The Nittany Turkey

Primarily about Penn State football, this is a tale told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

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Wisconsin Ramblings

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Wisconsin BadgersFirst of all, let’s get this out of the way.

There. Don’t I feel better now?

No, not really. This Turkey has a sinking feeling in the pit of his capacious stomach, having been subjected to the torture of the 2007 what’s gonna happen next Nittany Lions. I need some Prevacid, ferchrissakes. I don’t want to get into speculation about who’s going to jail, who’s in Paterno’s doghouse, who punched whom, or who got wasted on Red Stripe. This post is about the forthcoming Wisconsin game.

It’s Homecoming. Homecoming games are supposed to be against beatable opposition. Is Wisconsin beatable? I think so, but a lot of things will have to go right. This is neither a game for the molasses-in-January offensive start-up that has been characteristic of the past six games, nor a game for the typical fumbles, interceptions, and penalties we’ve seen in the first half of the season. ??????? ??? ??? ????? Play error-free ball and beat Wisconsin. ???? ????? Sounds pretty simple, but with the veritable plethora of off-field distractions, suspensions, etc., it might be a tall order. But I digress again.

The Badgers (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Illinois. Sound familiar? Yeah, well Penn State and Wisconsin are in the same boat in that respect, only the Nittany Lions have an intervening win over Iowa to get them feeling cocky again. Wisconsin has a mediocre defense that is just begging to be beaten deep by Morelli and his talented receivers. They rank #81 in pass efficiency defense. Their front seven is no great shakes against the run, either, ranking #62. Last week, they gave up 289 rushing yards to Illinois. ???? ???? ??? ??? ???? So, it would seem as if our offense, such as it is, will have its opportunities if it can play error free. Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s offense might have been fearsome at one point, but right now their big weapons are Travis Beckum at tight end and a hobbled P.J. Hill. Luke Swan, the talented senior wide receiver is injured and out for the year. Even the personal injury lawyers or the lawyers for disability claims can’t help. Last week against Illinois, Beckum and Hill accounted for much of the offense, even though Hill sat out quite a few snaps. Beckum had 160 yards, while Hill had 105 all-purpose yards and a touchdown.

Beckum worries me, and with Hill semi-healthy, I would expect Beckum to get the ball a lot. Last week, he had 11 receptions and he’s currently tied for 18th in the country in number of receptions. The problem here, in this Turkey’s opinion is that our linebackers are not the greatest at pass defense. I would put my money on them stopping Hill, but I think that they can be consistently beaten by 6’4″, 224 lb Beckum. On the other hand, the Nittany Lions rank #16 in pass efficiency defense and #5 in total defense. So, if they play well, they can keep us in the game, leaving it up to our much maligned offense to somehow manage to score some points.

With respect to special teams, Penn State leads the Big Ten in net punting yards and is #4 in the nation in that category, whereas Wisconsin ranks #88. The Badgers rank #73 and #90 in punt returns and kickoff returns, respectively. Perhaps, for a change, the Nittany Lions won’t be giving up so many yards on kickoff coverage.

And now, for the long awaited Official Turkey Poop Prediction. You’ve waded through all that bull above, so you deserve to be rewarded with a long-winded prediction to throw your rotten tomatoes at. The gamblers have installed Penn State as a 7-point favorite, with an over/under of 44.5. That works out to Penn State winning by the score of 26-19. You know, that looks pretty good to me. I think that if we can’t score 27 on Wisconsin, then we deserve to lose. After all, The Citadel rang up 31 on them. So did Illinois, while Michigan State hit them for 34. The Nittany Lions managed to score 27 on Iowa, but their defense sucks worse than Wisconsin’s. Still, I think that this week might be the week that Morelli manages to put together an error-free game. If he does, the prediction is PSU 27, Wisconsin 20. If he and his teammates do not, then we lose. Simple as that.

We’ve got the opportunity to make a statement here. It’s Homecoming. P.J. Hill has a groin injury and isn’t 100%. Luke Swan is on the injured list. Austin Scott is not playing (thus, fewer fumbles and no dancing behind the LOS). Things are looking good for us here. If we blow this chance, team morale goes completely down the toilet, we probably lose on the road at Indiana, and we most assuredly lose to Ohio State the following week. So, let’s not blow this chance.

