Penn State Hosts Ball State in Home Opener
The Ball State Cardinals (1-0, 0-0 MAC), last year’s MAC champions come to St. Joe Memorial Stadium at Beaver Field Saturday at 3:30 PM offer themselves as a sacrifice to the football gods. The heavily favored #11 Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0, 1-0 B10) will seek to improve to 2-0 in front of a packed house.
Ball State is coming off a not very impressive 31-21 over Missouri Valley Conference Western Illinois, while Penn State, as you well know, beat Wisconsin ugly last week, with an anemic ground game and several gifts from God through His servant Graham Mertz. Sanguinarians now predict a 12-0 season and a playoff berth for PSU, as you know, but this Penn State team should easily handle the Cardinals. Should, I said — unless they’re too preoccupied looking ahead to Auburn next week.
Ball State’s secondary was porous against W Ill, allowing 367 passing yards, but their rushing defense held the Leathernecks to just 70 yards. It would be nice if Penn State would manage to do better than last week’s 50 yards on the ground. A couple of sustained drives by the Nittany Lion offense in the first half would earn major appreciation by the weary defense.
Penn State’s secondary was competent last week, and they’ll need to remain so this week. Ball State’s Super Senior Justin Hall leads the FBS with 265 career receptions. Last week, Hall had eight catches for 137 yards against Western Illinois.
The Cardinals are a well-seasoned bird, with most of their team returning from last year, including sixteen fifth-year seniors.
I hope the Penn State rushing game works in the first half, because I will be bored otherwise. The offensive line play will be key. They weren’t remarkably effective last week, but that was Wisconsin. How about a hundred-yard day for No(v)ah Cain, for starters?
And the kicking game. Franklin explained that there are three parts to the kicking game: the snap, the hold, and the kick. He said the laces weren’t positioned right. That sounds like my excuse on the golf course. My shoes are laced up wrong. Yeah, that’s it. (I know the ball position on the hold is critical but come on. A missed extra point and a chip shot field goal?) Get that act together!
Last week, I failed miserably. I took the “over” and had Wisconsin scoring 42. The PSU defense is better than I thought, and they should easily handle David Letterman U this week. But the Cardinals are a hard-working, experienced squad, and they won’t be showering us with gift cards like Wisconsin did. Or should I just reduce it to Graham Mertz? Yeah, he’s the guy hanging in effigy in Madison as I write this.
Da Wedda
Saturday is forecast to be a genuinely nice late summer day in University Park: partly sunny with a high of 74. I’d love to be there instead of steamy Central Florida!
Da Bottom Line
Time now for the fallible forecast, the Official Turkey Poop Prediction, that awful offal extruded by this foul fowl. Yessssssss! And it counts!
The gamblers have made Penn State a 22½-point favorite, with an over/under of 57½. A little math reveals that this represents a break-even with the Nittany Lions winning 40-17 or some such thing. If Western Illinois can score 21 on Ball State, I believe Penn State can double that — IF they can muster some semblance of a running game. Relying on “explosive” plays (low percentage plays, in other words) can be a dangerous game. Not much chance of outright losing this one, but will they cover? I’m thinking they’ll put 32 on the board and allow 13, Just because I think Justin Hall can give our secondary some trouble. Yeah, that’s it. They ain’t going to cover the spread. I’ll go with Penn State 32, Ball State 13. Take the under.
(I’ll be back after the game with my sparkling witticisms, seasoned with a few I-told-you-sos).
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Big Al says
I watched two quarters of the Ball State – WIU game and my biggest takeway was that Ball State didn’t look like a team that was capable of winning the MAC title. They didn’t seem to have the talented starters that prior year MAC champions like Toledo and Northern Illinois have had (lack of depth is the primary shortcoming of MAC teams).
They are well coached and don’t make many mistakes. But I didn’t notice anybody with NFL potential and both lines looked undersized. Their offense is primarily a short passing dink and dunk scheme that could frustrate Penn State (I expect the qb to throw before the pass rush can reach him). Their defense looked pretty mediocre – any Power 5 offense with a pulse should be able to score 28 points against them.
This will be an easy win unless Bad Clifford resurfaces and gifts them with some turnovers. And I also suspect that the Kitties will be looking ahead to Auburn and won’t be putting out their best effort. So I’m taking Ball State getting 22 points and avoiding the over/under Dear Old State 38 Ball State 20. (I’m pretty sure the Birds will score more points than Bucky did)
The Nittany Turkey says
Your prediction last week was right on the money, so I’m a believer for now. We’ll see how you do this week before I anoint you as Nittany Turkey Savant of the Season.
Can Oregon upset tOSU? I’m not buying the #3 ranking for the latter.
The other big one is Iowa-Iowa State. The Cyclones are ranked #9 to the Hawkeyes’ #10. Lots of people are sold on Iowa this year. K. John even put them above tOSU. Are they for real? Are the Cyclones worth a shit? We’ll find out on Saturday.
Is it the end for Scott Frost if the ‘Huskers lose to Buffalo? Will Wisconsin so totally screw up another game that they lose to the Brick Dick?
Should be an interesting weekend.
—TNT
Michael H. Geldner says
The gamblers’ assessments sound about right. I just hope PSU doesn’t need to score any field-goals.
The Nittany Turkey says
The MAC champs are in this one over their heads, but I bet they put up a good fight. PSU has sold over 100,000 tickets for this game, so the super-spreader Beave will be responsible for a large Delta surge in PA.
—TNT
K. John says
I don’t really know what to think other than I am taking the under. While people are pumped after last week’s win, I saw it as pure luck. 77% of our offensive yards and 100% of our point total were based on 5 plays. Furthermore, only one of which could be reasonably attributed to solid play design, and we turned it over on downs on that drive. Bottom line, Wisconsin made a bunch of foolish mistakes they usually don’t. That was the difference between an ugly win and a 28 to 0 fugly loss was razor thin. Now, Ball State. They are a major step up from your average MAC team. I would imagine their defense will hold up somewhat well given the current state of the offense. They will make some mistakes and we’ll get some yards. Unlike Wisconsin, the defensive line may not fair so well given the near complete lack of an interior pass rush we saw last week. I am going with the good guys and a 2 and 0 start, but taking the under.
Penn State 24
Ball state 17
The Nittany Turkey says
Last week’s anemic offense has you worried, eh? You know I agree that they walked the tightrope and got out of that one alive with an angel on their shoulder — an angel named Graham Mertz. This game will be interesting for several reasons, but the big one in my mind is that need to take advantage of the presumed mismatch, pounce on the toothful birds early, and win it going away. Making this a close game will portend for a fretful, nail-biting season in which they will be expecting low-percentage plays and defense to win. They’ve got to play some ball control football, methinks.
—TNT