#15 Penn State vs Indiana

We’re going back home to the sycamore trees of Nativeamericaniana for a game this Saturday at 3:30. Love those sycamore trees. Hell, just so long as we don’t see any buckeyes for a while, any other kind of tree is just fine.

I procrastinated on writing this week’s article. Couldn’t think of much to say after the Ohio State loss. I’m neither a Sanguinarian nor one of those unrealistic, rabid fanboys who think that the season is over. I’m just weary. But I’ll give it a go, just for the hell of it.

Two Quarterback Controversies

On the Indiana side, Nativeamericaniana head coach Tom Allen knows he needs a change, but he won’t say which of the three potential starters he’ll slot in for Saturday. Could be Connor Bazelak, who has sucked thus far. Could be Jack Tuttle, who will be transferring after this season. Or there’s a freshman named Brendon Sorsby who Allen might even tap. He just knows that he needs a change somehow somewhere, as the Hoosiers (3-5, 1-4 Big Ten) have lost five straight. And OMG OMG WTF — the most recent loss was to RUTGERS!!!!

Meanwhile, back at the Lasch, Penn State Culture of Football Grand Poobah James Franklin is a stubborn sumbitch. The more fanboys call for Drew Allar, the more stubborn Franklin gets about keeping Sean Clifford at the helm. “Whoever gives us a chance to be 1-0 this week and a chance to win a bunch of games this year for all the guys in the locker room, that’s who we’re going to go with.” Perhaps a little reverse psychology would work. If the media and the fans would conduct a concerted effort to exhort Franklin to keep Clifford in there, maybe he’d play Allar.

I don’t agree that Allar is the Second Coming, the Great White Hope, or whatever. Only time will tell whether he’s got the talent, the brains, the stamina, and the toughness to be all that. So, I agree that Clifford should be the starter. However, I want to see more of Allar from here on, as he is our best hope for the future. Maybe our only hope. He needs game experience. Now, we have a perfect opportunity. If he doesn’t play the entire second half of this game, when Penn State is up 28-7, I’ll be disappointed.

Last Outings

I ain’t talking about the tOSU loss here, so the heading should be “Last Outing“. Indiana, who handed the now #16 Fighting Illiniweks their one loss in the season opener, has sucked ever since, most recently losing five straight games to Cincinnati (who even UCF can beat), Nebraska (who ANYONE can beat), Michigan, (who no one has yet beaten), Maryland, and Lowlyrutgers (all one compound word). When you lose to Rutgers, you know that something must change.

How the hell can you lose to Rutgers? Rhetorical question, asked because up to the time of last week’s game, the Scarlet Knights had lost twenty-one straight conference games at home! Think about that! Pretty hard to do! Who is scarlet?

In that 24-17 loss to the Scarlet Pussies (4-3, 1-3 Big Ten), the Whoosiers were two for twelve in third down conversions — which out-PennStates Penn State! They managed to gain only 272 yards overall, 210 of them through the air and only 62 rushing. Bazelak threw one interception, and there were seven penalties for sixty-five yards. They weren’t bad at punting, though. Punter James Evans had eight punts for 333 yards, which is just a-ight, but he nailed four inside the 20. Good show in a losing effort.

Look for Evans in a transfer portal coming your way soon!

The mighty Hoosieristic defense had only three TFLs, with no hurries and no sacks. Even the suspect Penn State offensive line should have a field day with these clowns.

Da Wedda

Nice, Indian Summer day in Bloomington, they tell us. Well, maybe not. (I was looking at today). Tomorrow is a different story as a cold front works its way through. The forecast is, “Strong winds subsiding; mostly cloudy and not as warm with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly early in the day.” Well, our game kicks off at 3:42 or some such dumbass TV regulated time, so “mainly early in the day” might save our asses. However, for shits and grins, the forecast wind is 21 mph from the southwest, with gusts to 45, 92% cloud cover, 95% probability of precipitation, and 38% probability of thunderstorms. Hoohah!

