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Abbreviated Michigan Preview of Sorts

Posted on October 16, 2008 Written by The Nittany Turkey

Yeah, like you’re going to see the same things written wherever you go, so I’m not going to write it here. Joe said it in the press conference Tuesday: Michigan is better than they were against Toledo and they played both Notre Dame and Wisconsin tough. So, don’t be looking for a walkover on Saturday. Mind you, I’ll be happy if that’s the way it plays out, but I want you all to be a little worried about this one. Moreover, I want the team to be a little worried about this one. Nobody better be looking ahead to Ohio State with the intent of mailing this one in.

I do think that the PSU offense can overwhelm Michigan’s defense, while Penn State’s defense can shut down Michigan’s erratic offense. I hope it’s a Wisconsin style blowout, but we won’t know that until four quarters are played on Saturday.

I don’t have my usual research tools with me here in Pennsylvania, so I won’t be going into great detail with who’s who on both sides of the ball. You can get that elsewhere.You’ll just get the usual bullshit here.

I’m going to enjoy Homecoming weekend and then maybe I’ll recap it for you. I’ll be in State College tomorrow. Dinner at Spatz tomorrow evening—hopefully, with a table next to the windows so we can watch the homecoming parade down College Avenue. Shacking up in the usual fleabag motel with my friends Joe & Judy. Crashin’ tailgates. The game on Saturday. The celebration on Saturday night—it has been promised that if the Nittany Lions win, we geezers might even stay up ’til 9:30.  It don’t git no better’n this.

So, we’ll skip directly to the Official Turkey Poop Prediction, and I won’t even digress before launching into its pseudo-scientific projection. Current spread is Penn State – 24½ with an over/under of 47. That suggests a final score of 36-11. This Turkey is thinking that the gamblers have this one pegged. Penn State 37, Michigan 10.

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Filed Under: Penn State Football Tagged With: college football, Go Blue, Nittany Lions, Penn State Football, Sports, University of Michigan, Wolverines

Nothing to Bitch About!

Posted on October 12, 2008 Written by The Nittany Turkey

Wow, boys and girls! What a great game to stop a cynical Turkey in his tracks! Other than the first drive, this normally curmudgeonly and foul fowl could find nothing to pick on the entire night—and that includes coaching—as the Nittany Lions thoroughly thrashed, if not trashed, the Wisconsin Badgers 48-7 on their home turf. This morning, we’re seeing a lot of sportswriters’ clichés to describe the Badgers’ denouement; however, none could hold a candle to that which was offered by Artificially Sweetened in a text message to me during the game: “I’m watching the Badger creamation [sic]…”—a very apt description from my neologistical protégé.

I mentioned the coaching in my introductory paragraph. (If you can have a paragraph, can you have a parascope? Is the science of writing inscribing paragraphs called paracology? Enquiring minds want to know, but I digress.) Coaching—the bane of Penn State’s road performance for more years than this Turkey wishes to remember—was superb. Wisconsin’s defensive game plan appeared to anticipate Paterno Sphincter Mode. They did what they could to shut down the run, and they were somewhat effective. Finally showing some confidence in his offense, old Joe countered by opening up the passing game. With as many weapons as this team has, the Badgers never knew what hit them. They were down 17-0 before they could even work up a good cheese fart. It was just total annihilation.

The home crowd was never a factor, quietly sulking for most of the game. At The Cave, home theater of the Nittany Turkey and the Mouse Who Ate Xanax, there were many conjectures about which of the featured Badgers and Badgerettes would or would not get laid last night. Most of the worried looking, morose dweebs were not going to get any. We envisioned them crying in their 3.2 beer all night.

While PSU’s potent offense led by Daryll Clark has been the story all season, there have been doubts about the defense. In this game, the defense performed well, forcing four turnovers and holding Wisconsin to only 14 first downs for the game.

You can read all the detailed stats and play-by-play elsewhere. Suffice to say that the Badgers scored their lone touchdown in the second quarter and never got their heads above water. They could have gone home at halftime and been ahead of the game. Anyhow, by now, you know all about the game, so let’s talk here.

