The Nittany Turkey

Primarily about Penn State football, this is a tale told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

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Northwest Passage

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Quaecumque sunt veraThe mighty (awful) Northwestern Wildcats (1-2, 0-0 Big Ten) bring their sorry act to Beaver Stadium to face the Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0, 1-0) at high noon on Saturday. Penn State is riding high on the virtue of a brilliant 48-7 win over UMass in which they actually showed some semblance of a balanced offense, while the lesser cats are pumped up over beating primo Missouri Valley Conference (Division I-AA) rival Western Illinois, 24-7, for their only win of the young season, snapping a six-game losing streak.

K. John, our intrepid predictor and commentator will be in attendance. He has already checked in, bitching about the inflated prices in State College during football weekends. He dropped off a prediction before he left Dodge, that being PSU 45, NWU 15.

The Wildcats’ losses this season were to Cal (31-24) and Northern Illinois (23-15). Meanwhile, Penn State temporarily leads the Big Ten, as they are the only school with a conference win.

You know, Northwestern used to play Penn State tough, no matter how crappy they looked on paper. There were some epic battles in the past. However, recently, it hasn’t been close. The last outing was 2012, when a Bill O’Brien team depleted by the infamous sanctions prevailed 39-28. One has to look back to 2005 for a close game, which the Lions won 34-29. The all-time series weighs heavily in PSU’s favor, 13-3. OK, I lied about always playing tough. Looking back, 1997, 2001 and 2005 were the only really close games and Penn State won them all. The two most recent losses were during the [cue cello music in foreboding minor key] Dark Years. Northwestern beat the boys in 2003 and 2004, by scores of 17-7 and 14-7, respectively.

Now that I’ve proven that I can do Internet football history look-ups, let’s move on.

Penn State’s defense is the strength of this team, so let’s get that out of the way first. They lead the NCAA FBS in rushing defense and rank tenth in total defense, sixth in scoring defense. Yeah, the front seven is to be respected, but we don’t really know how much respect to give them yet, having played a single conference game against one of the weaker teams in the conference. I’m not so sure they’ll be tested this week, but they will soon be into the heart of the Big Ten schedule and then we’ll know a lot more. I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt and consider them rock solid, at least against the run.

Team passing efficiency defense ranks only 19th in the NCAA, and this stat was inflated by five gift interceptions of Gary “Turn” Nova in the Rutgers game. I’m pronouncing the secondary a very definite “too soon to tell”. The pass rush is sort of “meh”, too, having recorded 12 sacks for 75 yards in four games.

On offense, you know the story. The UMass game was the only game this season with a balanced offensive attack, and it was only because PSU faced a limp dishrag defense. The inexperienced PSU O-line could play with them and make Z/28 (got that right, Mike?) look good. All other games relied on the arm of Christian Hackenberg and a tandem of great receivers, Geno Lewis and DaeSean Hamilton, to seal the deal. Dramatic game saving drives have been necessary to pull Penn State out of the hole  on two occasions, and the Hack Attack has proven itself capable of performing under duress.

However, how did they get into those predicaments requiring the comebacks? Turnovers, man. Although the Lions rank in the middle of the NCAA pack with a zero net turnover margin, the aforementioned Gary Nova giftage is responsible. Otherwise, they’d be down at the bottom of the heap again.

But Northwestern — OY! They rank 103rd in rushing yards. While that is two notches above Penn State, it certainly suuuuuuuuucks! Ranking 75th in passing yards, they don’t seem to have a fine selection of offensive weaponry. Defensively, they’re middle of the pack or lower, and just look at their quality of opposition for a clue as to how that might play out.

One thing to watch out for, though, is superstud defensive lineman Ifeadi Odenigbo, who will be gunning for Hack on every passing down. Given that Northwestern allows 136 yards per game in rushing, this might be a good time to continue to develop the Penn State running game and take some pressure off the Hackeroo.

The weather for the game should be beautiful fall football weather, 76 and sunny. This should not affect any aspect of anyone’s game. However, it’s a noon start, which used to spell disaster for Penn State. Fortunately, the game is at home, but it was also at home last week when PSU played UMass with its thumbs up its collective ass in the first quarter.

So, now, let’s get down to brass tacks, already. It is time for the Official Turkey Poop Prediction. At season’s outset, I asked our distinguished panel of predictors to forecast each game, and they were unanimous in their selection of Penn State for this game. Who is this turkey to buck that esteemed consensus? The present gambling line favors the Nittany Lions by 9.5, with an over/under of 47. This suggests a final score in the neighborhood of 28-19. Given that the running game is not “there” yet and the noon start doldrums might crop up, I’m tempted to go with the “under”. But I won’t. I’m going to be optimistic, for a change. Penn State 38, Northwestern 10. Take the over.

