The Nittany Turkey

Primarily about Penn State football, this is a tale told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

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The Hype Ends Here

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Ohio State BuckeyesEverybody is getting all worked up for the forthcoming Ohio State game. ESPN/ABC has been promoting the hell out of it, and pseudo-expert wannabes far and wide who never actually coached or played a game at this level have been offering “solutions” to the puzzle of how to beat the big, bad Buckeyes, competing for bragging rights if they coincidentally get it right or for invisibility rights if they don’t. It’s a stupid-ass child’s game we continually play. Not this Turkey, who not only doesn’t have the slightest clue as to how to win this game but also is so old that by next week he’ll forget what his prediction was this week. Nevertheless, I do have some unfounded and impertinent opinions, which I’ll be glad to offer to you forthwith.

First of all, I’ll state the obvious. No one wins games like this if they turn the pigskin over excessively. In a close game in which one unrequited turnover could mean the difference, the turnover ratio had better be positive. Thus far this season, both the Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions stand dead even in the middle of the FBS (the Division formerly known as I-A) with a 0.0 average turnover ratio. Interestingly enough, however, two interceptions last week by Michigan State resulted in 14 points for the Spartans in their losing effort at the Horseshoe, whereas three second-half turnovers by the Hoosiers allowed the Nittany Lions to put nine points on the scoreboard, which should have been 21. Thus, we’re headed in the right direction here.

We better do well somewhere because our still anemic offense, with all its red-zone difficulties, will find points hard to come by against the stingy Scarlet & Gray defense. The formidable run defense will threaten to put the clamps on Kinlaw and Royster, particularly if Mike Lucian sits the game out, as Paterno suggested he would. His backups are somewhat less capable. Shaw is recovering from an injury and has not practiced much, while Wisniewski is a true freshman. In this situation, the injured person can consult a law firm like Kennewick Church & Page PLLC to claim the compensation. The victim can also consider consulting the car accident attorneys who can help the victims to claim compensation for the losses and the damages caused. You can look into this link to know more baout the documents necessary for claim for injury compensation. In any case, I do not see the Penn State offensive line, no matter how “jelled” they are, manhandling the Ohio State defensive front seven. Quite the contrary. They’ve got to figure out a way to keep Vernon Gholston out of Morelli’s face. The Lions rank 63rd in sacks allowed. Furthermore, the loss of Matt Hahn means the Nittany Lions are without an experienced contributer to multiple facets of the rushing offense. He caught passes, too. Lawlor will not be able to fill his shoes in this game. And someone either better teach Quarless to block or put Shuler in there for run blocking, while telegraphing tight end pass plays when Quarless is in there. Until Quarless becomes a complete lineman/receiver (remember Kyle Brady? Sean McHugh? John Gilmore?), his great size and quickness will be available only part-time. Anyhow, I digress. With two conservative coaches running this show, the rushing game becomes all important. Alas, I don’t think that Penn State will have much of a rushing game, given the OSU defense and the state of the Nittany Lion offensive line.

So, the strategy employed against Iowa and Indiana might be required to stand a chance against the Buckeyes. Short passes to spread the field a bit. Only problem there is that Ohio State ranks #1 in pass efficiency defense. Cool, so how the hell does Penn State get any points if it can’t run and can’t pass on OSU’s defense? Answer: our defense must score points. Michigan State’s did, but the offense provided only 3 of the 17 points; in the end they went down 24-17. So, I’ll amend my answer to the question I asked myself. Answer: our defense must score enough points. They must force turnovers.