I was wrong about the way I thought this game would progress. I predicted PSU would win 23-20. That was predicated on two notions this Turkey held in his birdbrain. First, I felt that Paterno would put the clamps of conservatism on this important road game, playing “not to lose” instead of playing to win. Second, I felt that the PSU defense was not up to the task of shutting down the Wisconsin offense.

On each of the past two occasions on which the Nittany Lions had traveled to Camp Randall, they put a total of three big points on the scoreboard. Last week, at Purdue, they were able to manage only 20 points against one of the worst defenses known to modern man. Given the typical Paterno game plan, who would have thought that Joe would suddenly develop confidence in his offense and turn them loose? I was cringing all week thinking that Joe was developing a game plan in which the punter was regarded as an offensive weapon. Joe surprised me rather pleasantly, and I’m sure he surprised Brett Bielema, too, only not very pleasantly on his end! So there you have it. A 36 year-old upstart outcoached by an old master who is going on 82.

I thought that the Penn State defense could shut down P. J. Hill, as they have shown they can do in the past. However, selling out to protect the run is not a good thing if the opponents have a passing game. I feared that Wisconsin, especially with Travis Beckum being healthy, would be able to exploit the sell-out. They couldn’t, and the Penn State secondary deserves a lot of credit for making it that way.

Even the kickoffs and kickoff coverage were masterfully executed. Kelly kicked several times into the end zone. His leg seems to be getting stronger as the season progresses. Good coverage kept Bucky hemmed in, cowering in his badger hole much of the day.

The officiating was pretty strange. Not that I thought they particularly implemented bias one way or the other, but some obvious instances of holding that were visible to customers in the cheap nosebleed seats were left unpenalized. Penn State was penalized only once for seven yards, while Wisconsin had eight penalties for 72 yards. So, I’m not bitching. Much.

Paterno has done some bobbing and weaving, to be sure. He sure as hell made us all believe that he would play his typical, constipated road game. Now that the cat is out of the bag, I wonder what is in store for us at the Horseshoe on October 25th! What a game that is setting up to be. But let us not get ahead of ourselves. Major nemesis Michigan looms next week.

The bloom is off the Michigan rose this year. Their latest ignominious defeat was at the hands of MAC power Toledo, 13-10. Michigan had heretofore never lost to a MAC team. The Wolverines are quickly becoming irrelevant, although they still could theoretically win the Big Ten title by winning out from here. However, that ain’t likely, as they have yet to play the three conference leaders, Penn State, Michigan State, and Ohio State, each 3-0 in the Big Ten.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin joins the laggards of the Big Ten at 0-3. A decent bowl game is already out of reach for the Badgers, who at the outset of the season were everyone’s choice to be second best in the conference.

While Penn State was burying Wisconsin, them ol’ #11 Gators was busy knocking the snot out of da #4 Bayou Bengals, #17 OK State handled #3 Mizzou, and #5 Texas whipped #1 Oklahoma, creating a shake-up in the Top Five and opening the door for the Nittany Lions to be sucked into the vacuum created by the free fall of Oklahoma, Missouri, and LSU from the unbeaten ranks. #2 Alabama had the week off. So, the polls came out this morning, and Penn State is #3.

OK, look, folks. The polls still don’t mean much at this juncture. Give it another month and they might. In the meanwhile, let’s not put any BCS speculation carts before any on-field performance horses, OK? (Don’t you love dorks who finish their sentences with “OK?” They’re usually receptionists in doctors’ offices. For example, “The doctor has several patients before you [even though you arrived on time] so it will be a little while, OK?” NO, GODDAMNIT! IT’S NOT OK! Usually, you think it but you don’t say it. You know your place. They know you know. They’ve got you by the balls. But I digress.) Anyhow, let’s not get into these crapola bar room discussions that center around whether an undefeated Big Ten team could go to the Still Somewhat Mythical National Championship (SSMNC) game if there were a once defeated Big Twelve or SEC team contending for that slot. ESPN has been beating this one to death for a couple of weeks now. We all know that the Big Twelve and SEC have conference championship games and that 13th game makes it damn difficult for any team in those conferences to get through a season undefeated. SOME of us believe that the competition is stronger in both of those conferences than in the Big Ten. (This Turkey happens to believe that, at least for now.) Anyhow, there is a lot of football to be played yet for PSU, so why waste our time talking about things that might not even be an issue, and if they do become so, there isn’t a damn thing we can do about it, anyway.

