The Nittany Turkey

Primarily about Penn State football, this is a tale told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

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The Heart Attack Kids

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#3 Penn State 28, Wisconsin 13

These Nittany Lions have transformed shitty first halves into a fine art of deception, finding ways to win games in the second half with stout defense paving the way. Whether they deserve a #3 ranking is arguable and will be moot after next week, which figures to be the toughest game of the season, against The Ohio State University. Our Penn State fanboys, known here as The Sanguinarians, are already planning their playoff excursions, thinking past next week’s game, but I digress.

Injuries made this game more interesting than it already would have been. When Drew Allar limped off the field after a twisting, knee hyperextending sack late in the second quarter with Wisconsin sporting a 10-7 lead, big question marks popped up. Beau Pribula, although experienced, had never been in this position before. He was up to the challenge and with the help of the defense, won it for the Lions with a strong second half performance.

After the first half, I was concerned that the Badgers’ big offensive line would wear down the PSU defense, but the opposite was the case. The stalwart Penn State defense held Wisconsin to three points, while scoring seven themselves on a Jaylen Reed interception of Braedyn Locke to get the Lions back on top for good 14-13. The Nittany Lions have outscored opponents 66-6 in third quarters of games this year.

Next Week: The Time Has Come

Next week, the #4 Ohio State Buckeyes will provide Penn State’s stiffest challenge of the year. The quality of competition momentarily increases. Just because the Buckeyes sleepwalked through the Nebraska game today does not make them any less formidable. They’re not invincible, but their only loss was to #1 Oregon. Penn State, although undefeated, has played no one in the Top Ten. Whether its signature victory was Bowling Green, Illinois, or USC, or ‘none of the above’, the fact remains that they are untested against withering, Top Ten opposition.

The Nittany Lions are likely to preserve their #3 ranking, and Ohio State will probably still be #4. This sets up the 374th Game of the Century between #3 and #4 at High Noon on November 2. The hype will be flying like the Blue Angels, ladies and gentlemen.

So, “we’ll see!”.

I’ll be back mid-week with a look at The Ohio State Schmuckeyes.

Badger Badger Badger

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#3 Penn State (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) vs. Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1)

High expectations abound for the #3-ranked Nittany Lions as they tromp into Camp Randall Stadium for a prime-time matchup with the Wisconsin Badgers. Like all the other games leading up to this, because of Penn State’s easy schedule, this game will tell us a lot. Or not.

Thing is, the Lions backed into a #3 ranking with what? Where are the signature wins over Top 25 teams? The best win they can claim is 21-7 against Illinois, now ranked #20. Penn State’s last outing was a struggle to beat USC, a team with three Big Ten losses including its latest abomination, last week’s 29-28 loss to lowly Maryland. At mid-season, the Nittany Lions do not look like the third best program in the country. I seriously doubt that they could prevail against #4 Ohio State, #5 Texas, #7 Tennessee, or #8 LSU. (I didn’t mention overrated #6 Miami, who have ridden Cam Ward’s Heismanesque shoulders to where they are).

Test or Trap

More cliches. Is this a “test” game or a “trap” game? Let me dismiss the first hack sportswriter characterization–a “test”–by saying that everything is a “test” when you haven’t played anybody! So, let’s look at the “trap” aspects. All I need to say is that next week, Penn State will face #4 tOSU in Beaver Stadium. To use another hack sports commentator convention, November 2 is a “circle this date on your calendar” date, a distracting focus ever since the schedule was decided. If Penn State holds serve against Bucky and tOSU handles Nebraska at home, then the matchup with Brutus will be #3 vs. #4, another overhyped “Game of the Century” (about the twelfth this year). With all that looming distraction, dispatching the unranked Badgers is a foregone conclusion, right? WRONG!

Football Transitivity

Much like the Nittany Lions, the Badgers have beaten no one decent, and in fact, lost to USC back when they were ranked #13. They also lost to Alabama, for which I gave them credit not scheduling all non-conference pussies. We know that football transitivity doesn’t hold, so Penn State’s marginal win over USC does not mean that they’ll prevail over Wisconsin, who lost to the Prophylactics. Lots more factors come into play, not the least of which is the tOSU distraction. To use James Franklin’s tired old cliche, we need to go 1-0 this week and not worry about next week or last week, or Christmas or whatever.

