Quarter-final CFP: Boise State vs. Penn State
Sorry I took so long to write this. I have been ill for a few days, resulting in my lack of motivation. However, I don’t intend to spare you my bullshit about this game because it’s, like, important. Frankly, I think the bowl games and the CFP are royally screwed this year, but you knew that. Opt-outs, transfer portal, the almighty NFL Draft, and greed have perverted the whole end of year thing into a charade.
So, what have we here? Boise State beat everybody on their schedule this year except Oregon, who they battled to a 37-34 loss. Their major weapon is running back Ashton Jeanty, whose rushing output was 2,497 yards on 344 carries, a whopping average of 7.3 yards per carry. Against Oregon, he rang up 192 yards. He had six games over 200 yards. His lowest totals are 127 yards against Portland State and 128 against UNLV. He’s scored 29 touchdowns.
So, the big question: Can Penn State stop Ashton Jeanty. They’re going to try like hell, but Carnac is visualizing lots of missed tackles as Jeanty makes his way into the Penn State secondary multiple times. So, the collateral question is whether Penn State can provide enough offense to surmount the Boise State rushing attack. Quarterback Maddux Madsen produced numbers like Drew Allar’s, but he is only 5’10” tall.
For some odd reason, Penn State is favored by 11.5. This screams “overlay!”. Why so big a spread? I have a funny feeling about this one. To get through this round, the Nittany Lions will need to exploit Boise State’s pass defense. Drew Allar had an off day against SMU, so he better have his act together for this one. Otherwise, one and done.
Da Wedda
Doesn’t really matter, as it is the Fiesta Bowl, which is indoors with the field being a drawer so it can get some sun to grow the grass. The roof is retractable, but for the record, the weather will in the 60s and partly sunny.
Da Bottom Line
So, Penn State will spot Boise State the first 10 points. Tradition! We’re a second-half team. All that bullshit! To go 1-0 this week, the Nittany Lions better not be playing out of a deep hole. I’m going to be uncharacteristically optimistic here. I think Drew Allar will be up to the task this week (he better) and the Lions will prevail. Jeanty will run for over 125 yards and will score three touchdowns. However, Penn State will prevail, 31-27. I’m taking the over.
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Big Al says
Hope you’re feeling better. Your score prediction would have been perfect if Boise had committed one ;less penalty and not missed two chip shot field goals.
On the other hand, Kotelniicki’s shitty play calling prevented Penn State from scoring 50 points,..
The Nittany Turkey says
Thanks, Al. I hope I start feeling better, too. UTIs are tough on old farts like me.
I was frustrated by the strange play calls. Not like Boise State had any solutions for Allen and Singleton. The first quarter gave us that ray of hope, but then we descended into WTF-ball. I know they cannot run on every play, but when it’s working, go to it, and if it isn’t, change the plan.
I was amazed by the defense flying to the ball especially when Jeanty was carrying. I figured that he would gain enough to steal Dickerson’s record, especially when Carter departed with the injured arm. I don’t think we had seen that level of commitment by the defense in earlier games.
A win is a win, We’ll need to wait to know our next opponent, due to the terrorist coward who murdered 13 innocent people in New Orleans.
Now, Ohio State is looking like the odds-on favorite to win the whole shebang.
Happy New Year to you and yours!
—TNT
P.S.
Sorry I didn’t feel up to writing my usual recap and observations.
Big Al says
Well, there isn’t a whole lot to recap. Unlike Ryan Day and Ohio State, Franklin’s teams nearly always beat teams that have less talent in spite some questionable decision making during games,.
My guess is that after reviewing Boise’s game tapes, Kotelnicki decided that they were too hard to run on. but that they blitzed too much and their secondary could be burned by “explosive plays.” He believed that State could stop their blitz and that our receivers would get open against their secondary,.
However, the game time reality was that Boise’s run defense wasn’t that good and that Penn State’s receivers (with the exception of the 2nd touchdown) couldn’t get open and State couldn’t stop their blitz. Out of pride and an obsession with generating “explosive” plays, he stubbornly stuck with his pre-determined strategy instead of taking advantage of what Boise was giving him. It was almost the reverse image of Ryan Day’s stupid plan to physically dominate Michigan instead of spreading them out and forcing them to defend the entire field.
O$U has the best overall talent and should win the championship. But Day’s a worse game day coach than Franklin and Howard makes a lot of mistakes in pressure situations. I won’t be surprised if Georgia wins. They’re not the best team talent wise, but they know how to win big games and none of the other remaining teams do
The Nittany Turkey says
Before the game, wonks were talking about Penn State exploiting the Broncos’ pass defense. So, when I saw what went on in the first quarter, I was thinking that with that purported pass defense weakness and the demonstrated inability to stop the run, PSU would have an offensive field day, scoring at least 28 in the first half.
That Boise State pass defense weakness did not evidence itself, but our offensive brain trust continued to ignore that fact. That worked for two Tyler Warren TDs and one for Evans, but as for moving the ball down the field, six punts in the second and third quarter tells the disgusting tale.
It will be interesting to see how Georgia does against Notre Dame tonight with Beck out of action. I suppose that notable absence, plus the usual emotional bias, is why bettors are favoring the Irish by one point tonight. Notre Dame managed to lose to Northern Illinois, but otherwise, did not play many competent teams. They beat Louisville, but it was close. Georgia has a much stronger resume despite losing to Bama and Ole Miss. The big question mark is whether Stockton can continue to play like he did in the win over Texas.
—TNT