 

We’re Listening, NWU Playaz

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Quaecumque sunt veraToday is the day on which the Northwestern Wildcats will vote on whether they will organize a union. Interesting times in collegiate sports are afoot. While the vote today is not going to instantly transform anything, it is one step in what can be a major shake-up of the whole mess.

I would expect the Wildcats to reject the unionization. By their own admission, they’re treated pretty well there. Northwestern is the starting point, a test case, as it were, only because this effort to unionize college sports and treat players as university employees was spearheaded by former Northwestern quarterback Kain Colter. Northwestern is a private school with some pretty good credentials. My thought is that so-called student-athletes there have a good thing going and won’t want to rock the boat, no matter how much Colter lobbies for his case.

Even if they do vote for the union, the NLRB decision that the players could be treated as employees is under review. Nothing happens very fast in Washington, as you well know.

But the times, they are a-changin’, as Bob Dylan would assert. College sports are big money generators, and greedy meat hooks gravitate toward big money generators. A transformation will take place, and these rumblings will become a groundswell no matter how the NWU players vote.

Certainly, the NWU model will be mimicked elsewhere, in venues more likely to go the union direction, where players are not treated as well as they are at Northwestern. Basketball mills might be an early target due to the fewer number of players and the inner city urban nature of the constituency.

Unions aside, this turkey believes that these so-called student athletes are actually university employees, and they need to be compensated for putting money in the till for their employers. They need to be reimbursed for living expenses, and paid a decent salary. Furthermore, they need to get a cut of the money they generate from product endorsements. This can be an indirect kind of thing, such as the establishment of a fund for ongoing medical expenses and living expenses for warriors injured in combat. It can’t go on the way it has gone — with the universities and the NCAA reaping all the rewards while so-called student-athletes risk life-changing injuries to generate rewards they will never see.

 

Steppin’ in It

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We used to call it “Sphincter Ball”. Penn State’s venerable erstwhile head coach Joe Paterno was a percentage player, not a gambler. Numerous instances of his exasperatingly conservative calls pollute our football memories with sad tales of lost opportunities. It was annoying, and it typically led to unsatisfyingly mixed feelings of Pyrrhic victories when the conservatism paid off, and anger when it didn’t.

“Never up, never in.”

“You can’t hit a home run if you don’t step up to the plate.”

Sports metaphors abound.

“The defensive form of war is not a simple shield, but a shield made up of well-directed blows.” —Carl von Clausewitz

Why couldn’t we have tried a play-action pass instead of running it up the gut four times, only to turn the ball over on downs at the one yard-line? I don’t have to tell you which specific game that was, because there were many similar examples through the years and you all know them well. I had Michigan in mind, but it might well have been Alabama. The M.O. was the same.

Well, that boring-ass crap is out the window now that the Bill O’Brien regime has firmly taken hold. Suddenly, one looks back over the past quarter-century or so and wonders what kind of glory was sidetracked by conservative play calling. (The 1995 Rose Bowl team was an exception — no amount of crappy play calling could have held back that offensive juggernaut.) The old philosophy of handing the job of winning games to the defense while employing the offense to give the defense a blow, exemplified by little foibles like always deferring when the initial coin-toss was won, sucks big time. Balance wins ball games.

At Mike’s Garage, the usual suspects assembled for their usual dose of Penn State football. A boring first half led to a discussion of modern European history, replete with mentions the megalomaniacal meanderings of the mad mini-Corsican, Napoleon Bonaparte, and incorporating the significance of the Hohenzollerns, the Franco-Prussian War, and the Polish Corridor as Europe progressed through the 19th and 20th centuries. However, along the way, we forgot to ask a very important Machiavellian question with relevance to this football game, to reel in our group digression.

“The best defense is a good offense.” Who the hell originally said that?

I’ve always thought it was Vince Lombardi, late coach of the Giants, Packers, and Redskins. I was wrong about that. Apparently the old adage finds its roots in paraphrased military writings, in particular, the philosophical musings of Prussian military genius Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831), to wit:

Although the concept of defense is parrying a blow and its characteristic feature is awaiting the blow,  “if we are really waging war, we must return the enemy’s blows. . . .  Thus a defensive campaign can be fought with offensive battles. . .   “The defensive form of war is not a simple shield, but a shield made up of well-directed blows.”

