Da Big House’s Latest “Game of the Century”

The Big House: that’s what state and federal prisons were referred to in old gangster movies, back in the days when gangsters wore suits, not droopy shorts exposing their boxer-clad asses. Focus, Turkey! We ain’t talking about getting sent up da river (that one referred to going to the New York State Penitentiary at Ossining, better known as Sing-Sing). Nay, mateys, we’re talking about Michigan Stadium at Ann Arbor, 50 miles from yet another gangsta capital.

That’s what the entire football world will be watching this weekend, as #5 Michigan hosts mighty #10 Penn State, in a battle of Big Ten East unbeatens. After this weekend there will be only two unbeaten so-called schools, better known as semi-pro teams loosely affiliated with universities, in the division. #2 Ohio State has a bye, so the only thing that will be beaten there is “the meat”. I don’t want to keep you in suspense, so I’ll hit you with it right at the top: Michigan will remain unbeaten after this week.

Lead with Your Chin

Sure, the Sanguinarians® are clinging to their hopes for a perfect Penn State season, as they have done since 1995 to no avail. For the past twenty-eight years, the bubble has always burst for them; sometimes early, sometimes tormentingly late. Last year and this year will be similar for the Nittany Lions. Last year, the Lions went into the Iowa game undefeated and ranked #4 to Iowa’s #3. Penn State lost and started a downward slide that saw them lose five of the remaining seven games. This year? Well, I think after losing to Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio State, they’ll fare a little better. Perhaps they’ll lose only three games after Michigan, finishing 8-4. But I’m getting ahead of myself here.

Yes, I know, Sanguinarians (Sangs, for short)! The games are yet to be played and anything can happen.

Anything WILL happen. It’s just that you probably won’t like what “anything” is, Sangs.

Who’s Da Man

While arguably the only coach crappier than Franklin against the spread is Harbaugh (I’m shooting out of my ass here — haven’t so much as looked that up), I think the Wolverines have the type of team that will beat Penn State to submission in the fourth quarter, if not before. Their punishing running game is at the core of their offense, with Blake Corum having gained 735 yards on 118 attempts thus far through six games. They’ve scored an average of 43 points per game and they’re at 45% third-down efficiency. They average 212 rushing yards and 246 passing yards per game. And they’ve given up only 11.3 points per game.

On the other hand, Penn State’s stingy defense could have something to say about that. They’ve given up only 79.8 yards rushing per game, slightly better than Michigan’s 81.7. Despite the vaunted Penn State secondary, they’ve allowed 262 passing yards per game. And third-down efficiency is a putrid 33.85%.

Yeah, But Who They Played?

Good point. Penn State hasn’t faced anyone yet who can run the ball. You could say Auburn, but I’d say, “Against who has Auburn’s offense been effective this year?” Answer: Nobody. As for Michigan, throwing out the first two games against Hawaii and Connecticut, I would say they have faced a tougher schedule.

Last Outings

Both forgettable. PSU coughed up the ball innumerable times against Big Ten West bottom-dweller Northwestern while winning unconvincingly, 17-7, while Michigan struggled at first with Big Ten East bottom-dweller Indiana before coasting to a 31-10 victory. I guess one could make the excuse for Penn State that the remnants of Hurricane Ian caused the rampant fumbleitis, but there’s no good excuse for that sort of sloppy ball handling.

Da Wedda

Being a nooner, it probably won’t be as warm as the predicted high of 58 on the forecasted partly cloudy day. Interestingly, from a Jake Pinegar standpoint, the steady WSW winds of 13 mph with gusts to 25 should guarantee a couple of missed field goals.

_{(Feel better now?)}

Da Bottom Line

I tell jou songseen… this one is very clear in my mind. The Sanguinarian euphoria ends here. The Official Nittany Turkey Poop Forecast is nigh. Cover your eyes, laddies, for it won’t be pretty.

Michigan is favored by a touchdown, with an over/under of 52, suggesting a Michigan win of 29-22. I think the Penn State defense will wear down under the relentless Corum running attack, enabling J.J. McCarthy to pick apart the vaunted PSU secondary as the game wears on. Lots of errant passes by our boy Sean Clifford will seal the deal, as the PSU offense sputters. And, as I mentioned before, Jake Pinegar will miss at least a field goal or two, if not an extra point. I’m going for Michigan 34, Penn State 17. Take the under, barely.

