana has a chance to become bowl eligible. They only need two wins to get there, with remaining games being PSU, Minnesota, Maryland, Michigan, and Purdue. They have every incentive to want to win this game on their home turf.

So, What’s the Deal with Indiana?

The Hoosiers rank 9th in rushing in the Big Ten, averaging 4.1 ypc. So, you could say they’re a passing team, ranking #4 in that category, behind tOSU, Purdue, and Northwestern. Passing is the bailiwick of sophomore QB Peyton Ramsey, whose completion rate is a sparkling 68% (10th nationally), but his passing has been good for only 6.42 yards per attempt, with 12 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. But with that kind of passing, you would expect that they do relatively well with third down conversions, which they do, 42.7%. (Penn State sucks worse — 37.5%).

On defense, Indiana is slightly suckier than PSU against the run, ranking 67th nationally. Against the pass, they’re 71st in passing yards allowed.

They get penalized a lot and they can cough up the ball. So given these two teams’ history in that area, this could be another sloppy game.

Last Outing

In the last game against Iowa, the Hawkeyes never trailed, eventually blowing out the Hoosiers in Bloomington, 42-16.

In that game, Indiana had only 67 yards rushing. Total yards were 479 to 330 in favor of the visitors. Both teams were heavily penalized. Indiana had 10 for 99 yards. They also were intercepted twice.

Da Wedda

Fall has fung (rhymes with spring has sprung), and the high will be 59 on a mostly sunny day.

Da Bottom Line

Here we go with the always Wong, never white Official Turkey Poop Prognostication. I’ll make this one short and sweet, although it might constitute wishful thinking. We gotta win this one, boys and girls. If you aren’t too tired from watching the Michigan – Moo U. game, watch this one. It won’t be too exciting, but we might just win for a change.

Current odds favor Penn State by 14.5 with an over/under of 61. Remember that PSU was favored over Moo U. by two touchdowns and you know what happened there. But Indiana is not Moo U. Interpreting the line gives up a formulaic approximation of a 38-23 outcome. Unless the team psyche is really in the dumpster, I think Indiana will shoot itself in the foot. Penn State won’t be elite or great, but they’ll sloppily win this super bowl, 42-24, and you should take the over.

I’ll be back after the game with some celebratory comments.

Lemons

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Michigan State 21, Penn State 17

It was yet another game where the Nittany Lions had the lead deep in the final quarter but couldn’t close it out. Yea, verily, it was yet another game with a defensive breakdown at a crucial game juncture. For icing on the cake, it was yet another game with special teams breakdowns. All these conspired with poor offensive point production to produce yet another heartbreaking, close loss. Michigan State prevailed 21-17 before a striped-out Homecoming six-figure crowd at St. Joe Memorial-Penndot Stadium at Beaver.

This fourth quarter give-up, coupled with sloppy play and bad play calling, is becoming standard practice for Penn State.

Although Miles Sanders had a breakout day after having been shut down by tOSU two weeks ago, the Lions could produce only 17 points, too few for this shaky defense to protect. In spite of gaining 397 total yards, Penn State was thwarted by an opportunistic Moo U. defense that was there when it needed to be, allowing PSU only three third-down conversions in fourteen tries and forcing two turnovers. Penn State’s only fourth-down attempt at a crucial juncture was also predictably thwarted by the Spartans.

Moo U. lacked the services of their stud running back LJ Scott, and they also have been riddled by injuries on the offensive line. Yet the Nittany Lion defense could not stop them. And when Michigan State had to resort to a trick play, the special teams guys could not stop them.

Balls to the Wall vs. Ballsless

Mark D’Antonio coached his team to play balls-to-the-wall, go-for-broke football. It worked. On the other sideline, James Franklin had no answers. A fake punt early caught the defense sleeping. Franklin said they practiced it, but didn’t execute. Later, a fake field goal didn’t work. D’Antonio was willing to throw everything at PSU but the kitchen sink.

Decreasing Relevance

In what one pseudo-sports journalist described last year as an “increasingly irrelevant statistic”, Moo U. dominated time of possession 34:12 to 25:48. It makes sense that an inherently shaky Penn State defense was tired in the fourth quarter — too tired for the team’s best defensive back to make a game winning interception that would have stopped Brian Lewerke’s final drive for the lead.

Sloppiness

Turnovers’ll kill ya. PSU had two. Penalties’ll kill ya. PSU had six versus Moo U’s three. Crappy special teams’ll kill ya. PSU allowed one huge fourth down conversion on a fake punt and PSU’s freshman kicker Jake Pinegar doinked one off the goal post from 37 yards. Crappy defense’ll kill ya. PSU’s defense gave up 418 yards, including yet another long desperation touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter: 76 yards on 8 plays in one minute. Stupid coaching’ll kill ya. Yeah, I mean that dumbass fourth down call.

The Nittany Lions died a thousand deaths in this game.

The offense has some unexpected success with the running game, but Trace McSorley managed only 192 yards passing. That was ass-backward, given that coming into the game the Moo U. rush defense was #1 nationally and its pass defense gave up enough yards to be ranked #122.

Franklin Wasn’t Talking about Great Teams

In his post-game comments, James Franklin avoided talking about PSU being a great team and being beaten by an elite team. He got right down to basics: poor offensive execution, poor defensive execution, and poor special teams execution. Three lemons. No lemonade to be seen anywhere. Yet another winnable “Super Bowl” squandered.

After the game, Mark D’Antonio smiled and his face didn’t break as expected. His underpowered team had pulled off a top-ten upset.

Penn State dropped to #18 in the AP poll. Moo U. is at #22, poised to play spoiler for Ohio State, Michigan, or both.

Predictor of the Week

K. John was once again our winning predictor, although we had very few entries this week. I guess shock had set in after the OSU loss. K. John predicted a PSU win 23-20, but in spite of picking the wrong winner he felt it would be close because the two teams were pretty evenly matched. He nailed the victory margin, too.

On to Indiana

Yeah, and they better not be pouting for the Hoosiers or there could be some nasty surprises awaiting them. After Indiana, there’s that stretch we thought might have a couple of little hurdles to jump over. Well, I was thinking that at the beginning of the season. Now, after half the season is over, those hurdles are looking like Mt. Everest.

#19 Iowa, #6 Michigan (in da Big House), and #23 Wisconsin, followed by a bye week with Rutgers, are who lie ahead. Are we still speculating that this team could finish the regular season 10-2? Hell, even my 9-3 prognostication looks shaky at this point.

I’ll be back during the week with a few choice comments about the forthcoming trip to Hoosierville.

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