The Nittany Turkey

Primarily about Penn State football, this is a tale told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

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So…

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I’m eating Thanksgiving leftovers and I think I had too much wine. Still, even. I hope you all had a very happy and non-dysfunctional Thanksgiving with your families.

Wisconsin BadgersSo, I’m thinking: Why do we now start and end spoken sentences with “so”?  So there’s no good reason for it and I don’t like it, so… It serves no actual purpose to interject “so” at the beginning or end of a sentence and you’re only doing it because you heard someone else do it, so cut it the hell out! So, chupacabras don’t need hair and your stupid sentences don’t need superfluous non-functional words. So, sue me.

When I get that sentence starting with “so” crap flung at me, I’m thinking that a long, boring story is about to be launched. “So, a guy walks into a bar…” But these days, it doesn’t imply a segue or a consequent or a verbal change of pace. It’s just something to say. It doesn’t have to make sense. It’s vogue. It suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucks.

So the Wisconsin game is upon us and so this turkey — who miraculously escaped the Thanksgiving butcher block  once again — is full of shit as usual, so…

The Nittany Lions (6-5, 3-4 B1G) travel to Madison to meet the #15 Wisconsin Badgers (9-2, 6-1 B1G) for a chance to repeat last year’s miraculous victory that warmed our hearts with an improbable 8-4 season that will always be known because it was accomplished by a “bunch of fuckers.” What lies in store this year, however, might create only heartburn.

The Nittany Lions remain mired in mediocrity while the Badgers have made Thanksgiving mincemeat of the Big Ten, with the exception of Ohio State, to whom they lost by a single touchdown. Their only other loss was broadly acknowledged to be the result of a bad call that allowed Arizona State to prevail 32-30. The Badgers are coming off a 20-7 victory over Minnesota, while the Lions, well, you know what happened last week against Nebraska.

The sad fact for Wisconsin is that they’re in the wrong Big Ten division. They’re probably good enough to give tOSU a good run for their money in a second encounter, but they won’t get that opportunity. Rose Bowl hopes are still marginally alive, but Capital One might be their fate, especially if Moo U. has something to say about it.

Penn State, of course, has nowhere to go after this game, and they’re squawking big time about it being “their bowl game.” Yeah, right. I’ll give you their bowl game, already. In the head, I’ll give you.

The Badgers like to run the football. They’ve always liked to run. See Wisconsin run. Run run run. Their offensive line is huge, as usual. Two guys carry the load running the football, James White and Melvin Gordon to produce the second best rushing attack in the Big Ten and the eighth best in the country.

However, don’t write off Wisconsin’s ability to go to the air, which they do do occasionally and they do do that voodoo that  you do so well, so…  In spite of their 95th overall ranking in passing yards, they have weapons. Jared Abbrederis is a threat and he must be contained. So he averages over 15 yards per catch and has seven touchdowns. So redshirt sophomore quarterback Joel Stave has completed 63% of his passes with 17 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. A problem exists in that Adrian Amos hurt his foot against Nebraska, which means that an already suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugalicious Penn State secondary might possibly be hurting even more.

Wisconsin allows only 13.4 points per game. Mighty Indiana scored only a field goal on ’em. Of course, two patsies who were shut out early in the season, UMass and TTU, skewed that average downward. But hell, we all have our patsies, so…

Can Penn State employ its resurgent running game to advantage against the Badgers? Well, We’re dealing with the 7th overall ranked rushing defense (3rd in the B1G), which allows only 99.1 yards per game. I suspect that rushing yardage totals will be somewhat demure in the final stats, as it were. We’ll probably get to see the entire Nittsky Lion troika of runners in this game, as it is this turkey’s fervent hope and dream that Bill “I Sick” Belton has recovered.

Wisconsin ranks 10th nationally in passing yards allowed. So, opponents have thrown only eight touchdown passes against them. It will be interesting to see what gives with Christian Hackenberg and Allen “Gimme da Damn Ball” Robinson when Penn State’s run is shut down and they’re forced to pass.

So the one team that should clean Penn State’s clock quite thoroughly is suckier than even Sam Ficken at kicking field goals — employing a place kicker by committee approach, they miss a third of them. However, on the other hand, so they have a great return unit that leads the B1G while their coverage unit is competent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another coverage breakdown leading to a score against the Nittaroos.