The defense is one cause for optimism. Maurice Evans has become a monster of a pass defender, ranking second in the division and first in the conference in that category. He needs to be in Todd Boeckman’s jockstrap on every passing play, but Evans will probably be double-teamed, especially now that he has the visibility of a Big Ten Player of the Week. The pressure on Boeckman is essential, as he is ranked #7 in the division in pass efficiency. By virtue of Evans’ performance against the Hoosiers, the Nittany Lions wrested the #1 ranking in sacks from Indiana, the former holder of that distinction. Moving to the linebackers, the usually hyperactive Connor was almost invisible in the Indiana game, but he’ll be back. Rumor has it that is nursing a minor injury. Sean Lee has always been there this year. The cause for concern is the front four in general. Injuries have thinned the initially deep defensive line. I don’t agree with the other bullshitters who say that Odrick’s injury won’t hurt the Nittany Lions. Injuries hurt, no matter if they are Texas oilfield accidents or sports. What have we got? A bottomless cup of first-string linemen? Hell no, we don’t. With Ohio State running Beanie Wells at them all day, these guys are going to get tired and coaches are going to have to be digging deeper and deeper for backups. Furthermore, as Joe admitted at the Tuesday press conference, the defensive playbook will have to be pared down to accommodate the less experienced players. That said (I hate scribes who write “that said”), I think the Lion front seven are good enough to put a crimp in the Beanster’s plans. Penn State is still #9 in rushing defense. Holding Wells under 100 yards will make that ranking more meaningful.

The pass defense worries me. That damn soft Sandusky zone didn’t look too swift against Indiana last week, did it? Justin King—what’s up with him and his shoulder? He’s playing as soft as a baby’s ass. He’s missing tackles. He’s getting turned around. Ohio State doesn’t have what Paterno calls an 8’2″ receiver; however, they have pretty solid receivers in the 6’3″ tandem of Brian and Brian (Robiskie and Hartline). They get the job done. If we slow down Chris Wells, we have to expect these guys to be getting the ball more. Our soft-hitting, middle of the pack secondary might prove to be fertile stomping grounds for this duo.

Meanwhile, back at the offensive ranch, it is likely that Penn State will need the vertical pass. The Nittany Lions will be frustrated at the line of scrimmage and the offensive line will have its hands full with the pass rush. One thing we can throw at the Buckeyes is superior receivers. Morelli must play a mature game and quickly make his reads. He must be opportunistic. If a receiver gets open deep behind the safeties, Morelli has got to see him and nail the pass. There is no margin for error. Let us have no repeat of last year’s game.

The category that sticks out like a sore thumb in the NCAA stat book is OSU’s horrendous #119 ranking in kickoff returns. The Penn State crappy kickoff return coverage might actually be adequate for a change.

Ohio State is favored by four, and to this Turkey, it doesn’t look that close. The loss of Hahn and Odrick, the possible loss of Lucian, and the shaky secondary do not portend well for a winning result. Looking around the web at predictions, it seems like everyone is expecting a low scoring game, with the bookies settling on an over/under of 39.5. That, coupled with the spread, equates to about a 21-17 game. I’ve seen predictions as low as 7-3.

That brings us once again to the Totally Meaningless Official Turkey Poop Prediction and Pigskin Prophecy. I really want Penn State to win, and I’m not scared by a #1 ranking, especially one that came in through the back door. I just think that Ohio State has few perceptible weaknesses playing at this level, whereas the Nittany Lions have quite a few. This is really the first “test” for Ohio State according to the pundits. I hope they flunk it so they don’t make the Big Ten look bad once again this year in the Allstate BCS Championship commercialfest. Still, I have to stick with my intuition. Ohio State 20, Penn State 13.

Maintain the Mo

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Indiana HoosiersThe mood among the Penn State fan base is optimistic following the Nittany Lions’ dismantling of Wisconsin, and for good reason. The offensive game seems to be coming together; Anthony Morelli appears confident; our offensive line is jelling, to use a trite, oft-abused sportswriter word (jell this!); our offensive brain trust has shown (or perhaps they have been shown) that an aggressive offensive plan actually works to their advantage; and, finally, the offensive squad made no major mistakes. This all equates to a good, warm, fuzzy feeling.

