#20 Penn State (5-2, 2-2 B10) vs #5 tOSU (6-1, 4-0)

I couldn’t think of a better title for this blog post, so I chose “meatballs.” It is silly and meaningless, reflecting the futility I feel regarding Penn State’s fleeting chances for vindicating the 2020 fiasco with a halfway decent performance this year. Cruelly, 2021 now starts to look like 2020 in reverse. ????? ??????

The banged-up Nittany Lions enter the Horseshoe with 13% chance to win, according to ESPN. I don’t agree. Unless Stroud, Henderson, Olave, and Wilson all suddenly contract Covid-19, this mother should be over by halftime. ???? ???

That last fucked-up mess with Illinois should tell us all that this team is headed in the wrong direction, with its head coach, James Franklin, making questionable decisions both on and off the field. Playing Sean Clifford in the Illinois game was an incredible risk that didn’t pay off. Furthermore, it may have prolonged Clifford’s injury, whatever the hell that might have been, while it displaced playing time for his two backups, which they sorely need. All for what? WTF?

What we saw with Illinois was a complete sellout by Bret Bielema to favor the run. Despite many attempts by the Illini to shoot themselves in the foot, the run worked over and over against an unprepared Penn State defense. Dared to stop the run, they couldn’t, so Bielema just kept calling the same play. And it kept working. WTF?

Now, Ohio State is a different animal. The Schmuckeyes are a complete team, once again the best in the Big Ten. ??? ???? ????? ?? ??????? They faltered once, against a decent collection of Oregonian quackers, but they seem to have gotten back on track, averaging 559 yards per game, of which 352 are passing and 207 are on the ground. PSU is allowing 324 yards — 178 passing and 146 rushing. Yet, who have they faced with a juggernaut offense like the Buckin’ Fuckeyes? WTF?

The mighty I-Dotters have the top scoring offense in all the FBS — by far — averaging 49.3 ppg. Their closest contender is Alabama, at 45.9. They are third in the country in third-down conversions at 57.7%. (You must go to the third page of stats to find Penn State, who rank 115th, converting third downs a putrid 33% of the time). WTF?

Defensively, they rank first in Defensive TDs, with FOUR PICK SIXES and one fumble recovery for a TD. However, they rank only 18th in scoring defense, giving up over eighteen points per game, mostly in garbage time.

How can Penn State win? Franklin needs his team to focus on going 1-0 this week by eliminating distractions and playing hard. Looks good on paper, but it ain’t happening. Franklin’s refusal to deny that he is either looking elsewhere or being considered elsewhere for a high-profile open coaching position (USC and LSU have been mentioned) is making matters worse even while Franklin pays lip service to averting distractions. He could easily eliminate this distracting element by flatly denying that he will leave Penn State. Yet, he won’t do it. Instead, he fuels further speculation by hiring a new super-agent, leaving us all — and more importantly, the team — in a quandary. Then, he leaves his backup QBs sit while he lets his most talented offensive player reinjure himself with no hope for a viable replacement. Oy vey.

Enough of the 1-0 this week, no distractions crap. They’re not going to beat the Schmuckeyes. If they even get close, I will be here eating crow and accepting scornful reprisals on Sunday morning.

Da Wedda

The weatherperson is calling for another grey, shitty fall day in Columbus. Like gray, man, with a high of 58, a low of 45, and occasional rain and drizzle. The same kind of crap we had for the Illinois game. Rain probability is 53%, with 97% cloud cover. Wind gusts to 15% should result in one missed field goal by Jordan Stout, which might well be the only available scoring opportunity.

Da Bottom Line

Boy, what a money-making opportunity we had last week, with PSU favored over Illinois by 23½. I hope you all made money on that one!

This week’s line opened at tOSU – 11, but after the Illinois loss, the spread widened to 18½. The over/under remained at 60½. Gamblers are still giving Penn State some respect, methinks. As I, Roseanne Rosanadana, see at least a three-touchdown difference between these two.