And speaking of breakdowns, how’s PSU doing with respect to its season-long third down conversion suckage? Last week was yet another abortion, meaning that the Lions didn’t crack the top 100 in that category. They’re safely ensconced at #104, with a 34% completion rate. That suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucks!

And how about turnovers? They’ve actually improved to a -5, good for a tie for 89th.

Distinguished Opponent’s Alumnus of the Week

William S. Harley 1880-1943
William S. Harley 1880-1943

So, where would we be without William Sylvester Harley? I’ll tell you where we wouldn’t be: hog heaven! Why? Because William S. Harley, along with Arthur Davidson, founded the Harley-Davidson Motor Company (NYSE stock symbol HOG) in 1903 and was its chief engineer until he died in 1943.

Harley received a degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1907.

A veritable legend who founded a legendary company.

Da Wedda

You should know better than to ask me about Wisconsin weather in late November? Why? Because you know it suuuuuuuuuuuuucks! Kickoff will be at 3:30, just as the temperature begins to fall from its daytime high of 36° on the way to its overnight low of 20° — a warm, balmy late fall day at Camp Randall. The weatherman says “some sun”, whatever the hell that means. (Today, he said “partly sunny” and Sunday, he’s forecasting “partial sunshine”, so I guess “some sun” is somewhere in-between.) Winds will be negligible. Humidity is 7%, something a Floridian would kill for until he or she realizes that it means getting jolted repeatedly by static electricity when touching metal objects. No preciptation is forecast. Global warming? Harrumpph!

So, Predict Already!

So we’ve reached that part of the post in which your fearless forecaster (not the AccuWeather guy) takes a shot at predicting the game at hand, so…

Nobody particularly cares about this game except for partisans of the two schools. Why? The Iron Bowl, Alabama vs Auburn, kicks off at the same time. (So does Purdue at Indiana, but I digress).

So even so, the gamblers have established a 24.5 spread (you can guess in whose favor) with an over/under of 49.5. This suggests a Wisconsin win with a score of about 37-13. The money is pretty lopsided in favor of Wisconsin, but there is a sizable contingent of PSU homeys who cannot resist getting what they think is an overlay.

It isn’t. Wisconsin is that much better. Sue me if I’m wrong, but I think the Lions will have a hard time getting their asses out of the blocks for this one. (If you want to use sportspeak to murder the preceding sentence as is the present vogue in sports talking and sports writing, you couch it  like this: “Sue me if I’m wrong, but the Lions have a hard time getting out of the blocks for this one.” Huh? People are actually not only speaking like that, but are also writing that way, too. Is nothing sacred? Oh, hell, I’ll use that abominable technique in my prediction just to get it the hell out of my system.)

Wisconsin has something to play for — a better bowl. Penn State has to play for — the seniors. [Begin abominable ESPN sportspeak vogue grammar.] If Penn State plays this at home as it did last year, if Penn State has the senior leadership it had last year, and if Penn State isn’t bitten by the injury bug [that expression makes me puke, too — LOL :D], that bunch of Penn State fuckers win in a heartbeat. WTF did that mean? So none of those conditions are true, meaning PSU goes down in flames. Wisconsin 42, Penn State 6. Take the under.

I’ll be back after the game with a recap and the usual bullshit. As for now, I’ve got a hockey game to watch.

Wrong Again, Happily

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I deserve all the scorn that has come and will come my way as the Nittany Lions (8-4, 6-2 Big Ten) defeated the Badgers (7-5, 4-4), who are heading to Indianapolis through the back door, to close a season replete with unexpected successes. The final score in the single overtime victory was 24-21.

On an emotional Senior Day, Mike Mauti, sidelined with a knee injury, was the team’s inspiration. Several players wore his number 42 on their helmets and even on their backs in tribute to the fallen hero, who is the living symbol of the fire and determination of the 2012 seniors. Mauti, dressed in civvy jeans and his number 42 jersey, led the team spiritually from the sideline, and participated in the coin tosses.

Whatever mojo Mauti supplied was visible on the field. As the hack sportswriters said, this was Penn State’s bowl game. No post-season for them. The Badgers, on the other hand, were inextricably plugged into the Leaders Division slot in the Big Ten Conference championship game in Indianapolis next week, although they would wind up in third place behind the Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions, both of whom are enjoined from post-season play. I wrote on Friday that the game really didn’t matter for either team, but apparently, Penn State didn’t get the message.