I’ll be back after the game with some grousing and some more irreverent bullshit, straight from the Turkey’s cloaca.

Penn State 17, Northwestern 7

Penn State looked more like a pretender than a contender on sloppy Saturday in St. Joe Memorial Stadium at Beaver Field. Nominally Number Eleven, the Nittany Lions played like a middle-of-the-pack Yankee Conference team, making their horrible, 1-3 opponents look like a real football team. To say they have work to do, as James Franklin intoned in his postgame conference, is like saying that Liz Taylor had a few husbands.

Wait, I need another cup of coffee. I’ll be right back.

First, because I’m practicing avoidance, not wanting to write about that piece of shit we saw yesterday, I’ll say that I couldn’t care less whether Aaron Judge hits sixty-two home runs. I’m happy for the current generation if he does because every generation needs its heroes, but I personally gave up on Major League Baseball around the time of the 1992 strike. My generation had its home run heroes — I’ll cling to my memories of the 1961 baseball season when Roger Maris hit sixty-one and Mickey Mantle hit fifty-four. Asterisk notwithstanding, it was an amazing year.

That having been said, what pisses me off (as it did Sean McDonough, himself an ESPN employee) is the blatant pandering of the cut-overs to the Yankees playing an insignificant game with the Orioles just so ESPN could say that they showed us all a dubious moment of history. I guess we should be thankful for the respite from hearing about the crap going on in Beaver Stadium. But I digress…

Rain, Rain, Go Away

Yes, the remnants of Hurricane Ian inundated State College at precisely the time our game was scheduled. You couldn’t have gotten better timing if you were Princess Nee-Tah-Nee doing a rain dance on the summit of the mountain that was named for her. Any rainmaking on the field turned out to be Lion piss, and a weak stream at that. However, after the game, Franklin refused to use the rain as an excuse for his team’s piss-poor performance.

I’m talking about the offense because the defense was present and committed. On the other side of the ball, however, turnovers, penalties, and errant passes were the rule, rather than the exception. Not that the defense gets off the hook completely — they gave up at least two first downs on needless penalties. Regardless of the rain, Penn State should have been salting this one away by the end of the second quarter, but Northwestern was never out of it.

Internal Issues in da Backfield?

Kaytron Allen missed the first half due to an undisclosed attitude adjustment. Devyn Ford left the team due to wanting to concentrate on the academic side, a good thing because he wasn’t getting much playing time and deciding to be a real student again is much better than dicking with the abominable transfer portal. Kudos to Mr. Ford!

On-field performance (or lack of same) led to star running back Nick Singleton being benched twice during the game due to his poor ball retention skills. I’ll say it again: this isn’t Governor Mifflin High School. No matter what else one can say about Northwestern, Pat Fitzgerald coaches his defensive players well. Protect the ball — or else!

Meanwhile, there is a sad undercurrent at Beaver Stadium with a growing number of boos over Sean Clifford’s performance. The natives are restless, and we’re getting sick and tired of all the unforced errors, rain or no rain. Heap Big Freshman Drew Allar out of Medina, Ohio, is the “next big thing”, but he has received little playing time to date — none in this game. So, Franklin will surely go with Clifford for the Michigan game, which will be the start of the 2022 Big Slide.

Turnover Battle

Disgraceful! Penn State had been up toward the top of the FBS in positive turnover ratio, but no more. Even turnover-prone Northwestern’s performance was eclipsed by the incompetent Nittany Lions, who committed five turnovers against the Wildcats’ three. Four fucking fumbles lost and an interception. Disgusting!

Penalty Battle

There again, Northwestern performed much better than their superior hosts, with only two penalties for ten yards. PSU had 7-55, including that horrible first-down-producing, fourth-down offsides to which I previously alluded.

But Then, Even the Defense let up…

Northwestern had been well contained, but in the second half the Wildcats were able to move the ball much better. The stats don’t look as bad as they should have. At one point early on, Penn State had twelve first downs to NU’s four. That gap narrowed as the slopfest proceeded, ending up with twenty-one for PSU and twelve for Northwestern.

Running Game Present

Yes, 220 yards on the ground, split up among Singleton (87), Allen (86), and Lee (40). Alas, many of those runs were on dead-end streets, terminating in fumbles. Geez!

Passing Game Not

Sean Clifford had only ten completions for twenty attempts for 140 yards with one TD and one INT, for a magnificent quarterback rating of 37.9. Several of his misses were to wide-open receivers. He had plenty of protection. Can’t use the rain as an excuse. They were out there and he had the time.

