The Nittany Turkey

Primarily about Penn State football, this is a tale told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

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Pur Doo-doo

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I like my slogan better than the Citizen’s bank button, which this year reads: “Undo Purdue.” This is Homecoming Week at Penn State, time for snappier slogans like we had in politically incorrect days of yore, for example, “Shitt on Pitt.” Some of these damn things they come up with nowadays are so damn cutesie that they’re nearly inscrutable.

The featured event of this year’s Homecoming Weekend, aside from crowning the king and queen, is the annual Homecoming game. The Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1, 2-0 Big Ten) will host the Purdue Boilermakers (3-2, 1-0 Big Ten) at Beaver Stadium, which we hope is sold out this week. (If we can’t sell out the Homecoming game, what the hell can we sell out? Is the STEP program really all it’s cracked up to be? See here, here and here.) Purdue is coming off a serious cleaning of the Minnesota Golden Gophers’ clocks, 45-17. However, before that, the Boilermakers lost to Notre Dame, 38-10. An early season loss to C-USA Rice, 24-22, seals the deal for this Turkey. The boys from West Lafayette have a porous defense. (Critics of mine will point out that Purdue shut out Southeast Missouri State 59-0, but get serious!)

So, the Boilers (as some call them) will theoretically have to generate some prolific offense to surmount their defensive deficit. I say “theoretically” because it is doubtful that will happen. First, since the Nittany Lions’ offensive performance during the first half of the season, particularly in the red zone, has been abysmal, Purdue will not need to generate a huge number of points to eclipse what portends to be a puny point output by Penn State. However, unfortunately for the Cellar Dwelling Steam Generators, the Penn State defense is stiff and erect even with some significant injuries, ranking fourth nationally behind Michigan State, UCF, and Alabama (strange bedfellows, to be sure) and ahead of LSU, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Don’t expect to see a lot of scoring in this game.

Purdue ranks #20 in rushing offense, though, which makes them seem a serious threat to disrupt Penn State’s conservative ball control plan. They have a three-headed running back, which consists of a Bolden and two Akeems, who along with several others, are averaging 215 yards per game. Of course, all is not what it appears — the 393 net yards rushing in the Southeast Missouri game didn’t hurt their average. By contrast, Notre Dame allowed only 84 yards, while hapless Minnesota lay down on defense, letting the Boilermakers rebound with a 217 yard game.

Two-headed quarterbacks will reflect indecision on both sides of the field. Purdue’s tandem includes one of the best names we’ve encountered thus far: Caleb TerBush, a junior. The other guy is senior Robert Marve. Together, they have not exactly stunk up the place, but close. The Purdue passing offense ranks #93 nationally, with an average of 197 yards per game. They’re pretty consistent, regardless of whose defense they’re facing as the standard deviation is only 30.15. Against the #4 pass efficiency defense in the whole United States of friggin’ America, I would expect them to wind up with something like 168.36 yards.

That defense is bolstered by the return of D’Anton Lynn, who has been suffering the aftereffects of a concussion. They should be pretty pretty pretty solid. The Penn State rushing defense has been allowing fewer than 100 yards per game and ranks 17th nationally. Accordingly, don’t expect to see the triple-header ringing up big numbers.

On offense, well, you know all about the Nittany Lions’ scoring woes — they rank 93rd nationally in scoring offense, averaging 21.5 ppg. (I love how sports writers spew crap like “Penn State has quietly crept to a 5-1 record…” Yeah, right. The only well rounded opponent they’ve seen is Alabama.) The passing offense, ranked 82nd, takes a big hit this week as top receiver Derek Moye sits out with a broken foot that he suffered in a fall down his apartment steps this past Tuesday. Moye’s contribution to the passing offense cannot be understated. Of the 1273 yards gained passing, Moye accounts for 485, and he has three of the six passing touchdowns. It will be up to Justin Brown, Devon Smith, and Shawney Kersey to pick up the slack. This Turkey suspects that the offense will be pretty well grounded this week.