That feeling is fragile. Everybody I’ve talked to, every blogster I’ve read, and every legitimate sports pundit I’ve encountered tells me that Penn State will beat Indiana. The bookies are reflecting that the betting public thinks that the Nittany Lions are better than the Hoosiers by 7.5 points as I write this. I’m hearing canaries sing and a basket with a cute little fuzzy kitten was just delivered to my door. Life is wonnnnnnnnderful!

But just as surely as that cute little fuzzy kitten will grow into a single-mindedly bloodthirsty, sharp clawed killer cat that will surely eat the damn canary if given half a chance, our sweet sunshine dreams can rapidly turn into ugly, troubling nightmares if the offense fails to live up to the promise provided by the wonderful Wisconsin win come high noon on Saturday. Our euphoria is fragile indeed, as it has been throughout the past decade. We’ve seen too much go wrong not to harbor nagging doubts, which never manage to stay buried under unbridled optimism for very long after a win. We subconsciously wait for the inevitable screw-up. When will the bubble burst?

Much as even the most unbridled optimists among us unwittingly have been trained to expect the worst, having been subjected to the preponderance of underachieving performances of the past decade, it will take several repetitions of the Wisconsin experience to train us to expect the best. We are riding an emotional yo-yo. Consistency has not been a great quality of the 2007 Nittany Lions, except that for the first six games the offense got off to a consistently slow start. Negative consistency ain’t what we need. Given our current fan psyche, if we lose a game, no matter how hard we fight and no matter how wonderfully our opponent performs, we’ll quickly label the Wisconsin win a fluke and declare that we have sucked all along. We’ll say that this loss was merely regression to the mean and it will be that much harder to climb out of the hole we dig for ourselves.

I’m not saying we’re kidding ourselves thinking that with the Wisconsin win the storm has passed and the skies ahead are blue. I’m merely saying that many of us would like to see proof in the form of a repeat performance against a team with a winning record in a game played somewhere other than Beaver Stadium. Otherwise, the warm fuzzies will be evanescent once again and we’ll repeat the cycle ad nauseam. If the Nittany Lions either lose to the Hoosiers or win ugly, not only will the fans’ confidence be shattered, but also the team’s confidence in itself will evaporate—just in time for the slug-fest with #1 Ohio State a week from Saturday.

So, yes, it’s one week at a time, and to look past this important game to Ohio State would be to court disaster. On to this week’s game.

About the Hoosiers

The Indiana Hoosiers (5-2, 2-2 Big Ten) have a record identical to ours at this point. Thus, they are one win away from bowl eligibility, which is quite a happy thing for the folks in Bloomington, who are quite used to biding their time by watching losing efforts—or not watching them—on the football field while they wait for basketball season to begin. However, this year is a special year for the football Hoosiers. Their coach through last season, Terry Hoeppner, died of complications due to a brain tumor, so it is an emotional time for the team. The new coach, Bill Lynch, has done a surprisingly good job to date continuing the team-building effort started by Hoeppner in his two years at IU.

This will not be a walkover—no “bye week”—as we used to consider Indiana.

Let’s look at the Indiana offense. In sophomore Kellen Lewis, the Hoosiers have an option quarterback who is bound to give us fits, as did Illinois’ Juice Williams. However, unlike Illinois, Lewis doesn’t have an established stud running back to pitch to. Lewis is averaging 67 yards per game rushing, while junior running back Marcus Thigpen is averaging only 38 yards per game on the ground. Look for our front seven to shut down the Hoosier running game, which is ranked 42nd in the Division Formerly Known as I-A. Indiana’s offense is balanced but Lewis’ receivers are relatively inexperienced: a junior and two sophomores. They rank #53 nationally in passing offense. As the Penn State defense won’t allow the run and will dare Lewis to throw, our secondary had better be on its game, but this Turkey believes that they will keep the Hoosier wide receivers under control.

