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Curtain Up! Light the Lights!

Posted on December 26, 2022 Written by The Nittany Turkey

Everything’s coming up roses for the Lions and the Utes. Shout it out, Ethel Merman!

We’re going to the Rose Bowl! Yay! Can you sense my sarcasmagorical tone? Long ago and far away, before the alphabet soup of CFP, NIL, and NFL, the Rose Bowl was the big prize for successful conduct of a Big Ten and Pac-8 season. Now, it is a consolation game for those second-rate teams that can’t pass playoff muster.

All the Statistics You Could Ever Want

Speaking of alphabet soup, PSU (10-2), is ranked #11 by the CFP, #9 by the AP, and #7 by the AFCA, while Utah (10-3) is ranked #8, #7, and #10, respectively, by those same letters. That’s an average of #9 for Penn State and #8.33 for Utah. Since this post will largely focus on meaningless statistics, this is our first data point. Utah is #0.67 better than Penn State. But let’s look at other statistical measures!

Scoring Offense vs Scoring Defense

Utah ranks #8 in scoring offense; Penn State is tied for #9 in scoring defense. That alone is a worthless statistic as it doesn’t take into account the category “Performance Against Teams That Suck (TTS)”. So, let us look at the schedules to see what we can glean.

Penn State has ten victories over Teams That Suck. Their only two losses were against Teams That Do Not Suck (TTDNS). Meanwhile, although Utah also had two losses to TTDNS, they beat USC, a TTDNS, not just once, but twice. However, they lost the opener to the Gators, unfortunately a TTS. So, let’s give Utah a 71.67 Performance Against Teams That Suck rating and Penn State a 67.09.

Turkey’s Conjecture

Proof of my arcane mathematics might require an additional post. Unfortunately, it is too long and complex to describe here, so I’ll spare you the mathematical esoterica. Suffice to say that Fermat never provided proof of his famous last theorem, either. He famously stated that it was too lengthy to be written in the margins of his originally published work in 1670. Thus, by my convoluted logic, I am an equally great mathematician. Verily, if I don’t divulge my proof, it could be 350 years before someone finally figures it out!

To wrap up this category, Utah scored an average of 34.75 points against TTDS while allowing 32, whereas for Penn State, the TTDS totals were 24 for and 42.5 against. That makes Utah better by 21.25 TTDS points. So, divide that by the PATTS differential of 4.58, and you get 4.64 adjusted raw PATTS advantage factor. Now, we’re getting somewhere!

Third-Down Conversions

This is an area where Penn State fans might be surprised. Utah ranks #8, completing very nearly half of their attempts. Penn State? Good ol’ #93 completes 36.5% of its third-down tries. Big surprise? I lied to you. You knew PSU sucked in this category.

Passing Offense vs Passing Yards Allowed

Penn State was great, right? Vaunted secondary? Right? Well, the Nittany Lions finished the season ranked #47 in passing yards allowed. Utah ranked #45 in passing offense. You see, they’re not a typical, pass-happy Pac-12 team. But Penn State will be missing Joey Porter, Jr., in the secondary for the Rose Bowl because Joey saving himself for the NFL. So, we’ll give a slight advantage to the Utes here, like 1.723 TNT points (which have not yet been defined and probably never will).

Fewest Penalties

Utah is tied for #20. Penn State is at #36. They’re mellower out there in Utah with all those Mormons running around with multiple wives. They must be. Utah hereby awarded .069 TNT points.

Turnover Margin

This is where Penn State shines, and would have shone better were it not for late season screwups. Penn State ranks along with App State, Buffalo, and Tennessee at #14 with a +9. Utah is at #21 with a +8. Based on the number of games played, this shoves 0.12 TNT points back over to PSU’s side of the scale of football justice.

Defense Rules

In Total Defense, the Nittany Lions are #15, while the Utes are #19; in Tackles for Loss, Penn State ranks #7 vs #41 for Utah, while Penn State is at #22 in Tackles for Loss Allowed and Utah is #4. In sacks, PSU is #9 and Utah #16; sacks allowed, PSU #34, Utah #6. Utah has a decent offensive line and a QB who can evade tacklers. That’s all I have to say here.

Offense vs Defense

Passing

As we mentioned beforewise, Utah ranks #45 with an average of 252.5 passing yards per game. Penn State is slightly suckier, ranked #48, with 250.3 ypg. Utah ranks #57, allowing 218.3 yards per game, while Penn State at #47 allows 212.8 yards per game.

