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Regression to the Mean

Posted on October 4, 2010 Written by The Nittany Turkey

This post is indeed about the October 2 football game pitting Penn State against the University of Iowa. After re-reading it, I decided to clarify that early before I start on my characteristic tangential flights of fancy. Between the cryptic, statistically oriented headline and the aforementioned digressions, you might have thought that this was an article about how to successfully pick your nose or something. Don’t worry, though. We’ll get there eventually.

I’m not going to use that French d-phrase that means a feeling of having been somewhere before because it’s been popping up all over the blogosphere and the legitimate media. The advantage of being last man in is that I can avoid the hackneyed pitfalls of all the others who have been there before me. Of course, the disadvantage of being sloppy last is that by the time my game comments are published everybody is already sick and tired of reading about the mess of a game they watched the prior Saturday.

As procrastinatorial as I might tend to be, however, the veritable champion of delayed coverage is Phil Grosz, who publishes one of the more respected independent Nittany Lions sports publications, Blue White Illustrated (BWI). Phil’s spiel is delayed a week, so while some parts of the current BWI address the Iowa game, his feature column still speaks of the Temple game. Almost makes a guy not want to read about it, but I find humor in the situation and in knowing that Phil will inevitably find comparisons to the 1982 team, which he has been doing for time immemorial. Here’s a guy whose career is built on his intimate knowledge of the 1982 team. Just kidding. But I don’t think an old guy with white hair should be sporting a Beatle haircut, either, unless he’s Moe of the Three Stooges. Alas, I digress.

Do you see where procrastination leads? Can you tell that I’m blocking? Oy vey, am I ever blocking. I really don’t want to write about that crappy game on Saturday. But duty calls and I will heed. Here goes.

As expected, the Penn State Nittany Lions (3-2, 0-1 Big Ten) lost to the Iowa Hawkeyes (4-1, 1-0 Big Ten) in Kinnick Stadium on Saturday night before a sellout crowd and a national TV audience on ESPN. The score was 24-3, but it wasn’t that close. For their non performance this week, the Lions were dropped from the polls’ Top 25, while the Hawkeyes moved up to #15 in both polls. Penn State did not cover the spread, but I should have told you to take the “under”. The over/under was 40. My prediction of 27-13 in Iowa’s favor sadly gave too much credit to the Nittany Lions for a nonexistent red zone offense.

It was homecoming weekend in Iowa City. The good alumni of the University of Iowa got one helluva homecoming show at the behest of our hapless Nittany Lions.

Royster is tackled
Tough day to run.

Iowa went into the game with the #1 defense in the FBS division and it showed. My pre-game comments suggested that both teams would have to earn their points through the air, as both rushing defenses were tough. One proved to be a pretender, and you know which one that was. Iowa rushed for a respectable 122 yards, while Penn State sputtered to a lowly 54 yards on 23 attempts for an average of 2.3 measly yards per carry. The first quarter, in which the Lions had a net one yard rushing, was absolutely a parody of a running game, with all due credit to Iowa’s front seven. Yes, readers, Iowa is the legitimate defense and Penn State is the pretender. The only reason that Iowa sank to #2 in total defense after this past weekend is that the Crimson Tide slid past them. Still a pretty respectable place to be. They moved up from #3 rushing defense to #2. Against that tough defense, Evan Royster had 56 yards; the rest of the backfield netted out to -2 yards. I think you can say that the offensive line was beaten up pretty well.

Penn State actually gained more passing yards than Iowa (247 to 227) on 22 completions of 42 throws. However, despite one 49-yard play to Brett Brackett, the average per pass worked out to only 5.9 yards. Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi proved to be the more accurate passer and his receivers the more sure-handed, as he completed 16 out of 22. Both quarterbacks had one interception and Stanzi had one touchdown pass, which was a ridiculous completion to Derrell Johnson-Koulianos standing all alone in the end zone. Any thoughts that the Penn State secondary had potential for greatness should have been quashed right then and there.

[Read more…]

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Filed Under: Penn State Football Tagged With: coaching issues, college football, Hawkeyes, Iowa, Nittany Lions, offensive ineptitude, Penn State, red zone failure

There Ain’t No “I” in Hawkeye

Posted on October 1, 2010 Written by The Nittany Turkey

Happy October, folks!

There ain’t no “I” in Hawkeye, just an eye. They’ve got a well rounded team out there in I-oh-Way, and they’ve been particularly troublesome for the Nittany Lions through the years. This week, #22 Penn State (3-1, 0-0 Big Ten) opens up its Big Ten season against #17 Iowa (3-1, 0-0 Big Ten) in Kinnick Stadium.