Silas Redd is up to the task. Expect another decent performance from him this week. Brandon Beachum will be back as Redd’s backup, and Curtis Dukes has already proven himself worthy there. If it weren’t for a still shaky offensive line, I’d say that Penn State could win this one on the ground. However, the rushing game ranks only #53 nationally, about on par with Purdue’s defense. This is one big fat statistical misrepresentation if ever there was one! While Purdue’s 59th ranked rushing defense averages 143 yards per game, the Boilermakers played only one opponent with a half-assed decent running game, Notre Dame, who burned that defense for 287 yards. So, don’t give me #59, already. They suck. Larry Cottrell could run for 100 yards against them with the McCabe Sisters blocking for him.

Unfortunately, Penn State has long run a conservative, plodding game plan that lets lesser opponents hang around for most of the game with a chance to win. I don’t expect much different this game. A lot of the explosiveness potential has been drained with the loss of Moye. Once again, we’re in for a thriller when no one wants to be thrilled.

It’s another noon start, folks, and you know what that means. Yeah, the offense will not wake up until late in the first half. It has rained for several days, which will dampen enthusiasm as well as the playing field. A good sign, though, is a robust Paternoville, in spite of the rain. So, while this Turkey hopes for a Homecoming blowout, all signs are that this will be a repeat of the past two weeks’ slumberfests.

What we’re going to do right here is to segue directly to the Official Turkey Poop Prediction, which is always predicated on poop. Penn State is a 12 point favorite with a 41.5 over/under. I’ve already told you that I expect a low scoring game, so take the under. Will the ever cynical Turkey predict that Penn State will cover the spread? In a Two Heads Are Better Than One special, where indecision trumps stability, your Thanksgiving bird feels that the Nittany Lions will once again fail to cover. Anthony Fera better avoid that stairway in Derek Moye’s apartment, because he’ll be a key figure. Don’t expect to see many, if any, passing touchdowns. Bolden can’t hit anybody, and absent a huge target like Moye, whether McGloin can is a crap shoot. Meanwhile, Caleb TerBush still has the best name of any opposing player thus far. I’m stalling. I know. My crystal ball is unclouding … here we go … Penn State 16, Purdue 10.

Semi-Strong Showing Beats Nemesis

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On a perfect fall day in University Park, the Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1, 2-0 B1G) defeated the Iowa Hawkeyes (3-2, 0-1) 13-3 before a non-sellout Beaver Stadium crowd of 103,497. Blame the STEP program for the empty seats, methinks.

Although the Hawkeyes have long been a problem for the Lions, I’ve always liked and respected them. First of all, they wear Steelers’ uniforms. Of equal importance, they have a great head coach, Kirk Ferentz.

Penn State’s defense dominated the game, which was destined to be a low scoring field goal contest despite what Phil Grosz might have predicted. This Turkey had it right — take the damn “under”. (The O/U was 45.5 — a no-brainer for this pair of teams). Alas, the Turkey also thought the score would end up closer than it did, not covering the 4.5 point spread. Figuring that the margin would be a single field goal, I was looking good until McGloin hit Haplea for a TD halfway through the final stanza.

Stanza? Sportswriter Thesaurus stuff. The word reminds me that the Hawkeyes sure looked like they could have used their multi-year starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi. His replacement, junior James Vandenburg was 17-34 for only 169 yards and two interceptions.

McGloin's Irish Mouthpiece
McGloin's Irish Mouthpiece

The PSU quarterback tandem roughly equaled the Iowa passing yardage on a 15-26 effort, which included the aforementioned touchdown pass by McGloin, as well as an embarrassing red zone interception, also by the ruddy lad with the Irish flag mouth piece. McGloin has the better day and took more snaps than Bolden, who is beginning to look to this Turkey as if he will not be “ready” this season. Bolden cannot seem to hit receivers accurately, even though he has an NFL caliber arm. (So did Morelli, and you see what that got him.) He seems to lack poise in the pocket, like he’s nervous or uncomfortable there. McGloin wasn’t perfect, as I mentioned, and he might not have the rifle of an arm Bolden has, but his stats were promising: 12-19 for 133 yards with one TD and one INT. Bolden was 3-7 for 31 yards.

