Archives for October 2023

Penn State vs. Maryland

The Maryland Terrapins are one of the pseudo-rivalry opponents chosen for Penn State by former Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany, so this is a cross-border rivalry game. Yeah, right! Back when Penn State was an Eastern Independent, before joining the Big Ten in 1993, the Nittany Lions would regularly square off with the Terps. Our current coaching staff also has some obvious tie-ins there, so we might just consider them regular opponents or something, but not a damn rivalry. The two teams have been playing each other since 1917 and Penn State has won 42 out of 46 games. This dominance suggests that it’s not a rivalry, just an annual beat-down.

No matter how hard its shell might be, a lion can destroy a turtle with one big chomp.

Beating the Terps

At this season’s outset, some wonks gave Maryland their best chance in years to beat the Lions; however, since then, Maryland has self-destructed in its usual fashion. The Terps have descended to a 5-3 overall and 2-3 Big Ten record. After a 5-0 start, they lost three straight, all conference games: tOSU, Illinois, and Northwestern. Losing against some of the worst teams in the league does not portend well for the Turtles.

Maryland has a minuscule chance if they can take care of the ball, which has been one of the big causative factors in the three Big Ten losses. (ESPN’s matchup predictor gives them a 16.9% chance).

Defensively, the Terps allow 109 yards rushing and 231 yards passing per game, good for #5 and #12, respectively, and #8 in total defense. If Penn State cannot get its running attack going, Drew Allar will need to step up, as will his receivers.

Offensively, Maryland, featuring big-name quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, has put up some big numbers. They rank second in passing offense in the Big Ten, behind only Ohio State. I believe that Taulia can put up some big numbers against State. However, the Terps rank eighth in rushing yards, much worse than the Nittany Lions, who rank #3, even with their anemic running game.

Can Penn State’s vaunted defense contain Taulia and his men? Obviously, the pass defense broke down against Marvin Harrison, Jr. and they allowed 269 yards passing last week to Indiana. Otherwise, they’ve been sound enough to be tied with tOSU for #3 in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions rank first in rushing defense, allowing just 74 yards per game. We saw some breakdowns in the past two games, so I hope we can rely on those issues being resolved to guarantee a win in this one.

A Win is Essential

Penn State’s offensive woes continue. They’re third in rushing in the Big Ten, behind Nebraska and Rutgers, while the passing offense is fifth The offensive line is the root of many of the problems, as usual. Run blocking is abysmal and pass protection has not been great. Many blame quarterback Drew Allar and his mediocre receiving corps. Others question why Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are not running effectively. The blame, in this Turkey’s opinion, is misplaced. We are back to Five Traffic Cones as the central failure point of the offense.

While a loss here wouldn’t end the season, it would further demoralize what already looked like a bunch of hang-dog, half-assed competitors during the Indiana game. We sure as hell do not need that going into the game with Michigan, where we must fire on all cylinders offensively, defensively, and on special teams to avoid complete embarrassment at the behest of the Wolverines on our home turf a week from Saturday. The Nittany Lions need to show up and be ready to play. Fortunately for them, kickoff is nominally at 3:30 PM.

‘Explosive’ Plays

I would like to see what a literally explosive play looks like. I’m sick and tired of hearing about explosive plays. More vogue coach/sportswriter bullshit. These guys cannot be original. Show me a play where the ball explodes and I’ll give you an explosive play, already.

With that rant behind us, in the Indiana game we saw the first thusly described play since the season opener. We have not seen many because 1) the offensive line sucks, and 2) the receivers are mediocre, and maybe 3) Allar has been inconsistent. That we needed a 57-yard desperation pass play from Allar to Lambert-Smith for a touchdown to beat Indiana with 1:46 left is telling.

Penn State’s offense seems to be in a conservative box, understanding the limitations of its personnel. To this old Turkey, this is reminiscent of the old St. Joe “sphincter mode” of days of yore, but it is a different situation. Now, they cannot run and they cannot throw deep, so they hope to win games by dinking and dunking.

Problem is, that puts them behind the eight ball on third downs. Ask any Steeler fan what that is like. Penn State is in the middle of the pack with respect to third-down conversions. Furthermore, playing conservatively from the start tends to put them in a position of playing from behind.

I want to see them jump out to early leads and build on them, hence my frustration with this offense.

Da Wedda

Looks to me like a typical fall day in partly cloudy College Park, with a high of 56. Advantage: no one.

Da Bottom Line

The four of you still reading my drivel know that is now time for The Official Turkey Poop Prediction, a regular pseudo-feature of the column. I describe it as awfal offal eminating from this foul old fowl’s cloaca, and worth just as much on the manure market. And that ain’t bat guano!

Our friendly bookies have established Penn State as 10-point favorites, with an over/under of 51. So, that works out to a current break-even score of 36-25. Break-even is, of course, mythical. The bookies always win. That’s a nice position to be in, don’t you think? Too bad we cannot say the same for our Nittany Lions. They needed the last-minute detonated play to score 27 and beat Indiana, perhaps the worst team in the Big Ten by the skin of their teeth. They allowed more points than they gave up to anyone all year. At home, yet! I am going with Penn State 27, Maryland 20, and I am taking the under.