Like my digressions? I’m crazy, you know. I once had a girlfriend who uttered the very same line in a matter-of-fact fashion when I took her for a walk on the beach after dinner. “I’m crazy, you know,” she said. She was and still is. It has been five years since I’ve seen her, but once in a while we exchange e-mails. I got one from her last night during the game. It said, “I live in kind of [a] convent now. I am telling you that because I think it will give you a smile.” Get thee to a nunnery! Good old Ophelia. She’s bonkers and so am I. Perhaps I belong in a convent, too. But I digress.

Here’s the deal. I’m going up to Homecoming. I’ll leave on Wednesday afternoon and will be gone for about a week. I might or might not get around to writing a preview of the Michigan game, but I will give it the old college try. If you make it to the game, I’ll be sitting in the club seats, second row from the top, right behind the goal posts. Look for the red wattles and the large beak.

Penn State will go into that game the overwhelming favorites with probably a wider spread than at any time ever in the past against Michigan. Michigan sure looks dreadful at this point, don’t they?

I’m fading out here.

Good night.

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Filed Under: Penn State Football Tagged With: college football, Nittany Lions, non-Sphincter Mode, Penn State Football, Sports, west coast offense

One at a time!

Posted on October 1, 2008 Written by The Nittany Turkey

Purdue

We’re here today to talk about the forthcoming Purdue game. Gadzooks! [Non-scatological invective thrown in just to titillate my profanity sensitive readers.] Everybody seems to be putting this one in the win column before it is played. Not so fast, Lions and Lionettes! Penn State has to play them all, one at a time!

Penn State is 5-0 and it’s almost like Obamamania around here. People are so hopeful for something good to magically happen that they overlook the fundamentals. Ahhh, NCAA BCS football is such a mirror of life, isn’t it, hopeclingologically speaking, that is?

[Like my neologism there: hopeclingologically? Sometimes I wish English were more like German, so we could combine words into compact, cogent, octosyllabic masterpieces. But I digress etymologically… ]

Listen, if you’re tired of reading bullshit, bail out here, because there’s a lot more below. Well, you might want to skip directly to the Official Turkey Poop Projection before you get completely disgusted and leave! I’m having fun here. Are you?

Another concept from the quasi-political world of Alan Greenspan comes to mind here: irrational exuberance. Penn State has beaten no one of any importance in the so-called national championship picture. They played pretty good games against Oregon State and Illinois, their only real opponents, which I don’t want to minimize. However, unlike Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State, for example, PSU has not yet met any Top Ten opponents. So, please, until that happens and the Nittany Lions make a good showing, temper your expectations. This Turkey would love it if these guys make it all the way to the second week in January, but I think that it will be damn tough enough to win the Big Ten conference title, let alone move up to #1 or #2 in the national rankings.

With the onerous road schedule in October—and even our Homecoming game with Michigan—the Nittany Lions will most likely lose at least one game. PSU’s defense has been soft up the middle, which does not portend well for the coming tilts with Wisconsin and Ohio State. Couple that with the fact that both the Badgers and the Buckeyes are away games against ranked opponents, which has been an area of incompetence for the Lions (0-10 since beating Wisconsin on the road in 2002), and you have a couple of potential Waterloos looming. We all know that, but I wanted to mention it before the opiate effect of a 5-0 record and the perceived invincibility associated therewith sends so many endorphins to your brains that you lose sight of that tough road ahead.

Ohio State is particularly troublesome. The potent combination of Terrelle Pryor and Beanie Wells will be a very difficult task for the Penn State defense. We don’t know much about Pryor’s clutch passing ability yet, because he certainly didn’t have to pass much against Minnesota, but he has some experienced targets to throw to in Robiskie and Hartline, as if having him and two Wellses in the backfield weren’t enough. Hell, even Boeckmann, the Buckeyes’ current second-stringer, torched us last year—and that was with arguably a better Penn State defense. The Ohio State defense leads the conference—their pass defense is particularly tough—so it will be a tough game. I don’t care if Laurinaitis is overhyped and overrated. The Buckeye defense is solid, unless they’re playing over their heads against the likes of USC. I expect Pryor to steadily improve from what is a pretty damn respectable starting point between now and our game the last week of October in Columbus. For a freshman, he shows a lot of what Joe Paterno calls “poise.”