(Wisconsin will play Nebraska for the Big Ten title on Saturday. Legends Division champ Nebraska (10-2, 7-1) defeated Iowa (4-8, 2-6) 13-7 in a game of no import whatsoever. ??? ???? ?????? )

To this turkey, it seemed that Bret Bielema altered his typical game plan for whatever reason. In any case, the Penn State defense was fired up and ready for whatever the Badgers threw at them, aerially and terrestrially. Glenn Carson led the way with nine solo tackles and four assists, while Jordan Hill, who seemed to be everywhere at once, had eight and four. They held Montee Ball to 111 net yards, and kept the Badgers well under their 212-yard season rushing average with a mere 158. It was a fine defensive showing that also forced Wisconsin to go 5-16 on third-down conversions.

Meanwhile, Zach Zwinach was the offensive story for the Nittany Lions. He had what you might call a career day, with 36 carries for 179 yards and a touchdown. The hot-headed Matt McGloin, who at one point admonished his offensive lineman to give him some protection, wound up 19-37 for 200 yards and a touchdown. He was sacked three times.

We finally got to see the return of Bill Belton, who was pressed into service as a kick returner. He returned one for 17 yards.

Sam Ficken was a perfect 3-3, including what turned out to be the winning field goal. ???? ???? ?????? It must have been a great feeling for the guy who many fans wanted to run out of town at various points in the first half of the season, and who single-footedly inspired a change in the Penn State offense to favor fourth-down conversion attempts over field goal attempts.

The announced attendance of 93,505 sucked. The weather might have been a factor, but the low number was a disappointment. In fact, it was the least attended game since the last major Beaver Stadium expansion.

I’m glad I was way off with my prediction. The gamblers hit the over/under right down the middle. ??? ???? ?? ???????? The spread was correctly small.

This was the game the Nittany Lions needed to cap a season in which just about everyone’s expectations were exceeded, not the least of all being this turkey. Eight wins? Who knew. Much deserved praise will be heaped on them this morning. They’ll be long remembered as a group that overcame significant barriers to produce a pleasing outcome.

And Mark Emmert can eat shit.

Sudden Impact: Senior Day & What Not

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It’s that time of the season again, the day when we recognize the contributions of the senior ballers who have led the Nittany Lions through thick and thin, some of them for four or five seasons. This issue of Sudden Impact takes a jaundiced look at the game itself, which is the final game of the season, damnit. And, of course, there is no need to mention that there will be no post-season, but I mention it anyway. Before I get to the Wisconsin game, though, I want to vent about something that happened on my Thanksgiving trip.

I had just arrived in Ft. Lauderdale after a four-hour drive from up here in Central Florida. I was hungry, so before I checked in at my hotel, I wanted to pick up a sandwich to eat in my room.

The scene is a Publix supermarket in Davie, Florida. I proceed to the deli section to buy a sandwich. As I arrive there, I encounter a Hispanic babe sitting on the edge of the open-top cooler, with her butt hanging squarely on one of those large, round party sandwich platters. I glare at her and loudly admonish her (so all the louts who stood there saying nothing would take note), “Yeah, like we all want to eat sandwiches that had your ass all over them!” She gets up. I pick up what I need from the deli and I am leaving when out of the corner of my eye I see Juanita about to plunk her ass down in the cooler again. So, I turn around and snap at her, “I’m still here!” She gets up again. All the while, her little flat-affect toddler is sitting in the cart looking at me with big brown eyes that asked “WTF??”

Question for my trusted readers: Do you think I was polite enough or should I have done it in Spanish?

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Bill O’Brien establishes a new tradition for Senior Day practices.

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So,  here we are at the end of another season. Everyone’s saying, “Boy, that went fast!” Sometimes, the end comes mercifully, like 2004, but this year no one wanted to see it end. This scrappy bunch of guys just kept getting better as the season wore on.

Let’s get this out of the way before we go any further. You really needed that, you know!

Wisconsin BadgersYou won’t be surprised to know that Penn State is the underdog in this game. Why should Wisconsin (7-4, 4-3 Big Ten) be favored over Penn State (7-4, 5-2)? They have identical overall records, and Penn State has only two conference losses versus the Badgers’ three. I suppose the punters and the gamblers all believe that Wisconsin is the better team. We need to look at this more closely.