Rushing

Rushingwise, Utah, as I mentioned before, breaks the mold of pass-happy Pac-12 teams, ranking #10 in rushing, with an average of 220.2 yards per game. Penn State, surprisingly, given all the hoopla about Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, is down at #43 with 182.1. That’s lower than Notre Dame, ferchrissakes! But Penn State’s rushing defense allows fewer yards than Utah’s, 105.1 vs. 107.0, ranking them at #14 and #16, respectively.

TNT Points Summation

Utah 43692.12, PSU 43420.0.

Last Outings

It was a long time ago when Penn State beat Moo U. in its season ender. I’ll remind you that in that Senior Day game, Sean Clifford’s final regular season game of his sparkling 18-year career at PSU, the Nittany Lions prevailed 35-16. In that game, Clifford threw four TD passes, and was 19-24 for 202 yards.

Utah QB Cameron Rising

As for the other guys, I was impressed by Utah’s performance in the Pac-12 championship against USC, where the Utes dashed the playoff hopes of the Ribbed Trojans with Reservoir Tip, 47-24. Junior quarterback Cameron Rising, who has that certain male porn star look to match his porn star name, was 22-34 for 310 yards and three TDs against the Prophylactics. His offensive line was excellent, too. The running game was no slouch, either, with leading rusher, freshman Ja’Quinden Jackson jacking up 105 yards on 13 carries, including busting a big one for 53 yards. He scored two rushing touchdowns.

The Utes dominated the Condoms throughout. In a doomacious harbinger, USC was absolutely putrid at third-down conversions, at 1-12, and they were able to muster only 56 rushing yards. The Rubbers managed only 2.1 yards per rush. The Utes’ defense also forced a fumble and an interception. Yeah, that swarming defense of the Utes will be a problem for Penn State, as will its competent offensive line.

Intangibles

The Utes were in the Rose Bowl last year, edged by tOSU 48-45, while the Nittany Lions… well, we don’t want to talk about how the Lions got hogtied. What we will talk about instead is Penn State Head Coach James Franklin’s shitty record against top ten teams. You know it as well as I do. Furthermore, his bowl game record is mediocre. So, Franklin, prove to us that you can do it! Surprise us all! We’re not going to accept anything less than a victory in Pasadena.

Da Wedda

Bit of a cool weather period for Pasadena, with high of 55 and low of 48 forecast. Cloudy, with a 25% possibility of some kind of precipitation. So, if they’re going out there for sunshine and warmth, they ain’t getting it, and the Tournament of Roses Parade might need to deal with a wet blanket. Hell, it’ll be only nine degrees warmer in Pasadena than it will be in State College. The unSoCal weather will neither benefit nor hamper either team. No excuses, pal.

Da Bottom Line

Let’s wrap up this convoluted ball of facetious statistics and out-of-the-ass ASS-essments. You know, man, this is hard to write. Not only is it the final Official Turkey Poop Prognostication for the season, but also it is one that accepts the sobering reality of this team’s modest accomplishments. Despite the 10-2 record, all wins were over TTS and the Sanguinarian® whining about not being in the top ten is merely obligatory background noise. Like dem big crocs, dey are in de Nile. If your team sucks, make up for it by blaming it on the officials, the CFP, the sports writers, and whoever — externalizing like a child with no logical defenses.

Yep, crying “Underranked!” is annoyingly oblivious. If anything, based on my PATDNS rating, the Lions are overranked. While it would be ignorantly blissful to be one of those Sanguinarians® navigating bowl season with blinders on while crying “foul!” over the CFP ranking Penn State out of the top ten, we must boil out the emotion here and replace it with cynical assessment, to wit: Clifford should have quit while he was ahead, exiting in a blaze of glory against Moo U., because surely his curtain call will be disappointing.

I am The Nittany Turkey. If I say it, it must be true.

Las Vegas at this point favors Utah by 2.5 points, with an over/under of 52.5. That works out to a 28-25 victory for the Utes. Now, throw that out the window because, as you know, TNT points rule. That, and our unquantifiable intangibles described above, to be sure. Utah 37, Penn State 24. Take the over.


I’ll be back after THE ROSE BOWL, damnit, for a recap of the game and some auld lang syne. In the meanwhile, I’ll drink a cup of kindness, yet, and wish you all a very Happy New Year 2023!

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Filed Under: Penn State Football

Season Finale

Posted on November 27, 2022 Written by The Nittany Turkey

Penn State 35, Moo U. 16

Generational quarterback Sean Clifford went out in a Senior Day blaze of glory, leading the Nittany Lions to a halfway decent 35-16 victory over Michigan State. Penn State finishes the season with ten wins, which won’t be good enough to make the playoffs, where they would get killed anyway. However, they will undoubtedly land a decent bowl game. Meanwhile, owing to this loss, Moo U. will spend the holiday season at home with their families.