Defensively, the Hoosiers had been surprisingly good until last weekend’s defensive melt-down in East Lansing, in which Michigan State scored 52 points, which dropped the total defense ranking down to #63 nationally. However, you might still be surprised to learn that the Indiana defense is leading the nation in quarterback sacks, averaging over 4.5 per game. (Penn State is tied for second with 4.14.) If our offensive brain-trust chews on some peyote, we might see a wide-open game with the potential to score prolifically. On the other hand, if they watch the Indiana vs. Michigan State tape, see that Moo U’s rushing yardage practically doubled their passing output, note that one IU safety had 22 tackles, and conclude that we have to run all day, we’re in the latrine again. It would be great to be wrong about that and to see the ball thrown down-field. Establish the pass to set up the run, guys! To fulfill our dreams, the newly respectable offensive line will have to provide enough protection for Morelli to get the ball away, and Morelli’s reactions will have to be sharp and his throws on the money. We now know that he can do it. We’re actually on the verge of expecting it. A lot depends on the game plan. We also know that Rodney Kinlaw and Evan Royster can do the job just in case the coaches choose the Woody Hayes Memorial Game Plan.

On special teams, Indiana is an interesting mesh for our Nittany Lions, who are ranked #3 in net punting. The Hoosiers rank #7 in punt returns. So, the return coverage better be there.

Looking through Indiana’s 5-2 start, we must note that the five wins have been over the likes of Indiana State, Western Michigan, Akron, Iowa, and Minnesota, while the losses were at home to Illinois and on the road at Michigan State. As Iowa and Minnesota are awful this year, both of the Hoosiers’ real Big Ten tests, the Illini and the Spartans, were abject failures, with 79 points scored against IU in those two games.

What happens now?

We’re all sitting on pins and needles waiting for the first Nittany Lion possession on Saturday, wanting to see if Morelli comes out throwing. Will our offensive geniuses tighten up and go into road mode, playing not to lose, as in the Michigan game? Or will they see some value in opening it up, as in the Wisconsin masterpiece? Will Morelli be loose as a goose or tight as a drum? Will the offensive line be effective against the sack-happy Hoosiers? Now that the demon represented by Austin Scott has been exorcised, will the whole team continue to act as if an onerous weight has been lifted off its collective shoulders? Will the banged-up defensive line be as effective as it was before the injuries to Hayes and Odrick? And will the Nittany Lions actually look like they want to play to win? Will they display fire on the sidelines and in the game, especially while playing on the road with a noon start? They will have to do all those things to preserve the momentum established by the Wisconsin win. We now know that this team can perform well; we just need to see them do it a few more times before we completely believe in the beleaguered 2007 Nittany Lions.

So that brings us to the Nittany Turkey’s Official Turkey Poop Prediction. Before I put some numbers on this thing, I have to say that I’m tired of swaying in the breeze about this bunch of kids. I want to believe in them. I want the rest of the season to go by without another nefarious incident. I want the Nittany Lions to win the rest of their games. However, the Rolling Stones told me that I can’t always get what I want. So, the Turkey must throttle down his expectations to take this one game at a time. I’ve got a positive feeling about this game, folks, and I feel the groundswell of fan support champing at the bit to get loose. Another convincing win will put Big Mr. Mo right on track for the head-on collision with the pack-leading Buckeyes. I like that idea. Please Mista Jay and Mista Galen, let ’em play! On Homecoming Day for Indiana, I’m going for the peyote option: it will be Penn State 45, Indiana 17.

Comfortable at Home

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The title above represents my impression of the Wisconsin game: a comfortable win in comfortable environs, played with a high comfort level among comfortable players. The coaching even seemed more comfortable than usual. I suppose that a blowout win gives the appearance of comfort at all levels, but this Turkey thinks there’s more to it than just its superficial aspect. This team has indeed somehow become more comfortable. And before we leave this ad nauseum abuse of the comfort theme behind, let me just say that the 109,000+ fans no doubt consumed great quantities of liquid comfort on Saturday night in State College.