Wisconsin’s losses were to #15 Oregon State (8-2), #14 Nebraska (9-2), Moo U. (5-6), and #4* OSU (11-0). Penn State lost to Ohio (8-3), Virginia (4-7), #4* OSU (11-0), and #14 Nebraska (9-2). Yeah, Penn State lost to some pretty crappy opponents, but Wisconsin beat Northern Iowa and Utah State by the slimmest of margins.

So, it’s not in the comparative records of the two schools this year. It obviously isn’t in the home field advantage, because this is a home game for the Nittany Lions. It’s not “Penn State prejudice” by the Big Ten traditionalists, as the Penn State paranoiacs would have it, because we’re not talking politics, we’re talking people’s hard-earned money. The money is clearly going the Badgers’ way.

Home field advantage is usually good for roughly a field goal, but Wisconsin is favored by two points. That’s saying that on a neutral field, Penn State is worse than Wisconsin by almost two field goals. Do you believe that?

I do. I’ll give you my reasons forthwith, but first I’ve got to say that, unlike Penn State, Wisconsin was in contention in both the Ohio State and Nebraska games right down to the wire. There is no second-half letdown with these guys — unlike Penn State. I’ve been harping on that and I will continue to harp on it until O’Brien gets something done about it, although some of it is structural — a lack of depth leading to defensive fatigue.

Wisconsin plays ball control football. They don’t have an amazing, quick strike offense, just a ponderously pachydermal offensive line, a plundering Heisman finalist tailback, and a penurious defense.  In the overtime loss to Ohio State, for example, Wisconsin held the time-of-possession advantage, 37:17 to 22:43; beating Indiana 62-14 (the game in which the Badgers rang up 524 yards rushing), they utterly dominated: 39:27 to 20:33. ????? ??????? If ever there were a game in which stopping the run was key, this one sure as hell is it.

Want to wear down a defense? Throw an offensive line at them with an average weight of 326 lbs.(contrast with Nebraska’s corn-fed beef averaging 300 and Penn State averaging 306) , including 6-8, 342 lb right tackle Rob Havenstein and 6-4, 338 lb center Travis Frederick, then repeatedly hand the ball off to a quartet of running backs headed up by Montee Ball. You couple that with a defense that is lacking in depth and what do you have? A Penn State defensive line that drags its ass in the second half, opening up the floodgates for the full Montee.

Wisconsin’s run might be stoppable, but it will require a fully staffed and fresh defense to do it. With the loss of Mike Mauti, the defense is short an additional man-and-a-half. Not a good portent for this game. The Ohio State and Nebraska games were manageable in their first halves, but when the second half rolled around, their offenses gathered a second wind while our defense couldn’t manage to do so. I think this game will go the same way.

By the numbers, Wisconsin is averaging 217.64 ypg rushing (17th) and 165.64 ypg passing (110th nationally and worst in the B1G). Montee Ball is the seventh ranked runner in the nation and tops in the B1G with an average of 128.82. James White averages 61.82 per game. Can Penn State’s rushing defense, which allows 125.73 ypg (23rd) stop this rampaging runaway freight train? Methinks not.

Zach Zwinach has been doing well of late. His season average is 74.64. However, he’ll have a rough time running on Wisconsin, who allow 106.64 ypg (9th). If Matt McGloin and his talented receivers are our hope, we’ll have to be hoping pretty hard, because Wisconsin is also 25th in passing efficiency defense as well as pass defense versus the 34th ranked Nittany Lion passing offense. Nevertheless, McGloin’s ability to disrupt the Badger defense with well placed passes is indeed our great white hope for this game. I’d love to count on that, but with Kyle Carter out of the picture due to injury, it’s just that much more difficult.

The Badgers won’t be passing much, as they’re down to their third starting quarterback of the season, good ol’ What’s-His-Name. But Whosis doesn’t really need to toss the ball around when he has the full Montee and the Beefburgers. Wisconsin started out looking good at quarterback when they obtained a pre-season commitment from Danny O’Brien, whom they thought to be a ready-made starting quarterback to replace the departed Russell Wilson. It didn’t work out that way, and head coach Bret Bielema has found himself in the quintessential quarterback quandary ever since.

Wisconsin is heading to the Big Ten title game and Penn State is headed to final exams. The potential exists for a letdown due to the meaninglessness of this game, although a win would be a fitting tribute to the valiant seniors. Nonetheless, Wisconsin owns the series, winning nine of 11 games, usually winning by a huge margin.