Clifford was 19-24 for 202 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. He added seven carries for a net zero yards but his long run of eleven yards got us a first down. Keandre Lambert-Smith also threw for a 48 yard touchdown to pad the passing numbers. Lambert-Smith was also the leading receiver with 83 yards on five receptions, producing one touchdown on the receiving end.

The active Moo U. defense gave our much maligned offensive line lots of trouble, recording eight TFLs, three sacks, and four hurries. All this with seven members of the squad suspended and under indictment.

Big Al gets a shout-out for his game prediction, which missed the mark by only one point. This Turkey’s pie-in-the-sky predicted blowout never was in the cards, not even on this perfect football day in Central Pennsylvania.

The Land Grant Trophy is Ours for a Year

And P.J. Mustipher was seen carrying the 76-pound behemoth after the game. It is my hope that he will find a sheet big enough to drape over the grotesque beast so no one will be offended by it for the next year.

Other Action with CFP Implications

As meaningful as this game was to us, more important crap was happening elsewhere in college football, crap with playoff implications. #3 Michigan bitch-slapped #2 Ohio State and will play Purdue for the Big Ten Championship next Saturday. (Ya nevah know — anything can happen). #4 TCU easily handled Iowa State. #5 LSU was taken aback by their loss to 5-7 Texas A&M, as was #8 Clemson at the behest of South Carolina (which has beaten two top 10 teams in two weeks). #9 Oregon lost to Oregon State in the Civil War. #1 Georgia, #6 USC, #7 Alabama, and #10 Tennessee all won.

Surely, Penn State, currently #11, will get sucked up into the vacuum created by the luuuuuuuuusahs downward spiral, placing the Nittany Lions in the Top Ten, for what it’s worth. OK, so it’s arguably worth nothing, because they won’t be in the playoffs and they would be destined for a decent bowl game even if they were on the outside looking in with ten wins and a liberally spending fanbase who “travel well”.

Here’s a mythical Top Ten, straight out of my geriatric avian cloaca:

  1. Georgia (12-0)
  2. Michigan (12-0)
  3. TCU (12-0)
  4. USC (11-1)
  5. OSU (11-1)
  6. Alabama (10-2)
  7. Tennessee (10-2)
  8. Penn State (10-2)
  9. Washington (10-2, assuming they win tonight)
  10. Clemson (10-2)

One more game…

Georgia must still play LSU for the SEC championship; Clemson must play North Carolina for the ACC; and TCU will play Kansas State for the Big Twelve. As I mentioned, Michigan will play Purdue for the Big Ten. The Pac-12, now that’s a little more interesting. USC will play either Oregon (if Washington State wins the Apple Cup later tonight) or Utah, if the Huskies win.

Where’s It Going?

Folks, this could get interesting. Imagine the possibilities! Given all the unexpected losses we’ve seen in the past couple of weeks, it is good that Penn State, OSU, Alabama, and Tennessee are sitting on their collective keisters next week watching the carnage. If you don’t play, you can’t lose. Soooooo, have you dusted off the old abacus to determine how Penn State can still make it into the playoffs, you simple-minded Sanguinarian?

Start with the somewhat unlikely event that Georgia gets knocked off by LSU, then Michigan loses to Purdue, and TCU bows to K-State. Better make sure USC loses, too. That COULD have the effect of sucking OSU, Alabama, Tennessee, and Penn State into the playoffs, couldn’t it? Maybe? Yeah, right. Dream on!

Who, then, already? You’re boring me!

TCU would still have but one loss, so in the stupid scenario described above, they and Michigan would both be 12-1, while USC would be 11-2 and the other, non-playing wannabes are all 10-2. There would be room for just two wannabes, and this Turkey feels that the chosen ones would be either OSU and USC or Alabama and USC. Why not OSU and Alabama? Damned if I know. I’m making this shit up as I go along. And Georgia. Yeah, they would need to be there. Shit!

As I write this, Washington State leads Washington 24-21 in the second quarter of a real barn-burner, for what that’s worth. Lotta football to be played there, yet, still.

Anyway, I’ll shut up now because my predictions always suck and besides, I’m getting bored with this premature postseason speculation. So, I’ll leave it to you scenario-writers for now. I’m happy that Penn State finished the regular season 10-2, but what does it mean when they haven’t beaten a single Top 25 team?