The gambling line works out to the Schmuckeyes winning 40-21. Ya think? Penn State couldn’t score more than ten points on Illinois in regulation, so they’re going to DOUBLE that production here? You’re dreaming. I see the Nittanites putting up a good fight in the first five minutes, but after that it will be all over. At our watch party we can talk about cars or food. Maybe drink some wine and fall into a drunken stupor to mask the pain. Or we can talk about how clean the Buckin’ Fuckeyes’ uniforms are when Ryan Day brings in the third string in the third quarter. Or we could marvel at how wonderfully the fucking “I” was dotted by the oldest living alumnus who played the sousaphone for the band in 1939. Ohio State 57, Penn State 6. Take the over, only because Brutus told me to say that.

(I’ll be back after the game to either eat crow (highly doubtful) or feed you more of my bullshit).

Illinois 20, Penn State 18 (27 OT)

It was a shitty day in University Park in more ways than one. Formerly #7 Penn State (5-2, 2-2 B10) went down in ignominious Homecoming defeat to Lowly Illinois (3-5, 2-3 B10), 20-18, requiring countless overtimes to rub it in even more.

Stats go out the window in this latest equivalent of the 2004 Iowa vs. Penn State 6-4 Homecoming Tragedy. The main new notable absence was the Penn State rushing defense. (We had already given up on the rushing offense). Despite several self-pedal extremity directed cannonballs by the Illinois offense, the Formerly Fighting Illini outlasted a worn-out (albeit never present) PSU defense to ultimately prevail. I lost count of the so-called overtimes, which by current NCAA rules take on the characteristic of an NHL shootout after a while. Penn State’s denouement was brutal, telling, and final.

Sanguinarians may now go into hiding. For them, the season, which held so much promise, is over. Welcome to 2004.

I ought to mention (again) that what we perceived to be the strength of this Nittany Lions 2021 Edition was its defense, which failed miserably in this losing effort, surrendering 395 yards. All but 38 of them were gained on the ground by a confident Illinois offense with a surprisingly capable offensive line. Well, they certainly looked capable against our inept front seven. Credit is due to Chase Brown, with 33 carries for 223 yards and a touchdown, and Josh McCray with 24 for 142, The absence of P. J. Mustipher no doubt contributed to the defensive debacle.

Penn State’s ineffectual offense, led by injured first-string QB Sean Clifford, produced only 227 yards, with merely 62 due to the weekly mostly absent running game. Clifford was 19-34 for 165 yards and a touchdown. The Lions converted a putrid 4 of 17 third down attempts, which is why the time of possession was skewed so heavily in favor of the Illini, 36 minutes to 24.

They Tried to Give It to Us!

Illinois couldn’t have tried much harder to throw the game to Penn State, with two fumbles lost and one interception. Penn State, in its offensive ineptitude, squandered those opportunities. And while Illinois was moved backward fifty yards by four penalties, Penn State had seven penalties for eighty-one yards. All aspects of the Nittany Lions’ game suuuuuuucked.

A big question in the minds of many Penn State fans is, “Why play Clifford?” He was clearly still nursing painful ribs, which would only be exacerbated by getting roughed up as the game progressed. His playbook was clearly limited in the running department, where he lost a net 28 yards, but his passing was off the mark, too. He might have been able to throw in no-contact drills during the week, but in a real game, chances were good that he would reinjure himself as he took hits. I don’t understand why we didn’t see one or both of the backups. This, after all, was the last opportunity for them to get game reps before the level of competition increases.

Disappointment is My Closest Friend

The Franklin Doctrine of concentrating on going 1-0 “this week” didn’t work. Whether it sacrificed next week, we’ll never know. How much worse would PSU have done with Roberson at the helm? We’ll never know. Of course, had the Lions won with Clifford, playing him would have been regarded as brilliant, and our disappointment would have been postponed until next week.

Number Seven? Bye bye! PSU doesn’t belong in the Top 25. No running game. Now, no running defense. A severely compromised starting quarterback and incapable backups. The season is hereby declared a mess.