Last Outings

After destroying mighty Rutgers the preceding week, the Badgers took on perennial Big Ten powerhouse Northwestern (3-4, 1-3) in Evanston, winning 23-3. It was a run dominant game, in which Wisconsin ran 43 times for 199 yards, sloppily committing two turnovers to the Wildcats’ one. In the Rutgers game, which they won 42-7, they ran 47 times for 309 yards and committed two turnovers. However, against Purdue’s crappy defense, a 52-6 victory, passing was dominant, as sophomore quarterback Braedyn Locke was 20-31 for 359 yards, with three TDs and two INTs (of course). Locke replaced starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who is out for the season with a torn ACL.

What It Is?

Wisconsin ranks #14 in the FBS in total defense, and #7 in passing yards allowed. It follows that in rushing defense, they are putrid, ranked #61 and allowing an average of 139.9 yards per game. Penn State’s offense showed signs of life against USC, but overall, they are ranked #10 in total offense. Wisconsin’s run defense is a vulnerable spot if the Lions can get the rushing game in gear.

Turnovers have been a problem for the Badgers this year, with a -3 margin. Locke has had five interceptions, while Bucky has lost seven fumbles.

I believe that Penn State is the slightly superior team, and the game may well come down to who coughs it up more.

What to Watch

Ordinarily, a PSU-Wisconsin game would be a boring, grind-it-out affair. Yet, the big difference this year are an improved Drew Allar, the innovative Andy Kotelnicki’s offense, and the performance of the versatile and talented Tyler Warren. So, regardless of the outcome, this year’s offense has emerged as one of the more entertaining products Penn State has put on the field in recent memory. They offer their share of frustration, but the high points are very high. I would rather have big ups and big downs than a flat-line, boring, bland, robotic offense. It makes me yell loudly during games while Jenny and Mike are talking about boring shit like food.

Da Wedda

The forecast for Saturday at Camp Randall is mostly sunny and pleasant, with a high of 66 and a low of 48. Should be in the high 50s for the 7:30 kickoff, and thus, weather will be no factor.

Da Bottom Line

We have arrived at the meaningless game forecast, which I call the Official Turkey Poop Prognostication, that awful offal that comes straight from the cloaca of this foul fowl. Homonyms aside, I would not suggest betting on my from-the-hip analyses and projections.

Penn State is favored by 6.5, with an over/under of 47.5, suggesting a 27-20 win. ESPN’s match-up predictor gives Wisconsin a 30% chance of winning. With two halfway decent defenses on Wisconsin’s home field, I believe it will be closer than the spread, another failure to cover the spread by King James. And thus, I choose over-ranked Penn State to win it by the skin of their teeth. PSU 24, Wisconsin 23. Take the under.

See you after the game, which should deliver some decent prime-time entertainment. I hope my prediction is wrong and the Nittany Lions blow out Bucky in his home burrow. One way or the other, I’ll be back with a heavy dose of opinion and a modicum of fact.

We Got By with a Little Help from Our Friends

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#4 Penn State 33, USC 30

Beautiful day for football in SoCal. Penn State starts slow; a goal-line stand by USC makes me think this will go the usual way. Then they’re suddenly down 14-3; I think “loss”. But our favorite “second-half team” pulled it out in the end, in overtime, with a little help from laissez-faire officiating.

Final score, Penn State 33, USC 30, in overtime. Penn State’s #4 ranking will improve to #3 and live to see another day. PSU has now started two seasons in a row winning six and losing none. Although the second half of the season might yield some comeuppances, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s just savor this victory for a couple weeks.

Do you need anybody? I want somebody to love.

That would be Tyler Warren, whose performance was crucial to this game and to the offense in general this year, had an amazing day, so we’ll forgive him for one significant drop. His seventeen receptions for 224 yards and a touchdown were enough in themselves, but he also ran for four yards and was 1-1 as a passer.