Interestingly enough, former Gator coach Urban Meyer, doing the color commentary for ESPN/ABC insisted that McGloin would be his man if he were coaching. He’s the Turkey’s man, too. I’m no Urban Meyer, and I don’t play one on TV, but I think at this point any football idiot who read Football for Dummies by Rich Rodriguez would make the same assessment. Throughout the weekend, rumors swirled on message boards that the PSU administration had been involved in talks with Meyer about the head coaching job. One of the ostensible reasons, other than Meyer’s record, is that one of his possible destinations is Ohio State, being from Ohio, and we sure as hell wouldn’t want him coaching against Penn State. A pre-emptive strike. But hey, wouldn’t that require Joe to step down first? When’s that going to happen? I thought so. Joe will leave when he’s ready. Meyer has attempted to quash the rumor. As of the time I’m writing this, the kebash has been applied to that whole thang, with PSU Athletic Director Tim Curley issuing a waffled statement semi-denying that anything of the sort did or will happen, maybe, possibly.

Perhaps.

McGloin Hands the Rock to Redd
McGloin Hands the Rock to Redd

It was back to fundamentals for the Nittany Lion offense. Bo and Woody would have been congratulating Paterno on his “three yards and a cloud of dust” wisdom. Ball control football, with a very good runner like Silas Redd, keeps the defense fresh, and it showed in this game. The Lions held the ball for almost 36 minutes overall. Redd has a great day, with 142 yards on 28 carries. His backup, Curtis Dukes, added 60 yards on nine carries. Overall, the Lions were able to ring up 231 yards on the ground. Nice!

Against Penn State’s staunch defense, the Hawkeyes could manage only 253 total yards. Their primo runner, sophomore Marcus Coker, was held to 74 yards and Vandenberg added 10 yards to total 84 skimpy yards for the ‘Eyes.

An encouraging sign for the remainder of the season is that Anthony Fera was 2/2 on field goal tries, although the long one was 20 yards. That statistic, my friends, is disturbing. Once again the Lions show that they cannot execute inside the opponent’s 30 yard-line. Although I can give Iowa’s somewhat inexperienced defense credit for stiffening up, this has been a perennial problem for these boys. It sucks, too. But you knew that. In my cynical prediction (18-15 PSU), I anticipated six field goals by PSU, simply because they don’t seem to be able to cash in for six once in the opponent’s red zone, no matter who the opponent is. To emphasize this shortcoming, not to make you sick, I will recap the drives that reached the Hawkeyes’ 30:

  1. PSU drives to the 2. (FG)
  2. PSU drives to the 3. (FG)
  3. PSU drives to the 6. (INT)
  4. PSU drives to the 2. (TD)

So, there you go. Four trips inside the six — the six, damnit! — and only 13 points to show for it. Something is wrong there.

I have to congratulate the offensive line on its newfound ability to open up holes for Silas Redd, but they’ve still got a long way to go. The red zone issues are partly on their backs.

A win is a win, though, and overall, the boys deserve credit for maintaining their enthusiasm throughout the game, beating a long-time nemesis. Expect their winning ways to continue next week, as the hapless Boilermakers of Purdue invade the Beave for a noon Homecoming game.

I’ll be back later in the week with a preview and prediction for the Purdue game.

I Want to See Something

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The Nittany Lions (4-1, 1-0 B1G) host the Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1, 0-0) at Beaver Stadium today, and this Turkey wants to see what this Penn State team is made of. Yeah, there have been “tests” and I’d say our boys have flunked them. This is yet another test against a nemesis which has beaten PSU eight of the past ten times they’ve met. It doesn’t seem to make a difference whether the games are at home or away. Iowa has Penn State’s number.