Ohio State goes to Camp Randall Stadium to square off with Wisconsin this weekend. That game should tell us a lot about both prime opponents. Who the hell do we, as Penn State fans, root for? We want both teams to be good when we beat them. (Under the irrational exuberance paradigm, of course we’re going to beat both of them!!!! [Sarcastic Italics noted.]) Well, how about if we are slightly more rational in our thinking and we believe Penn State can beat Wisconsin, but not Ohio State on the road? Then it would behoove us to want Wisconsin to beat OSU. But if Wisconsin beats OSU, than why can’t PSU? Oh, darn! Pshaw! It’s all too complicated. Let’s let them play and let the damn chips fall as they may. (Oh, wait. That puts the clamps on about 80% of the sports bar conversations.)

Can Paterno ever open up the sphincter and play aggressively on the road? This Turkey thinks not. The dismal road record against ranked opponents will not improve measurably unless and until his game philosophy changes. Running up the gut continually with a seven point lead in the third quarter while dropping back into a prevent defense on the other side of the ball does not seem to be a winning combination. Yet Joe’s stubborn conservatism continues. We can always hope, sayeth this Turkey, hopeclingologically.

I should mention that Michigan is not in the bag yet, either. I hear a lot of bluster going on out there, but the sad fact remains that Michigan owns Penn State in their series. On paper, this should be the best chance for the Nittany Lions since 2005, so let’s hope they can do it. What I don’t want to hear is trash talk about Michigan, about Rich Rodriguez, and about their decline as a program. The Wolverines are always dangerous, even with two losses. You saw what happened to Wisconsin, so don’t put this one in the W column until the scoreboard has PSU on top with the clock displaying 0:00 in the 4th.

Hey, look. I’m calling them as I see them. I am not a football genius, but I’m a helluva lot better looking than Charlie Weis. If you want pie-eyed optimism and rose-colored glasses, go read Phil’s Corner at BWI. He charges for his Pollyanna crap. Here, you can shovel all you want for free, without even a hint of an annoying ad! Love me or hate me—I don’t care. Whether you agree or disagree, whether you think I’m a sage or just an annoying old fart, your comments are always meaningful and welcome.

Enough Bullshit! On to Purdue…

And now, on to unranked Purdue (2-2, 0-0 Big Ten), whom the #6 Nittany Lions (5-0, 1-0 Big Ten) lead 9-3-1 overall and 4-2 on the road.

We are gathered here to lay to rest the rumor that Purdue has a defense. Ranking #107 in the BCS (formerly Division I-A), they have yielded 105 points in four games. That would appear a lot like 26.25 points per game against Northern Colorado, Oregon, Central Michigan, and Notre Dame. They are particularly ineffectual against the run, where the Boilermakers rank #99.

Thus, Royster, Green, and Co., the 8th ranked rushing offense in the nation, should have a field day in West Lafayette on Saturday. However, until he learns to hold onto the ball, Green is probably going to see little action in crucial game situations. As for passing, the Boilermakers will be trying to shut down Derrick Williams after his career day against Illinois, so look for a lot of passes to go to Norwood (if he plays) and Butler. Brackett, Powell, and Zug are there, too. Quarless, as well, has been used quite a bit lately, although it would be more comforting if he could become a more effective blocker. The Penn State offense, the almighty Spread HD, has just too many damn weapons for a defense keying on any one particular aspect of it to stand any chance of shutting it down completely. Only well rounded defenses need apply here.

On the offensive side of the ball, Purdue has some familiar names to contend with. They seem to have been around for the past 10 years or so. Senior quarterback Curtis Painter is back throwing 42 passes per game. His favored target, Greg Orton, is also a senior. This duo is well practiced and should give our good, but not great back seven some problems. Desmond Tardy, another senior, is third in receiving in the Big Ten, while Orton is second. The passing attack is complemented by the running of another senior, Kory Sheets, who is getting a lot more carries this year while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. However, Sheets suffered a shoulder separation against Notre Dame and, while supposedly available, might be held back for this game.