We’re finished with the so-called tests. In this Turkey’s opinion, the Nittany Lions haven’t passed those test games with flying colors. By the time the Big Ten season opens, we should know whether the boys have the talent, the desire, and the moxie to navigate the perilous straits of intra-conference competition, to be able to hang with the best of them. I think that from what we’ve seen thus far, this Turkey can conclude that this will not be a memorable Big Ten season. At the beginning of the season, I picked the Lions to finish regular season play 7-5. That means four losses in league play. I see no reason why I should deviate from that prediction now.

The pieces just haven’t come together.

The offensive line improved a little from the beginning of the season, but it took a big hit last week when RT Lou Eliades was lost for the season. Chima Okoli was moved over from the defense and will take Eliades’ place. Although he is reportedly doing well in practice, he and the rest of this line are going up against a very dominant Iowa defensive line.

The rushing game came together, apparently after some motivational speaking between head coach Joe Paterno and Evan Royster, who had a career day against Temple. However, this is not Temple, and the aforementioned defensive line will not be as kind to Royster as was Temple’s. In fact, Iowa ranks #3 nationally in rushing defense. Penn State ranks a dismal #61 in rushing offense. Royster has been held to 3.7 yards per carry by Iowa during the past two seasons.

Our freshman quarterback sensation, Rob Bolden, should be settling down a bit at this point, having already played in that tough road game in front of a hostile crowd at Alabama. However, a couple of our fabled receivers have not done very much this season. And, notably, with the loss of Andrew Szczerba, there has been but a single throw to a tight end this season. No doubt, our coaches are being cautious due to the youth and inexperience of his replacements, Garry Gilliam and Kevin Haplea, who are also needed for pass blocking against the fierce Iowa pass rush. I would expect a little more production out of the tight ends in this game, and I would also hope that Bolden can spread the ball around to take advantage of some mismatches as he spots them. Penn State’s passing offense ranks #72 nationally, and it will have to overcome Iowa’s strong pass efficiency defense, ranked #16.

Ricky Stanzi, the senior quarterback for Iowa, has developed into a serious threat this year. Last week, against Ball State, he completed 19 of 25 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns. He is taking care of the ball much better than in prior years’ campaigns, and his quarterback rating thus far is 179.41. The Hawkeyes’ passing offense is ranked #32 against Penn State’s #44 ranked pass efficiency defense.

The well rounded offense includes a rushing offense ranked #38 nationally. Penn State’s rushing defense is ranked #39. Iowa ran for a mere 29 yards against Arizona. Both teams are going to have to pass.

Iowa’s overall defense is currently ranked #1 in the FBS, allowing a stingy 227.5 total yards per game. Senior DE Adrian Clayborn is back and is well remember by Nittany Lions fans for his punt block last year, which he returned for a touchdown and the win. Broderick Binns, the other starting DE, is no slouch, either. The Hawkeyes have forced 14 turnovers in the past four games with PSU. This year, they’re tied for #17 in turnover margin (vs. Penn State’s #80). This will be a tough day for Bolden and for the offensive line. It is going to be difficult to neutralize both Clayborn and Binns, especially with a new RT.

“He’s about as good as anyone there is,” said Paterno about Clayborn.

Iowa’s only loss was a September 11 road game at Arizona, in which they were beaten 34-27, somewhat of an upset. The score is somewhat deceptive, because two of Arizona’s scores were on big plays.

Of course, Penn State lost to Alabama, which everybody expected.

The gameday weather will be clear and cold, with a high of 60 and a low of 35. As kickoff is 8:05 PM, you can expect temperatures to be in the low 40s around game time. They’re trying to create black and gold stripes around the stadium (like a schizophrenic white-out) by telling people how to dress based on which sections they sit in. Sounds like great fun. I always liked the Hawkeyes because they wear Steelers uniforms.

Hawkeye head coach Kirk Ferentz seems to have Paterno’s number. Since the 2000 season, he is 7-1 against the elder coach, including a uniquely Penn State – Iowa 6-4 game in 2004. Typically, Penn State has been favored in this rivalry, but not this year. Paterno is going to have to be less predictable than is his typical game on the road, which is characterized by the following quote:

Pardon my French, but [he] is so tight that if you stuck a lump of coal up his ass, in two weeks you’d have a diamond.

–Ferris Bueller

And that witticism brings us to the weekly feature you’ve all been waiting for, the Official, Infallible, Obnoxiously Inimitable Turkey Poop Prediction! But first, folks, I have to thank you readers for putting up with this Turkey’s insane ramblings. You really deserve the credit for keeping me going, even if you tell me that I’m completely full of shit. But I digress. Playing in their home stadium, the betting line currently favors the Hawkeyes by 7, with an over/under of 40. This suggests a potential final score of about 24-17. This Turkey doesn’t see that much offense coming from the Lions, whom I don’t believe will beat the spread. In spite of the past, with wonders like the 6-4 final score in 2004, the over/under looks about right, because Stanzi will provide some offense this year. So I’ll go with Iowa 27, Penn State 13.