The Hawkeyes are coming off a 45-17 win over Louisiana-Monroe — that was two weeks ago, as last week was a bye. The only marquis opponent they’ve faced thus far has been Pittsburgh, who they beat in a 31-27 shootout.

This year, the Hawkeyes have struggled a bit trying to find an offense, having lost their guiding light and starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi to graduation. His replacement,  junior James Vandenberg, has steadily improved. Against Pitt, he was 31-48 for 399 yards, 3 TDs and an INT. ??? ????? ?? ??? ??????? Sophomore running back Marcus Coker has been erratic. Against Pitt, he ran the ball 23 times for 86 yards with a long run of 14 yards. Expect to see the ‘eyes come out throwing. Receivers Keenan Davis and Marvin McNutt are competent.

Their defense has been suspect, too, as they yielded 44 points to perennial Big 12 patsy Iowa State in an overtime loss and 27 points to Pitt. They rank #73 in overall defense. With just two sacks and five tackles for loss all season, Penn State could find some offense against this group. In pass efficiency defense, they rank #87. ??? ???? ?? ?????? I’m thinking that if McGloin, the more accurate passer, can pick apart the secondary to set up the run, PSU will put some damn points on the board, for a change.

Where Iowa has shone most consistently through the years Penn State has been in the Big Ten is in its coaching. Kirk Ferentz has been brilliant in winning consistently against the Lions. ??????? Paterno is his bitch.

Offense has been Penn State’s big problem thus far. Ineptitude is rampant at the skill positions. Penalties, turnovers, and the quarterback tag team have conspired to daunt many scoring chances. The Nittany Lions’ usual problems inside the opponent’s 30 yard line are still there, only worse. I’d say that the offense could get a slug of confidence against the Iowa defense, but I thought that would happen in the Indiana game, too. It didn’t. If they keep on screwing up, any Big Ten defense will be sufficient to shut cheapest generic soma them down. Penn State’s scoring offense ranks #93 nationally, prompting this Turkey to give them the IS (it sucks) rating.

Meanwhile, Penn State’s defense numbers look great. Two caveats there: 1) Alabama played its vanilla offense against PSU, not wanting to show its full range of tricks to the SEC, and 2) Mike Mauti’s absence means a helluva lot. Nevertheless, they rank #7 in scoring defense and #5 in total defense. Against the run, they are #24. Perhaps Coker will get the ball more often for Iowa.

What I would like to see is McGloin getting most of the snaps. It would be great if he could start and there could be some continuity during the damn game, for the other players’ sake and to establish some rhythm. Passing success will open up the field for the running game, which should be up to the task, with Silas Redd being joined by the entrepreneurial Stephfon Green, who, according to Joe Paterno, is back. Receivers will have to catch balls that are thrown reasonably well, and the offensive line will have to improve its performance, but this game is winnable if the mistakes abate. I want to see some enthusiasm, some motivation on the part of the players. It doesn’t make me happy to see guys not even charged up in the first set of downs. The fire is lacking in all but a few players. Winning attitudes win games.

This game will lack some of the demotivating features we have come to know and love. It is a home game, and a 3:30 start. (Thank you ABC/ESPN, for thinking at the beginning of the season that this would be a consequential game.) The weather is perfect, mostly sunny with a high of 75°. Winds will be calm. No excuses!

I’m about to fall asleep, so it better damn well be time for the Official Turkey Poop Forecast for today’s game. First, let me thank you for your patience — I know how late I have been in getting this published. Well, the gambling line favors Penn State by 4.5 and the over/under is 45.5. My inclination, due to the poor offense on both sides coupled with Penn State’s credible defense, would be to take the under. As for the rest of the prediction, I’m bein’ a homey this week (I said homey not homo), but thinking that the game will be decided by a field goal, and Penn State will once again fail to cover the spread. Let’s call it Penn State 18, Iowa 15.