And Scraping the Bottom on Third Down

Four for fifteen on third down — with the “meat” of the schedule just ahead. I’m retching here.

Mi Amor

Big shout-out to Barney Amor, whose punting was superb, with four inside the twenty yard-line, which allowed James Franklin to lay claim to the singular “battle” Penn State won: the Field Position Battle.

Work to Do

To say that this Penn State offense has work to do is the Understatement of the Century. The Nittany Lions could move into the Top Ten this week, given that #7 Kentucky lost to Ole Miss; however, they obviously did not resemble contenders yesterday. Lots of hype will surround the forthcoming Battle of #4 and #10 (possibly). Will PSU rise to the occasion?

Next week is a bye. Then, as we noted above, the Lions go to Michigan. The following two weeks will be Minnesota and Ohio State. If they cannot even deal with fundamentals, they’ll be 5-3 in a month.

I’ll be back sometime before the big game with the #4 Maize and Blue.

Northwestern (1-3, 1-0 Big Ten) vs. #11 Penn State (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten)

James Franklin predicts rain for the game, and the Big Ten West co-Leading Wildcats are purple, hence the title, if you must know how this birdbrain thinks. I’ve survived our latest hurricane here in Central Florida’s turkey coop, so I can spew some nonsense here about Saturday’s premier Big Ten matchup, scheduled for 3:30 pm ET.

Given the predicted rain provided by the remnants of Hurricane Ian, by game time just a rainmaker, it is no wonder that tickets are available for $30. Expect a half-full Beaver Stadium, despite a projected reported attendance of 109,000.

I’m distracted by hurricane aftermath issues, so I won’t take too much of your time here.

Last Outings

You know what happened to Penn State. After a good first quarter, we experienced a laps, but then pulled ahead to win 33-14 against a plucky passel of Central Michigan Chippewas. Now, the Wildcats, after firing Scott Frost in their home opener by edging Little Red 31-28, went on a downhill slide, losing to Duke, Southern Illinois, and Miami (Ohio). With one conference win, they share the lead in the Big Ten West with Minnesota and Iowa.

The MAC RedHawks won the last game with a last-minute field goal, 17-14, after kicker Graham Nicholson had one previous attempt block and one other bonked off the upright. Northwestern gained 364 total yards, of which 257 were aerial. However, they lost the “turnover battle” coughing up two fumbles. One of those fumbles was on the failed final drive that led to Miami’s winning field goal.

Junior quarterback Ryan Hilinski, who is not the capital of Finland, was 26-44 with no TDs and no INTs. His best all-purpose weapon is fellow Junior running back Evan Hull, who leads the FBS with 170 all-purpose yards per game. Although he had an off day receiving against Miami, he is the team’s leading receiver.

Da Wedda

As I previously stated, the forecast is for “Tropical Rain”, according to AccuWeather. Pennsylvania people don’t have any concept of tropical rain unless they’ve been to the tropics. AccuWeather must be among them, as it forecasts 0.38″ of precipitation for State College, which is piddling compared to the 20″ we received here over the past 18 hours. They’re calling for 4.5 hours of rain, with 96% cloud cover. So, it’ll be a shitty, rainy day, with a high of 60 and wind gusts to 12 mph, which could affect the “interesting” kicking game on both sides of the ball.

Da Bottom Line

The Official (and mostly worthless) Turkey Poop Projection this week follows another failure. I had predicted a rout in the CMU game with Penn State covering the spread, which wasn’t the way it played out. (I should have stuck with the maxim: You can never go broke playing the spread against Penn State. CMU plus 28 points would have been a winner, winner, chicken dinner. In the past 10 games, playing the spread against Penn State would have won six times).

But whence this purple rain game? According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Northwestern has a 3.1% chance of winning the slopfest. PSU favored by 25.5 with an over/under of 51 implies a PSU victory by something like 38-13. To win this one, they must play for four quarters. I think they’ll be concentrating on the running game if conditions are as bad as Chief Meteorologist James Franklin predicts. To arrive at 38 points involves kicking a field goal, so I’m not going there. Containing Hull will be the key for Penn State and Northwestern isn’t as bad as its record suggests. Nevertheless, I’ll go with Penn State to win 34-13. They don’t cover the spread, and given the projected weather, I’d take the under.

(I’ll be back after the game if residual flooding hasn’t washed me away).