It doesn’t help that Nittany Lions’ special teams have sucked and will continue to suck. Alas, Wisconsin has a couple of returners that could spell trouble to the coverage units. Alex Butterworth’s punts have been inconsistent, but if the game is not close, that won’t make a difference. Neither will Sam Ficken’s inconsistency. Is Ficken finally kickin’? Is he rounding into form? If so, too little and too late. This game won’t come down to a field goal, anyway.

McGloin seems to get flustered when he has to come from behind. He doesn’t control his emotions well, and he makes mistakes. He needs to shitcan that stuff when the going gets tough in this game. Will he? I believe that it will be difficult for him to do so, although I’ll repeat that he is a much improved player this year over last. I think he’ll wind up second string all-conference quarterback behind Taylor Martinez when the teams are announced on Monday.

The weather will be good old Central Pennsylvania Thanksgiving weekend weather. Forecast high is 36°F (0.0237298 electron volts) with snow showers totally likely. Gusty northeast winds of 14-26 mph (375 – 697 meters per second) will conspire against Ficken’s kickin’. The combination of temperature, snow, and wind (better known as “the weather”) might also conspire against halfway decent Senior Day attendance, which will be a crying shame.

Bret Bielema is a good coach. Bill O’Brien is a good coach. It’s about even there.

So, who’s going to win? I’ll tell you who’s going to win. ??? ???? ???????? Wisconsin’s going to win, and by a lot. The question going into this game is whether Penn State can beat a legitimate team. The Lions had their chances to prove that with Ohio State and Nebraska, but they weren’t up to the task.  So, this is it, the Test with a capital “T”. Wisconsin has weaknesses, but in spite of those deficits, they’re arguably able to play with the top teams in the B1G conference. I don’t think our guys will pass The Test. And so, sadly, it is time for the Last Official Turkey Poop Prediction for 2012. The gamblers favor the Badgers by two and the over/under is 45. (Contrast that with an over/under of 72 for the OK State vs Oklahoma game!) There just ain’t no substitute for good, old fashioned, ball control oriented power football, particularly when you have a side of beef at each OL position. Wisconsin wins this one going awayyyyyyyyyy 34-13, beating Penn State straight up and covering the spread. Ficken will be kickin’ two good ones for three attempts. Take the over. 

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A special surprise (which is no longer a surprise) is in store for Senior Day. The 2012 team will join other special teams  with their year posted permanently on the suites at Beaver Stadium. This turkey believes that 2012 needs to be remembered for many things, and thus, this is an appropriate thing to do. Facilitated by the draconian sanctions levied against Penn State by Mark Emmert and the NCAA, these seniors all could have bolted to other schools with impunity, but they stayed and exceeded everybody’s expectations. Screw you, Mark Emmert! May this 2012 also be a constant reminder that you are a total asshole and try as you will to destroy Penn State’s football program, the Nittany Lions will persevere. ???? ??????? ?????

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Speaking of the Big Ten expansion, I have to wonder who will wind up being Penn State’s rivalry match-up in the future, for the traditional end-of-season rivalry game. Maryland? Call it the Mason-Dixon Trophy and have it jointly designed by Penn State and Maryland functionaries? I smell another Land Grant Trophy in the making. But if they make the Terps the Nittany Lions’ season-end rivals, what would happen with Rutgers? Perhaps the Big Ten would have to bring in UNLV and make the game between the two casino states the Wise Guy Bowl and make it for the Pimm’s Cup.

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So, the latest NCAA investigation involving cultures of football is Auburn University. Some culture!

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Speaking of cultures of football, reader Joe turned up this mathematical paper co-authored by offensive lineman John Urschel, titled Instabilities in the Sun-Jupiter-Asteroid Three Body Problem. Yeah, we Penn Staters are all about football, and our players are semi-literate, right? Emmert can click on the link and shove dat up his astrophysical ass!

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Joel's DoormatLastly, in our Humor Department, as you know, I traveled south to be with my family for Thanksgiving. Arriving at my misanthropic, antisocial brother’s house, I was warmly greeted by the “welcome mat” pictured at left. The food was good, though.

 

That’ll do it until the next time, when we’ll look at the Wisconsin game in retrospect. In the meanwhile, I hope you all had a great tryptophan nap and are ready to rock and roll for Saturday’s big game!