OK, the facts. State beat #19 Wisconsin 38-7 to bring both schools’ records to 5-2 overall and 2-2 in the Big Ten. Wisconsin’s vaunted running game was effectively curtailed by the Nittany Lions, with P.J. Hill held to a season low 70 yards. Penn State consistently won the battle of the trenches. The PSU Blogosphere’s favorite whipping boy, Anthony Morelli, looked more like a real quarterback, going 16-28 for 216 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. And Rodney Kinlaw, the mid-season replacement for the deposed Austin Scott, had another fine day, as did his backup, Evan Royster, with 115 and 68 yards, respectively, a touchdown each, and no fumbles.

Morelli kept hitting Terrell Golden—primarily because Terrell Golden was consistently wide open, a forgotten man in Wisconsin’s game plan. With the defense busy covering Butler, Norwood, and Williams, Golden got a bunch of easy throws early in the game until Wisconsin reacted—slowly. Morelli looked much more poised in his stationary pocket presence (which moves about as much as a concrete bunker). ??? ????? He seemed—what’s the word I abused above? ????? ????????? ???????? —comfortable out there.

Of course, the Nittany Lions’ defense seemed to have forgotten about true freshman Kyle Jefferson because, I suppose, they were too worried about Travis Beckum. Jefferson wound up with six receptions for 124 yards, whereas Beckum caught five for 70 yards.

It was good to see both offensive and defensive lines performing well. This Turkey had previously thought that the offensive line was a bust from Day One this year, and that they would never come together. Well, wonder of wonders, they played like men out there against Wisconsin, not like the McCabe Sisters.

The game plan was significantly more wide-open than what we’re accustomed to. The Offensive Brain Trust (OBT) felt that they could throw on Wisconsin’s much-maligned secondary. So that’s what they did. Even on first down. It was refreshing to watch this brand of football, and I hope that it gives the OBT enough confidence to employ it in the future. (Yeah, I know—next week we are on the road in Indiana and we’ll come out running up the gut…)

Both teams had issues that held them back. Wisconsin’s P.J. Hill had a nagging groin injury, and the Badgers’ best wide receiver, Luke Swan, is out for the season. The Nittany Lions had off-field issues too numerous to mention here, but covered well elsewhere. Interestingly enough, Chris Baker and Knowledge Timmons, both rumored by the usual on-line wonks to be suspended, actually played in this game, while Chris Bell and Phil Taylor did not. However, Baker and Timmons usually are starters, and both sat for the first half. Bell and Taylor practiced on Wednesday, but Baker and Timmons were there in street clothes. ??? ?????? ??? ???????? Paterno would only sat that Bell and Taylor were in his doghouse. These four are all rumored to be complicit in the Sunday morning rumble at the HUB following the Iowa game.

All in all, it was a satisfying and refreshing win in the wake of the continual negative publicity the program has received of late. If this is a harbinger of things to come, the Nittany Lions could win all of their remaing games but one, that one being Ohio State the week after next. Still, combined with the well-played Wisconsin game, a successful road trip to Indiana could prove inspirational enough to give the Lions the confidence needed to fight the Buckeyes to the death. After all, undefeated teams are being knocked off right and left this year, so OSU’s number might well be up in a fortnight. But I digress. The road trip to Indiana comes first and if there’s too much looking past it to the Ohio State game, then it will become a trap game. So, cuidado, hombres! I’ll be back with a look at that game on Wednesday.

More Turmoil in the Top 10

Does anyone want to win the Still Somewhat Mythical National Championship (SSMNC) this year? Yesterday saw yet a couple more high-profile losses by heretofore undefeated teams. LSU, formerly #1, went down to #17 Kentucky in triple-overtime. Unranked Oregon State beat #2 Cal. So who’s left undefeated? Ohio State, Boston College, South Florida, and Hawaii. I would expect that the rankings this week will be OSU #1, BC #2, and USF #3, followed by one or more one-loss teams, and then Hawaii (because they’re a more lightly regarded WAC team). However, if Ohio State should happen to lose to either Penn State, Wisconsin, or Michigan, let’s say, and BC loses to Virginia Tech, FSU, or Miami, we might be looking at a SSMNC game involving USF and Hawaii. That would be retarded.