From this point looking forward, I see no guaranteed wins. Not even Rutgers. I’m not saying they will all be losses, but the handwriting is on the wall for what appears to be yet another mediocre season. The 11-2 predictions at season’s outset are now by the boards. We’ll have the guaranteed loss next week to tOSU and at least one more. Maybe more. If we’re lucky, the post season will be played in a white porcelain bowl with running water and toilet paper close by. Detroit? New York? Awww, shit. Too soon to speculate on that.

I know what Paterno used to say: “You’re never as good as you think you are when you win, and you’re never as bad as you think you are when you lose.” But to lose like this before homecoming crowd who expected the football equivalent of a walkover is too painful for such poignant Paternoistic platitudes.

For the few Penn State fans who harbored anxiety over James Franklin leaving for USC or perhaps LSU, take heart! After this abortion, they won’t want him.

(I’ll be back when I recover, with an overview of our third straight loss.)

Penn State Season on the Line against the FFI

Yep, the 2021 season could all but vanish if the heavily favored #7 Nittany Lions (6-1, 2-1 B10) stumble against the Formerly Fighting Illini (FFI) (2-5, 1-3 B10) at High Noon on Homecoming Day.

Why do I even admit the possibility of stumbling? You DID see how our backup QB performed with the offense two weeks ago, right? You did see a veritable plethora of key injuries to key players, didn’t you?

Banged Up Lions

Penn State’s backup situation is not good. Not good at all. Ta’Quan Roberson can’t even get plays off. At least, he couldn’t in Iowa City. Talk about the noise all you want, but this act wasn’t ready for prime time and two weeks of practice with “the ones” won’t get it anywhere near ready for this week. Couple that with a demoralizing loss and some general lack of confidence after significant injury losses on both sides of the ball, and you have the potential for an upset this week. The upset potential is further enhanced by the natural tendency for everyone to look past this game to tOSU next weekend.

However. I guarantee that the FFI will not be worried about Ohio State. They are, as our guys should be, only concerned about going 1-0 this week.

The offensive brain trust has been working third-string freshman QB Christian Veilleux from Ottawa along with Roberson. Neither is seasoned enough at this point to run a game against a Big Ten opponent. I have not seen Veilleux in action and I have no idea of his strengths and weaknesses.

Not a Dumbass

Brett Bulimia (I know how it he really spells it) is not a dumbass, so he will no doubt ask his defense to load up on the run and force one of the raw QBs to pass, hoping for a disaster or two. Not that he really needs to worry, given the state of the Lions’ running game, which not only sucks this season, but now must be conducted without two talented running backs in Devyn Ford and John Lovett.

Bielema (actual spelling) spent the latter portion of the week doing damage control after he berated his roster earlier. He claims his remarks were taken out of context. That might be enough of a distraction to open the door a crack for Penn State. (I’m not Sanguinarianizing very much here, am I?).

Back to the field of mortal combat, Roberson can run, which might be the salvation if he can hang onto the ball. Maybe, just maybe, he’ll connect with one or two of our talented receivers, but I just don’t expect much from the passing game.

So, given all that, which you all knew already, let’s move on with this week’s predictions. First, the weather.

Da Wedda

We’re looking at a gray fall day in Central Pennsylvania with a high of 57 and a 40% rain possibility. Not too windy. Autumn leaves drifting by my window.

Da Bottom LIne

Time for the feature you have been waiting for — the Officially Turkey Poop prediction, a real piece of crap extruded from the cloaca of this foul old fowl himself. The gamblers are oblivious to the Penn State injury/backup situation, currently favoring the Nittany Lions by 23½, with an over/under of 45½. That works out to a break-even 34-12 PSU win. In view of the backup QB situation as it is and the dreadful state of the running game, which is replete with injured backs, it is a mystery to me how the spread has widened since it opened at 23.

Illinois will be running the football; Penn State will be running the football. The FFI have had some rushing success this year, and they will take advantage of the loss of P.J. Mustipher at the heart of the PSU defense. I don’t see much scoring, at least until the defenses wear down. All I know is the spread is way too wide. I don’t give a crap if you all think the FFI are the worst team in the conference. We’ll see if the late money takes Illinois and the points. That’s where I’m going. Penn State won’t cover. Penn State 20, Illinois 17. Take the under.