Orange Bowl: #7 Notre Dame (13-1) vs. #6 Penn State (13-2)
Greetings, Turkey readers!
First, let me take this opportunity to wish you all a Happy New Year. Let us all hope for big and beautiful things in 2025. Will one of those things be Penn State making a deep penetration into the CFP, like to the still somewhat mythical national championship (SSMNC) game? That is what we’re here to determine (as if we make that determination). Without further adoo-doo, let us proceed to examine the intermediate task of dispatching the Fighting Irish.
By the way, why is such a disparagingly stereotypical nickname as the “Fighting Irish” permissible under woke NCAA rules? They made the “Fighting Illini” change to just “Illini” to avoid offending the Peoria nation by hanging the bellicose adjective on them, so why not the same for the “Fighting Irish”? My conjecture is that the Irish are proud of their barroom brawling reputation and thereby insist on keeping the moniker. From the folks who brought you bare-knuckle boxing champion John L. Sullivan and Daniel Day Lewis in “Gangs of New York”, into the fray…
What we have here is a match-up of two similar teams. Both have strong defenses. Both have key injuries. Both have serviceable, albeit not elite, quarterbacks. Both will have similar game plans. Therefore, it will come down to execution and coaching. (For Franklin-haters, that’s not a good thing).
PSU Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
If Drew Allar thought he had pressure during the Boise State game, in the paraphrased words of Al Jolson, he ain’t seen nothin’ yet! Former Penn Stater Al Golden’s pass rush will test Allar and the offensive line with a potpourri of blitz packages. Since Allar’s receiving corps ain’t nothing special, with one notable exception being tight end Tyler Warren, Golden will concentrate on man defense and double-covering Warren. Shutting down the passing game will put the onus for moving the ball on Penn State’s two-headed running machine, Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton.
Al Golden has the defensive front seven that can do so. However, keeping the pressure on Allar while accounting for Warren and the dynamic duo can test their mettle. Penn State’s success will hinge on Andy Kotelnicki’s play calling (and perhaps James Franklin’s meddling in same). If Andy continues to get cute and stray from known strengths of the team, the Nittany Lions will go down in flames.
Also, the Notre Dame defense is intent on forcing turnovers, which they do quite well. Penn State must play mistake-free to have a shot at winning this thing.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Penn State Defense
Many have said that Penn State’s is the best defense the Irish will have faced this season. That is giving Penn State lots more credit than it deserves, given the 37 points it allowed to Oregon, one of only two contenders it played during the year. A big part of the defense’s effectiveness will rest on the injured shoulder of Abdul Carter, a disruptive edge rusher who Tom Allen moves around to confuse offenses. Also an effective run-stopper, he exited the Boise State game early in the second quarter with an arm and shoulder injury. His status for the Orange Bowl is uncertain.
One of the weapons the PSU defense must stop is 1,000-yard running back Jeremiyah Love, who also was injured in his last outing, the Irish’s 23-10 win over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. He left in the third quarter and did not return. Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock is planning to use Love in the Orange Bowl. Love has been practicing with a heavy knee brace. If he is compromised, Jadarian Price is his backup, and he is ready to go. He has proven to be an effective runner this year.
Another weapon is senior quarterback Riley Leonard. The Duke transfer’s running ability will require that the Nittany Lions keep a spy on him. Thus far, Leonard has 149 carries for 831 yards and 15 touchdowns. His longest run was fifty yards. Leonard also has a more talented receiving corps than is available to Allar (apart from Tyler Warren).
Keys to a Penn State Win
- Stick with what got you here! (Allen, Singleton, Warren)
- Protect the ball!
- Shut down Notre Dame’s running game! (Both Love/Price AND Leonard).
- Force Notre Dame into passing situations.
Da Wedda
Chilly, for Miami, means a high of 67 with an overnight low of 54. There is a possibility of thunderstorms from some unstable air and the wind will be moderate, 13 mph with gusts to 21. Decent football weather, in this Turkey’s humble opinion.
Da Bottom Line
Will this be the final Official Turkey Poop Prognostication of the 2024-2025 season? In my mind, this is a close one, and depending on the bullet factors I listed above, it could go either way. However, as I stated at the outset, we’re here to determine who will win, so let’s get down to business.
The odds-makers set the spread at Notre Dame – 1.5, and bettors have affirmed that number, which has not budged. Neither has the over/under of 44.5 which, combined with the spread, suggests a Notre Dame victory of 24-21. Unless someone screws up big time, this Turkey believes that the game will be low-scoring and keenly contested. However, I lack confidence in Andy Kotelnicki sticking with what got him here, I think Penn State’s receivers are a non-factor (other than Warren), and I believe Carter’s injury will be consequential to the outcome, so I am going with Notre Dame 24, Penn State 20. I would tenuously shade toward the under.
See you after the game. My prediction notwithstanding, I hope I can come back with another Turkey Poop Prognostication before the 2024-2025 season concludes.