So, I’ll be back after the game with my usual bullshit. Why do people start sentences with “so”? By the way, we’re at the point in the season where rankings start to matter, but we will need to wait until 7 PM Eastern time to discover how the CFP sees things. I predict that Penn State will be #10, but surprises can happen. Happy Halloween! UPDATE! The CFP sees Penn State as #11, which is getting closer to reality, but do you really think they could beat #14 LSU?

Penn State 33, Indiana 24

An uncharacteristic deep throw late in the game saved y’all’s ass there at Penn State. With 1:46 left in the game, Drew Allar hit Keandre Lambert-Smith for a 57-yard touchdown pass to break a 24-24 tie.

Sanguinarians are scratching their seborrhea, wondering how this travesty of a game that should have been a walkover could even happen. The spread, after all, was 32. WTF??? LMAO.

The Hoosiers had played well up to the end, confuddling a seemingly out of sorts Penn State defense. Maybe they were pining over Chop Robinson’s absence, but they surrendered more points than they have given up to anybody else all season, making Indiana’s offense look competent. Freshman QB Brendan Sorsby certainly looked competent hitting 13-19 for 269 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.

No way did Franklin cover the damn spread this week. He would have needed another three touchdowns to even get close. However, in other gambling propositions, thanks to the Hoosiers’ newfound competence, the game blew through the over/under of 46 big time.

Meanwhile, Northwestern was busy beating Maryland 33-27. The Wildcats capitalized on two fumbles and an interception. So, the Turtles will be loaded for bear next week at home in College Park. The Nittany Lions better come to play, and it would behoove them to get Chop Robinson back to harass Taulia Tagavailoa.

Otherwise, the only thing worthy of note was Drew Allar giving up his first interception as a semi-pro, hired college ath-a-lete. He finished 20-31 for a measly 210 yards with three touchdowns and the notable interception. He stuck with safe throws most of the game but did go deep a few times, including the game winner.

The ending of today’s game was not supposed to be exciting, but it was. Penn State sure as hell didn’t look like an AP Top Ten team, but you know what I think of these early rankings. Next week, it should be a barn-burner with the Terps.

I’ll be back between my MRI and my CT scan next week with my thoughts on the big Maryland game.

Indiana (2-5) vs Penn State (6-1)

I’m over the loss at the Horseshoe. As I said in the previous post, we all expected it, so let us accept it and move on. This Penn State offense has too many weaknesses to compete against the big boys, so let’s tackle someone we can surely handle. That brings us to the dregs of the Big Ten East: Indiana, who at 0-4 in conference play are tied with hapless Moo U in the bargain basement.

Indiana, ranked #116 in total offense, gave up any hope of an offense when Michael Penix, Jr. flew the coop. My, oh my, what is head coach Tom Allen to do? Chances are, Tom won’t have a “next season” to figure it out. Instead of Penix, who is having an All-Pac-12 season at Washington, Tom’s got a couple of freshman quarterbacks. Brendan Sorsby from Denton, Texas is currently the starter, with a QBR of 50.2.

Penn State’s offense is bad, but the Hoosiers are worse. For example, with respect to third down conversions, the Nittany Lions rank #55, while IU is down there at #86. In total offense, Penn State is at #60 and the Hoosiers — well, I already told you — #116.

Defensively, IU ranks #58, which is the pits. Sooooo, this might be a chance for the Nittany Lions to unleash some creativity and take some chances. It would be a confidence boost before taking on the more formidable than previously thought Terrapins next weekend. Of course, it could backfire, too. If our crappy offensive line remains weak up the middle and doesn’t get any push against the dregs of the Big Ten, Drew Allar might never regain any confidence. Still, I would like to see him take some deep shots, if his half-assed receiver corps is up to the task. Drew needs to be able to hit his short throws, too, which the collapsing pocket doesn’t help, as the element of panic enters the picture.

And, no need for dumbass plays like going for it on fourth-and-four from your own 45 with plenty of time left or stupid Lambert-Smith flea-flicker end around passing plays that haven’t worked all season. Just play football and take some chances, but don’t try stupid shit. Let’s get the fundamentals under control first.

Nativeamericaniana lost to tOSU, Maryland, Michigan, and Rutgers, while beating Indiana State, and Akron. They also lost to Louisville at a neutral site. They are nothing but beatable, so ’nuff said. With a 98 percent chance of winning this game, the Nittany Lions should relax and play football. AND NO STUPID PENALTIES!

Da Wedda

Looks like a crappy fall day at Beaver Stadium, with the high around 50 and rain.

Da Bottom Line

We’ll get right down to the Official Turkey Poop Prognostication, because I’m tired of writing about this dog. Current line is PSU-32 with an over/under of 46. That suggests a 39-7 win for the good guys. I don’t see Firstpeopleiana scoring a touchdown, so Ima go with the big bounceback frustration reliever: Penn State 45, Tribeiana 3. Make that statement whilst you can! Take the over.

(Yeah, it’s a frustration reliever, but will the regained confidence serve to falsely assure them that they have an offense? I hope some serious adjustments are made, but given the limited talent available, that’s perhaps a futile hope.)

I’ll be back after the game with more enlightening comments, or lack of same.