Lions on the Road at Illinois

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Fighting IlliniHere’s something new—a Big Ten road game in which Penn State is a three-point favorite. Well, not so new. Didn’t come out too well the last time we had that situation, did it? Accordingly, let’s try not to underestimate Illinois (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten). They’re not the non-pugilistic Illini of yesteryear.

Are they still the “Fighting Illini” or just the Illini? Has the NCAA succeeded in cleansing their nickname and banishing their mascot, Chief Illiniwek? I don’t know, but see my commentary last year if you want some background on this ridiculous crapola. Last year’s game, by the way, wound up in the “W” column for Dear Old State, being homecoming and all. The final score was 26-12, but it was a lot closer than that score suggests.

Illinois head coach Ron Zook, after having been summarily run out of the Sunshine State, has done one helluva job of putting a team together at Illinois. They have an excellent running game and a good defense. Their weaknesses are the kicking game and the passing offense.

So, let’s start by predicting what Penn State’s offense will look like. Um, it will look pretty much like last week’s. There’s a difference, though. Illinois has a competent pass rush, and might be in Morelli’s face more than Michigan was. (It was amazing that our inept offensive line protected Morelli as well as it did, but that was more due to the fact that Michigan sucked than that our line performed above itself.) In any case, we’ll see the running game (or lack of same) featured once again, which pretty much means no offense until the second half. And if Morelli takes his usual six seconds to find a receiver to throw to, we’ll see a lot of rushes and sacks. (Can it really be called a “rush” if he’s sitting back there with his thumbs up his ass not seeing the field? But I digress.) So, plodding along, Penn State will either dig a hole for itself or exit the first half with a slim lead. Ho hum. Same old shit.

Meanwhile, Illinois’ offense is built around a serviceable running game. Juice Williams is a good option quarterback who can burn opponents with the run and Rashard Mendenhall is one of the top tailbacks in the Big Ten. Williams was a green freshman last year, and we kept him corraled, but Mendenhall was unstoppable, with 14 carries for 161 yards and a touchdown. Last week, he lit up Indiana for 214 yards, and he’s rushed for 536 yards thus far this season. He’ll be getting a lot of carries against Penn State, as Zook & Co. have undoubtedly watched the films of the Mike Hart ballet from last week. Of course, if they did, they’ve seen that Hart had to work hard to grind it out against the excellent Penn State front seven, and the same will apply to Mendenhall. The yards gained will not be easy ones, and he’ll need to have at least 100 of them to do enough damage to put this game in jeopardy. Williams, of course, is slippery and tricky, which can cause trouble if this defense doesn’t stay at home or overcommits. However, this Turkey thinks that the Juicemeister is in for a long, painful day.

To be honest, this game worries me, primarily because it is now clear that our offense sucks beyond mere suckage. At the Tuesday press conference, Paterno wouldn’t say whether Austin Scott would start—he was droning on about Scott having been patient and earning his chance to play. Well, hell, what does he have to do to un-earn that chance if three fumbles in two games doesn’t do it for him? So, we’ll see either Scott or Kinlaw doing the usual thing unless Illinois should happen to get lucky and score early. Illinois’ best hope is to shut down the running game, such as it is, to force Morelli to throw. (Never thought we’d be so weak at the passing game with big-arm Morelli and those vaunted receivers, did you? Hell, we couldn’t even blame last week’s screw-ups on the offensive line; Morelli underperformed all by himself.) This has the smell of a close, low scoring game, and I’m not even sure which way it will go. My opinion of our offense has fallen precipitously in the past couple of weeks, leading to a lack of confidence. Once again, I hope they prove me wrong.

And now, the Official Turkey Poop Prognostication, a regular feature of this column, and usually wrong. But what the hell—everyone makes predictions. We all know how that game works. You get it right and bragging rights accrue to you. You mouth off and let ’em all know how right you were. You get it wrong and you shut up. You disavow any knowledge of the prediction. You minimize your screw-up and move on. Anyhow, I can no longer predict any final scores in which Penn State’s point production gets out of the teens. The offense just seems that piss poor to me. So, here’s my no-risk prediction for this game. Penn State 16, Illinois 12. (I hope the damn offense can manage to score 16 lousy points—I mean, even Syracuse put 20 on Illinois! Sheeeeeit.)