I’ll be back sometime after next weekend’s frivolity. At least I hope so. I’m scheduled for a colonoscopy on Friday, so you never know.

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Filed Under: Penn State Football

The Most Beautiful Trophy

Posted on November 23, 2022 Written by The Nittany Turkey

Franklin Said It, So It Must Be True

Land Grant Trophy
Land Grant Trophy, which is unfortunately awarded to the winner of the annual Michigan State vs. Penn State football game.

Dripping with sarcasm, Nittany Lions Head Coach James Franklin addressed the assembled media wonks yesterday. “This week with Michigan State and Coach [Mel] Tucker, who I’ve known for a long time and got a lot of respect for, obviously going to be a challenge coming into our place playing for maybe the most beautiful trophy in all of college football. If you guys haven’t seen it or anybody listening to this hasn’t seen it, look it up. The Land Grant Trophy is just a sight to be seen. It’s just beautiful.”

I’ve written about it before — many times — so, I won’t bore you with further bitching and moaning about it. Clearly, Franklin shares the opinion of about 99% of the college football community, but is too polite to decry the abomination it is before a public assemblage. His biting ironies will suffice for now. To sum up my feelings, this agglomeration of disparate, ugly, heterogeneous Dollar Store elements should be awarded to the loser, not the winner, of the annual Penn State vs. Michigan State game.

(And if I were the head buyer for Dollar Store, I’d quickly fire the clown who bought the crap pictured here!).

Big Day in College Football

All that having been said, #11 (still) Penn State (9-2, 6-2 Big Ten) hosts Michigan State (5-6, 3-5 B10) on Senior Day in St. Joe Memorial Stadium at Beaver Field on Saturday at 4 PM, nicely sandwiched between the noon starts and 7-8 PM games. In the former category, we have the big game of the day for Big Ten and CFP watchers: the battle of undefeateds, #3 Michigan at #2 Ohio State. Later games of interest to playoff watchers will be #5 LSU at Texas A&M and #15 Notre Dame at #6 USC. In our time slot, the only viewers who care about Auburn at #7 Alabama live in the State of Alabama.

The Spartans are playing this game for more than pride. A win makes them bowl eligible. Meanwhile, the #11 Nittany Lions would like to wind up in a New Year’s Day Bowl*, and a win could seal that deal.

A Rich History

Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany, who retired a couple of years ago, contrived this rivalry when Penn State joined the league in 1993. It was never really a rivalry before it was manufactured by Delany, whose flimsy justification was that both institutions were original land grant schools. Since then, the Nittany Lions lead the series 15-10. However, back in those good old days that few of you remember, the land grant school we have nicknamed “Moo U.” would regularly beat the crap out of the Kitties. The only PSU win from 1914 to 1966 happened in October 1925, when the 20s were roaring and the stock market was soaring. Later, during my mid-century time at University Park in the Rip Engle days, Duffy Daugherty was the head coach of the Spartans, and Big Bubba Smith was a holy terror. Penn State lost at home 23-0 in 1965 and in 42-8 in East Lansing in 1966.

That Was Then and This Is Now

In the modern series, this game is often replete with surprises. Typically the last game of the regular season, emotions and the weather play a part in who might come out on top. Regrettably, the game was not scheduled in 2011, 2012, and 2013 because Delany was busy playing “Leaders and Legends.” If you don’t remember that, it’s like the damn Land Grant Trophy — I bitched about it at length back then, so I’ll let you do your own research. Or you can just let it be, because it suuuuuuuuucked.

Who Gon’ Win Dat Thang?

Last year, the Nittany Lions let the Spartans snatch away that trophy, winning 30-27 on their home turf. They will bring the trophyto Beaver Stadium with them on Saturday. One must hope it will be covered by an opaque drape of some kind. The aesthetically challenged prize will then adorn the trophy case of the lucky winner for a year going forward, with the year and the score engraved on one of the plethora of plates using a Boy Scout knife. (Whoever wins should keep the drape to avert psychological trauma to small children who might view the trophy case).

OK, I’ll quit bitching about the trophy. I promised. I lied.

Michigan State has some standout players, including a punter who leads the nation in punt average, and a decent defense at times, although they average 25.4 points per game on offense and allow 26.7 on defense. That typically makes for lots of punts, so it’s good they have some competence at that position.

Last Outings

You know that PSU beat Rutgers 55-10, and, as Franklin confirmed, they need to work on third down productivity, ball security, and I’ll add punting to the deficits to be remedied. Also, the offensive line did allow some sacks, which will probably continue this week because Moo U. has some decent defenders, albeit potentially with criminal records. But I digress.