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Filed Under: Penn State Football Tagged With: college football, Iowa, Penn State, Sports

Drawing a Blank

Posted on October 3, 2007 Written by The Nittany Turkey

Iowa HawkeyesFor a couple of days I’ve been thinking of just what in the hell I can write about the upcoming Iowa game. The title of this post says it all—the nondescript nature of this game has left me flapping in the breeze. (And the breeze is a noxious gaseous cloud.) I’ve written enough about A-Mo and our coaching suckage. Alas, Iowa sucks just about as badly. So, between these two Big Ten cellar dwellers, what can I write that would be worth reading? Not much.

One thing I definitely cannot do is say much about what The Alan Greenspan of Coaching said at his press conference Tuesday. Paterno’s non-responses were classically obfuscatory. He sneered at the press, essentially telling the reporters to go to hell without mouthing the actual words, as has been his press conference pattern increasingly over the past decade. Nevertheless, one thing is for sure. We will see no significant changes.

Stick to the facts, you say. OK, here are the sad facts. The Penn State Nittany Lions (3-2, 0-2 Big Ten) meet the Iowa Hawkeyes (2-3, 0-2 Big Ten) on Saturday at 3:30 PM at Beaver Stadium. The Hawkeyes bring a defensive unit ranked #9 in the Division Formerly Known as I-A (PSU’s defense is ranked 7th in the division). On the other side of the ball, neither team has any semblance of a functional offense, with Iowa and Penn State ranked 92 and 60, respectively, in total offense. Where Iowa excels is in taking care of the ball. They are presently the Big Ten leader in turnover margin. I guess if you have nothing but three-and-outs, you don’t have much of an opportunity to turn the ball over. In contrast to Iowa, this is an area in which the Nittany Lions suck big time, ranking 7th in the conference. Where Penn State excels is in punting the football, the one category in which the Nittany Lions actually lead the conference. Finally, although both teams are officially unranked, in College Football News‘ overall ranking of 119 teams in TDFKAI-A, Penn State is ranked #49 versus Iowa’s #59. Oh, boy—this is a must watch game!

Throw out the first three games for PSU and the defense really doesn’t hold up to that #7 ranking. Neither does the offense keep even its crappy, middle-of-the-pack #60 ranking, given that the Nittany Lions scored a meager 29 points in the past two games against Michigan and Illinois. Iowa hasn’t exactly been tearing the place up, having beaten only Northern Illinois and Syracuse, while losing close ones to Iowa State (they suck) and Wisconsin (they don’t), and being blown out by Indiana. Indiana!

Iowa was looked upon as a contender for the Big Ten title at the beginning of the year, particularly because they don’t have to play either Michigan or Ohio State this year. Well, any semblance of a contending team went out the window in the loss to Indiana. Now, they occupy the Big Ten cellar with Northwestern, Minnesota, and (gulp!) Penn State. And Iowa’s injuries keep mounting. Things are not looking good for the Hawkeyes.

The gamblers have installed Penn State as the early nine point favorites. Home field is usually good for three points in itself. The over/under is one of the lowest I’ve ever encountered: 38. (This is the expected number of points scored by both teams.) So, given those two numbers, Las Vegas is predicting a 24-14 outcome or thereabouts.

Frankly, I don’t know if either team can score a touchdown at this stage. That sucks, doesn’t it? You know, looking ahead in the schedule, the only remaining game we can count on winning is Temple. However, with no changes, our low-octane offense will continue to stink up the place. Our curmudgeonly old head coach will work hard to maintain the status quo of mediocrity.

So, that brings us to the Official Turkey Poop Prediction! Hmm, let’s see…no offense…no offense…No Offense! Remember this game? Of course you do. It was that great 2004 6-4 loss to Iowa. What are the prospects of a similarly boring game this year? Significantly high—it’s just that there’ll be a couple of minor changes. I don’t think two safeties in a game is a very common occurrence at any level of football so I don’t expect that we can replicate the “4” number. However, we know that both offenses suck. Iowa’s just takes care of the ball much better than PSU does. So it will be a low scoring game and Jeremy Boone will get lots of opportunities to win the so-called battle of field position. I was going to predict a 6-4 win for PSU, but I’m sitting here talking myself out of it. I’ll go with PSU 9, Iowa 6. So, please, give me a hard time about it if I’m wrong!

This should be an exciting one. So take plenty of valium before the game to calm yourself down. This Turkey intends to get pretty mellow while watching it. I can hardly wait!

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Filed Under: Penn State Football Tagged With: 0-0 tie, game of the century, Iowa, no offense, offensive suckage, Penn State

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Whodat Turkey?

The Nittany Turkey is a retired techno-geek who thinks he knows something about Penn State football and everything else in the world. If there's a topic, we have an opinion on it, and you know what "they" say about opinions! Most of what is posted here involves a heavy dose of hip-shooting conjecture, but unlike some other blogs, we don't represent it as fact. Read More…

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