Here’s what this Turkey thinks. Last week, the Penn State defensive line showed a little too much respect for Illini quarterback Juice Williams’ running ability, but he wound up getting his yards anyway. This week, they have Painter, who is slippery but lacks Williams’ overall mobility. With our secondary being pretty run-of-the-mill (i.e., no Justin Kings or David Macklins in the bunch), the D-line needs to be putting lots of pressure on Painter. I hope not to see the “respect” that was evidenced last week.

Purdue is coming off a 38-21 loss to resurgent Notre Dame. In that game, Notre Dame was able to gain 476 total yards. Painter was 38-55 for 359 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, while Sheets was held to 87 yards on 13 carries. The Boilermakers turned the ball over once. So, there you have pretty much what the aggregate season stats tell you: Purdue has no defense, but can score on you.

This will be the last time Penn State plays a Joe Tiller coached Purdue Boilermakers squad, as Tiller is scheduled to retire after this season. Similarly, this could be the last time the Boilermakers face off against a Joe Paterno coached Nittany Lions team, as many of us hope that JoePa has the sense to retire after this year. Getting back to Tiller, this being his last year means that his team, particularly his talented seniors, will be wanting to give him a winning season. That’s an intangible in Purdue’s favor.

One more intangible is the great big target on Penn State’s proverbial pack with six inch high lettering saying “We’re Number Six.” Expect all lower ranked teams to be gunning for a win against big, bad Number Six.

Speaking of Joe Paterno, when asked about his knee at the press conference on Tuesday, he told a story about what they tell players: “There’s  a difference between being injured and being hurt. If you’re injured, you can’t play. If you’re just hurt, you better go out there and play.” Joe then said that his leg was “hurt.” He expects to be on the sideline, but doesn’t know if he can last the whole game there. This Turkey hopes that Joe doesn’t have to put up with a lot more pain.

The TurKeys to the game:

  • Offense: Do what you’ve been doing, but take care of the ball!
  • Defense: Apply pressure to the quarterback. Respect Purdue’s passing game.
  • Defense: Be tough up the middle and deny Sheets any running room.
  • Everybody: Don’t look past this game to next week in Wisconsin.

(Big deal! Anyone could have come up with those! But “keys to the game” is a cheap, handy vehicle I can use for summation, albeit one of the hackneyed sportswriter things I pick on. Of course, if I pick on you, it means that I like you. Isn’t that the way it was with fifth-grade girls?)

Regrettably, because I love to write and bloviating is so damned carthartic, that brings us to the Official Turkey Poop Prediction. But first let me say that last year’s PSU 26-19 victory over Purdue at Beaver Stadium was, in Simon Cowlesque terms, a complete mess. The Nittany Lions will have to do one helluva lot better on the road to beat the mediocre Boilermakers. The gamblers currently see Penn State as a 13-point favorite with an over/under of 58. Them damn stoopers thinks da Lions can score lotsa points this year. Doin’ da mat’, dis suggests dat dem bookies will break even if Penn State wins by a final score of 36-23. See, this Turkey believes that Penn State’s defense has its flaws and is thus inclined to believe that Tiller’s offense can score points on it. In my original pre-season projection, I had Penn State losing this one, its first Big Ten road game. I’ve changed my mind. I think the combination of the Spread HD and Purdue’s yielding defense, coupled with the Purdue offense against not-so-great PSU D, will result in a squeaker (not!): Penn State 45, Purdue 21.

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Filed Under: Penn State Football Tagged With: college football, Joe Paterno, Joe Tiller, Nittany Lions, Penn State Football, PSU, Purdue Boilermakers, Sports

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The Nittany Turkey is a retired techno-geek who thinks he knows something about Penn State football and everything else in the world. If there's a topic, we have an opinion on it, and you know what "they" say about opinions! Most of what is posted here involves a heavy dose of hip-shooting conjecture, but unlike some other blogs, we don't represent it as fact. Read More…

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