Last week, the Spartacans lost a highly entertaining double-overtime game to our friends, the Hoosiers, 39-31. Although they racked up 540 total yards, 29 first downs, and dominated time of possession, they could not close out the game. Five penalties had something to do with it although Indiana has seven. Another turning point occurred in the fourth quarter in the form of a pick-six when Moo was winning 31-14. The blunder let Indiana get back into the game, making it 31-22. Another losing move was a 22-yard field goal missed by senior place kicker Ben Patton with the score tied at 31 and two seconds on the clock in regulation time. Patton had another kick blocked in overtime, leading to the Spartans’ loss.

Thugs on Trial

As you know, a large portion of Machine Gun State will be sitting out this game awaiting trial for their prison-style stomping of a Michigan defensive back after the October 29 Michigan vs. Moo U. game. County prosecutors have filed criminal charges against at least seven Michigan State defensive players. This crap has no place in college football. The assholes should be thrown off the team and the University should not interfere with their trial. (Having worked for a University for many years, I know that this shit happens). Those thugs need to do their time and embark on their forthcoming criminal careers instead of polluting the college football milieu.

Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh said it well: “I’m coming from this from a perspective of being a parent. These young men are entrusted to me by their families and to our program, and we have the responsibility to each player to treat them like our own, and I take that responsibility very seriously. An apology will not get the job done in this instance. There should be serious consequences for the many individuals that are culpable.”

With this in mind, the PSU cops need too bring riot gear and should shackle any assholes in green who appear ready to start trouble.

Da Wedda

Late November is always a joy in Central Pennsylvania. However, Saturday looks to be “not too bad”. About 70% cloud cover with a high of 50 and a low of 39 won’t freeze anyone’s buns too much. The wind is expected to be a little brisk, but again, “not too bad.”

Da Bottom Line

The last regular season game should bring an outpouring of emotion, lamenting that this will be the last Official Turkey Poop Prognostication you’re likely to see until the bowl game preview. That’s like a month away. I’m touched by this imagined adulation, living in my geriatric fantasy world, so let me give you my best effort this week.

The crooked noses and their customers have this one currently at a spread of 18.5 points in favor of Dear Old State (the blue and white one, that is). The over/under is 53. So, if you’re adept at 8th grade algebra (which isn’t taught until the sophomore year in college these days), you’ll quickly see that the gamblers are looking at a break-even score of roughly 36-17. But I think Manny Diaz’s defense is rounding into form. I kinda like the number 17 for an upper bound on Moo U’s output, even though the Spartans will be fighting hard for bowl eligibility. And I’m thinking that this being Senior Day, Franklin will want to get the seniors who haven’t seen much playing time into the game for their final hurrah in front of the appreciative home crowd. Plus, PSU will be missing top receiver Parker Washington, who is out for the season. However, I changed my mind since I originally wrote this. Let’s have a look at some young receivers against the depleted Moo U. defense. I’m going for the season-ending blowout here. Penn State 63, Moo U. 17. I’m taking the over.

Regarding the forthcoming trials for

As for the assholes: Jacoby Windmon, Brandon Wright, Justin White, Malcolm Jones, Tank Brown, Angelo Grose, Zion Young, and Khary Crump — also known as the Eight Dumbasses — I’ll set the over/under on total time to be served as 180 days.


*Note that the nominal “New Year’s Day” game this year is likely to mean New Years Day Plus One (i.e., January 2, 2023). Sunday, New Year’s Day is a big day for the NFL, so to optimize TV revenues, we move the college games to Monday, which is the recognized fuck off from work holiday. Two semi-major bowl games are played on January 2: The ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa (known to most of you as the Outback Bowl), and the Citrus Bowl in Orlando (known to some of you as the Capital One Bowl, but long known as the Citrus Bowl here in Central Florida). Penn State is an odds-on favorite to be invited to the latter, should they happen to take care of business on Saturday. (And no, Sanguinarians®, there is absolutely no chance in hell that the Nittany Lions will be selected as one of the four CFP teams).

I’ll be back after the game to give you a recap and to bitch some more about that damn trophy. In the meanwhile, I’m laying low because you know what time of year it is and you know what that means for turkeys. My brethren have set their price 20% higher this year, hoping to price themselves out of the running for the abattoir’s axe. Hard times for Turkeys and those who eat them. Nevertheless, I wish all six of my readers a very Happy Thanksgiving!

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