Could it be anybody?

One must acknowledge the fine contribution of Drew Allar, who remained calm and unperturbed throughout despite throwing two ugly interceptions and a third on an up-for-grabs Hail Mary. His passes were more accurate than in recent outings, and although we thought the keys to the game would include lots of rushing, it turned out to be a passing dominated offense. Allar completed 30 of 43 for 391 yards, including the 224 yards gained by Warren. Of Penn State’s 518 yards total offense, only 118 were on the ground.

What would you think if I sang out of tune?

Our kicking game, particularly field goal production, had been out of tune through the first four games, but walk-on kicker Ryan Barker got the job and has been perfect ever since. In the USC game, Penn State’s new starting kicker kicked five field goals and three extra points. All split the uprights down the middle. After the game, in earshot of the microphone, James Franklin embraced Barker and declared his performance, which included the walk-off game winner, as “fucking awesome.”

What do you see when you turn out the light?

I see a need for a more competent defense. Ours allowed some pretty ridiculous chunk plays when they were caught with their pants down. They allowed 409 yards in a balanced effort by USC. Their saving grace was that the Trojans are incompetent in converting third downs, just 2-11 in that category–about on par with Penn State’s 4-13. The stat that stands out is the Prophylactics’ 7.9 yard per rush average.

I get high with a little help from my friends.

Nobody who saw the last few plays of regulation time will dispute the fact that the officials missed a couple of obvious calls. The non-calls went to the advantage of the Nittany Lions. One of them denied Southern Cal the opportunity for a makeable, game-winning field goal.

These are the breaks of the game. Penn State is getting more of them this year, leading me to advance a conspiracy theory. The Big Ten wants Penn State in the CFP playoffs because Penn State fans always spend a lot of money and travel better than, say, Oregon Ducks fans. However, Oregon beat tOSU, so they’re now probably stuck with both those two, which might preclude PSU. Doesn’t make much sense, but neither does partisan grousing about bad calls. They’re part of the game.

Since most of my readers picked USC, these calls are convenient redemption. I picked Penn State, and I was right, so don’t fuck with my bragging rights!

Can it be? Number Three?

Between #2 Ohio State and #3 Oregon, one had to lose. The AP voters have now placed Penn State at #3. Alas, I feel that either the Ducks or the Schmucks would mop up the field with the Nittany Kitties. Plus, the #3 puts a target on Penn State’s back for the Wisconsin game in two weeks.

How do I feel at the end of the day?

The Beatles and Joe Cocker notwithstanding, I feel pretty good about the happenings in the Big Ten. Penn State won. THE Ohio State University went down, always a good thing. Illinois, my wife’s alma mater, now 5-1, prevailed over lowly 1-5 Purdue in an 50-49 overtime shootout. Northwestern, another family favorite, demolished Maryland. Similarly, Iowa demolished Washington, 40-16. The Huskies are our big white-out opponents who suck big time. Our next game is with Wisconsin, who exacted their torturous revenge by spreading scarlet billows in Piscataway, 42-7. On the west coast, Minnesota dispatched UCLA 21-17.

Worthy of mention, #16 Indiana, who did not play, is among the three Big Ten teams with perfect 6-0, 3-0 (Big Ten) records, along with Oregon and Penn State. The Hoosiers minus Tom Allen are the big surprise Big Ten program this year.

Wrapping it all up and tying a bow on it, I’m thrilled that Penn State surmounted a 20-6 deficit and pulled it out in overtime. I will say that a struggling win over USC (3-3, 1-3 Big Ten) is no indication that the Nittany Lions will fare well against Wisconsin, tOSU, and Minnesota. I’m not too worried about Washington, Purdue, and Maryland, but the possibility of what Big Al characterizes as the perennial “WTF game” always looms large with this squad.

But we’ll get by with a little help from our friends!

I’ll be back sometime after the bye week but before the Wisconsin game to offer the sweet lowdown on the Badgers.