The Nittany Turkey

Primarily about Penn State football, this is a tale told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

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Stumbling to Victory

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#9 Penn State 21, #19 Illinois 7

After the Illini scored on their opening drive, the Penn State defense, coupled with errors, omissions, and penalties, shut out the visitors for the rest of the game. Neither team has a kicker who is worth a shit. Illinois missed an easy field goal, while Penn State missed two. The spread closed at PSU – 19.5. Obviously, another non-cover by Franklin’s boys.

Erase one of those missed field goals and pretend that they didn’t incur some stupid penalties, and they would have easily covered the spread. The over/under closed at 48.5, which suggests a final score of 34-14. Mistake-free play by both teams would have realized that outcome. However, the game wasn’t the prettiest for either.

The quarterbacks performed well. Although Luke Altmyer threw his first pick of the year, he also had one touchdown pass. He was 16-25 for 185 yards passing, and was throwing with pinpoint accuracy. Drew Allar was 15-21 for only 135 yards, with no touchdowns or interceptions. His passes were off the mark on several occasions. But it was the Penn State running game that won the game for them.

Kaytron Allen ran the ball eighteen times for 102 yards, while his partner, Nick Singleton, had sixteen carries for 94 yards. The offensive line opened large holes for Allen and Singleton, and in general, they played a competent game, allowing only two sacks for five yards.

Meanwhile, the Penn State defense sacked Altmyer seven times for forty-three yards, and allowed only thirty-four yards rushing. Illinois was forced to play the aerial game, and the Nittany Lions were up to the task of defending against it, when Illinois wasn’t shooting itself in the foot.

This slow start bullshit must now cease. The Nittany Lions slept through much of the first half, and they damn near put me to sleep, too. Fortunately, I also had the Georgia-Alabama game to hold my interest

It is clear that the 2024 edition of the Penn State Nittany Lions has significant potential. However, they must shitcan that slow start stuff. After UCLA next week, PSU faces USC, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Washington. They must come out of that phase of the schedule with no fewer than one loss to remain seriously in contention for that playoff spot the Sanguinarians think is a gimme.

The first big test of the year having been passed, I hope Penn State can clean up its act and work on those weak points. The next few weeks should tell us more about whether that might happen.

I’ll be back mid-week with a look at the upcoming UCLA game.

Gotta Beat That Old Pig Farmer

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#19 Illinois (4-0) at #9 Penn State (3-0)

Chief Illiniwek
Heap Big Chief Illiniwek, banished by the NCAA, but not forgotten.

As I await the peripheral effects of Hurricane Helene, I sit here scratching my head. How the hell do the oddsmakers see this game as much as a 19.5 point spread? A presumed Top Twenty matchup should be closer than that, shouldn’t it? And when you consider that Penn State has beaten nobody in the Top Twenty whereas Illinois has two Top Twenty victories, has sanity left Reno?

Illinois beat #22 Nebraska in overtime on their home turf last week. Two weeks prior to that game, they had beaten #19 Kansas 23-17. Meanwhile, Penn State was dispatching no one in the Top 50. After an opening win against WVU (now 2-2), the Nittany Lions stumbled to pull out a victory against Bowling Green, then blew out bottom-feeder Kent State after a crappily slow start. Penn State is not yet tested, so this game should provide some clues. But, still…???

Sufficient Talent on Illiniwekian Offense

Illinois has an experienced quarterback in Luke Altmyer, one of the best in the Big Ten. He has no interceptions thus far this year, and he’s got a couple of decent receivers to test the Penn State secondary, which is missing a key component or two. In the see-saw Nebraska game, the Illini passed for 215 yards on a 21-27, four-touchdown performance by Altmyer. Senior receiver Pat Bryant caught five for 74 yards and two touchdowns.

Kaden Feagin, a homegrown sophomore, is the primary running back in an offense that turns to the run to ice games, in Bret Bielema style. He and his colleagues ran for 166 yards against Nebraska, averaging 4.3 yards per rush.

TNT’s Simplistic Keys to the Game

Let’s start with this: GET ON THE BOARD FIRST AND DON’T PLAY FROM BEHIND! That’s a tall order for the Nittany Men, a typically slow starting outfit. Will 7:30 PM start, coupled with the “white out energy” James Franklin has exhorted fans to bring, enable them to wake the hell up before the opening kickoff? Franklinly, I ain’t holding my breath!

So, come out shooting! Savvy old pig farmer Bret Bielema will certainly have his boys ready, so Penn State must respond in kind.