The object of defense is preservation; and since it is easier to hold ground than to take it, defense is easier than attack.  “But defense has a passive purpose: preservation; and attack a positive one: conquest. . . .  If defense is the stronger form of war, yet has a negative object, if follows that it should be used only so long as weakness compels, and be abandoned as soon as we are strong enough to pursue a positive object.”

Defense is the stronger form of waging war.

Former heavyweight boxing champion Jack Dempsey might have been the individual who popularized the assertion in the sports context; he certainly exemplified the philosophy in his pugilistic endeavors.

So, somehow, we must have known that the answer involved Prussia, but by then we were waking up for the second half.

So, folks, did you see what the hell happened out there in the second half on Saturday? We all are happy that the Nittany Lions (4-2, 2-0 Big Ten) whipped the previously undefeated #24 Northwestern Wildcats (5-1, 1-1 Big Ten) 39-28. That’s obvious. However, this Turkey’s joy relates to how the victory was attained, coming  from behind with a mighty, risk-taking 22-point fourth quarter surge after allowing a special teams’ let-down to jeopardize a game that was well in hand, a masterpiece of O’Brienesque ball control football.

Get a grip! Yeah, I know. As Brian Griese, color commentator for ESPN, said, “Put this in perspective, people. It was Northwestern that they beat!” I don’t hold any disdain for Griese for making that strong statement, because he’s correct. It is not like they were out there playing Alabama and outwitting Nick Saban. We’re dealing with Northwestern and Pat Fitzgerald. So, let’s keep our egos in check, shall we?

On the other hand, there is much to be proud of, and my unabated joy over the offensive play-calling has to be something you share. “Going for it” on fourth down is no longer just a compromise because of an ineffectual field goal kicker. It is now a weapon.

Down 14-10 at the intermission after a mundane first half, I was prepared to sleep through the second half.

The head coach had different ideas. “Our staff and myself, we tried to talk to the players and get them going,” said the Nittany Lions’ head coach, who many now feel is a strong candidate for coach of the year. “We felt like we could move the ball.”

Bill O’Brien and staff were obviously successful in motivating the players with the direct cajoling approach, if not beating it into their heads, but beyond that I’ll throw another cliché at ya: Nothing succeeds like success. When this bunch of guys realize that they can win, they will  win.

By now, you know all the highlights, but I’ll sum it up.

  • I think the old, Paterno-run teams of the past quarter-century (with obvious exception noted above) would have played sphincterball and lost after being demoralized by Venric Mark’s 75-yard punt return to increase NWU’s lead to 28-17 with a minute left in the third quarter.
  • With the old style of play firmly inbrained in my grain, I thought, “Uh oh. Here comes the second half defensive let-down. Now, the floodgates will open.”
  • I didn’t even have a chance to think about the famous Wildcat fourth quarter meltdowns against Penn State of recent revered memory, the most famous of which involved a fourth quarter gamble from Mike Robinson to Isaac Smolko in 2005. So, don’t let me be too rough on Paterno teams of the past. He just tightened up the old bungvalve when he felt that he had inferior talent, but when he had confidence in someone like M-Rob, he took off the leash.
  • I did yell, “Mistake!” on a couple of those fourth-down conversion tries. Yeah, I know that Sam Ficken couldn’t hit a bull in the ass with a bag of rice, although he made an 85-yarder on a kickoff (LOL), but still, those calls took BIG BRASS BALLS.
  • You could say that Penn State had nothing to lose, but I would be willing to bet that O’Brien would make the same calls if the conference championship were at stake. This guy has cojones!
  • The announced attendance of 95,769 sucks. This is Homecoming, people! I mean 13,000 empty seats and it wasn’t even snowing. WTF??? This was an amazing game to watch. What do you people want?
  • Sam Ficken batted 1.000 for the day. You can’t beat that with a stick!
  • PSU covered the spread and hit the “over” hard. WTG, boys!
  • If containing Colter was an object, then big kudos to the Big D! Five carries for 24 yards. Good work, guys!

Five of six fourth down conversions. Yeah, some of them against a very tired defense, but all part of a well-oiled, well-adjusted game plan. I’m proud of the boys and their coach.

The stats, of course, made the game appear much more lopsided in favor of Penn State than it actually was, given that the 75-yard punt return by #5 could have very easily won the game for NWU. Statistics are almost always misleading in the face of fortune.  Nevertheless, the plan to keep Northwestern’s defense gasping for breath succeeded. Time of possession advantage to Penn State: about 40 minutes to 20. If any statistics support a win, that is the one.

OK, folks, those are my post-game thoughts. Not much detail and statistical analysis here, just post-game emotion (PGE). Please share your thoughts similarly. BigAl, what did they screw up this time?