The danger in playing from behind against Illinois is that they’ll go into full Bielema Three-Yards-and-a-Cloud-of-Dust Mode, chewing up yards and clock, keeping the PSU defense on the field and letting the Nittany Lion offense stiffen up on the sidelines. Get out to an early lead and build on it, damnit!

AND DO NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSED BY THE DAMN SPREAD! Although James Franklin pays lip service to it, these guys lack the discipline to play every game as if they were playing for the Still Somewhat Mythical National Championship (SSMNC). They play down to their perceived view of their opponents until they are in over their heads, then they desperately struggle to win. None of that bullshit here!

End of Keys to Game rant, already!

Famous Alumna

Jenny, my wife. University of Illinois, BS, 1986.

Da Wedda

All eyes are on the weather right here in Florida, so who cares about Pennsylvania, already? OK, just kidding. So here is what our friends at AccuWeather say: “Mostly cloudy and humid with a shower; a rain jacket may be needed for the football game.” They’re calling for more than a shower, though, giving us an 80% chance of precipitation, with a high temp of 72 and a low of 60. Not horrible, so I cannot see it either benefiting or penalizing either team.

Da Bottom Line

Enough bullshit for now. Let’s get serious. Well, as serious as things get around here. As I stated at the outset, I cannot believe the humongous spread or the fact that ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives Penn State an overwhelming shot at victory, to the tune of 86.3%. I see this game as much more even than that, and then, there’s Franklin’s history of not covering spreads.

So, my friends, the Official Turkey Poop Prediction, that fallible forecast by this foul, fallow, fossilized fowl, will bring you back to reality. While the fanciful spread established by weed-smoking punters is currently at 19.5 (oy vey!), if I were a betting bird, I would put all my eggs in the Illini basket, taking the points. The over/under is 47.5, suggesting a break-even final score of 34-14, in favor of the homeys. While this won’t be a nine-overtime game reminiscent of the 2021, I see it as ending up more like the Bowling Green game, especially if the slow start flag is flying and the boys think they’re in a walkover. So, I’ll predict that same damn score: Penn State 34, Illiniweks 27. Take the over.

I’ll be back after the big Homecoming White Out Energy game for a glimpse at where my prediction went wrong. In the meantime, toodle-oo.

Covered the Spread

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Penn State 56, Kent State 0

So, the Kotelnicki offense showed off its juggernautical capabilities on Saturday’s 56-0 rout of the hapless Golden Flashers, setting a school record in the process. After a quintessentially characteristic Penn State slow start, the Nittany Lions rolled up 718 yards of total offense and knocked two Kent quarterbacks out of the game.

Drew Allar had a terrific day 17-21 for 409 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Beau Pribula added a touchdown and was 6-9. However the best QB of the day was tight end Tyler Warren, who contributed a touchdown on a 17-yard passing play on a direct snap to him in a wildcat formation. That gave him a perfect quarterback rating.

I had been bitching about third-down efficiency, but Penn State was 8-10 today, nothing to bitch about. (I mean, why bother bitching? No one listens, anyway). But I’ll remind you that all this wonderfulness on offense was against the worst team in the FBS. The Nittany Lions led 28-0 at the half. Last Saturday, Tennessee led Kent 65-0 at the intermission. Penn State, notorious for its slow starts, waited until 2:38 in the first period to score its first of eight touchdowns. Compare this with Tennessee’s performance against the same opponents, in which they scored 38 in the first quarter. Jumping out to an early lead is the way to win. The Nittany Lions must stop farting around like this now that the Big Ten schedule is nigh.

Stifling Defense

Defensively, the Lions took care of business, allowing 67 total yards, of which 49 were on the ground. They allowed only six first downs, while their offensive compadres rang up 40, giving them long rests. For those who think this is hot shit, I’ll remind you that we’re talking about Kent State (0-4), who are headed once again for the MAC scrap heap.

Time to Stop Farting Around

It gets serious from here. The erstwhile pig farmer is bringing his revamped Illini to town with a 4-0 record, fresh off an overtime victory over formerly highly regarded Nebraska in Lincoln. Bielema and his boys would like nothing better than a big upset in Beaver Stadium to prove they are “for real.” I suspect that we’ll be looking at #10 vs. #20 or some similar meaningless rankings. I don’t know whether our friends, the Sanguinarians, are shaking in their boots, but they need to appeal to their diety to exhort PSU not to approach this one too casually.

PSU covered the spread and hit the over by the slimmest of margins. I was thinking that Franklin would miss again, but Beau Pribula sealed the deal for him with 1:25 left in the game.

I’ll be back mid-week with a better look at the Illinois game, which should be a telling mid-term exam.