Da Bottom Line

You know, what we must guard against is the big letdown after Ohio State. Wait? How the hell do we guard against THAT? Isn’t that Franklin’s job?

Ponder that whilst I tell you that it is now time for the fearless, brainless, feckless Official Turkey Poop Prognostication, the awful offal extruded weekly from this foul old fowl’s cloaca, which is as good as the electronic paper upon which it is written. Amen.

So the geniuses (that ain’t me!) give Indiana a 15.9% chance of winning. That seems high, but that’s why they’re geniuses and I ain’t. Meanwhile, the gamblers like Penn State by 13.5, with an over/under of 50.5. That works out to about 33-18 Penn State. Thirty-three points is right on the Nittany Lions average scored per game this year. Indiana has allowed 30.6 points per game. If there is no post-apocalyptic letdown, I’m looking for the Lions to score 35 or more. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers have no running game and not much of a passing game. Their offensive line can’t block and the defense makes up for it by not tackling (paraphrased John McKay quote of the week). Penn State 45, Indiana 10. Take-um heap big over.

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I will return after the game with some more made up stuff. I think they’ll win this one. Don’t you agree? In fact, who can they lose to this year? The most likely would be Maryland. That would suck.

Ohio State 44, Penn State 31

The game could have gone either way after three quarters were played, but Ohio State stepped on the gas in the fourth quarter, scoring 28 points to Penn State’s 17. With a career performance by defensive end J. T. Tuimoloau, who had a monster day forcing turnovers, and by turning to their talented skill players in crunch time, they transformed what had been an off-day for C. J. Stroud into a resounding victory.

Turnovers’ll Kill Ya

After the game, I was on a bell pepper run to Publix when Chris the Checkout Guy spotted my Penn State t-shirt and bemusedly asked, “What happened?” He said he had left to go to work in the third quarter when the game was tight, and then while at work he saw the final score. “Turnovers,” I said. “Lots of them, including a pick-six.” The Nittany Lions had taken the road less traveled, and it made all the difference.

Four turnovers against Ohio State spells doom. The Buckeyes had none of their own. In an evenly played game, that’s a killer. Turnovers’ll killya. Q.E.D.

Pass Happy

Sean Clifford came out throwing: forty-seven pass attempts, to be exact. That’s a lot of passes for our sixth-year super senior.

As Darrell Royal once said, “When you throw the ball, three things can happen and two of them aren’t good.” (Some assholes at the bar will always pop up and say it was Woody Hayes or Bo Schembechler who said it, but I’m saying it was Darrell Royal, so STFU!). Well, on three of those forty-seven pass attempts, bad things happened, and that doesn’t even count the lost possession fumble on a strip-sack.

Anyway, Clifford was 32-47 for 371 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Plus, that one disastrous strip-sack, if you don’t mind me mentioning it again. Meanwhile, C. J. Stroud was 26-33 for 354 yards and a TD. No interceptions, though. Oh, yeah. That makes a difference, doesn’t it?

Stroud’s star receivers made a difference too, although it was a wash between Schmuckeye Marvin Harrison, Jr. (10 for 185 with a long of 37) and Penn State’s Parker Washington (11 for 179 with a long of 58 and a TD).

Big Man on Defense

Defensive end J. T. Tuimoloau had a career day, including a pick-six that sealed the deal. According to ESPN, Tuimoloau became one of three FBS players in the past fifteen seasons to record two sacks, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, an interception, and a touchdown in a single game. Tuimoloau did even better, as he had not one, but TWO interceptions. His final line: six tackles, three solo, two sacks, and three tackles for loss.

Run for Your Lives

The Penn State running game was present, but well bottled up except for one 27-yard run by Kaytron Allen. The Schmuckeyes had similar issues running the ball against the stalwart Penn State front seven, but one 41-yard TD-scoring run by Treveyon Henderson put tOSU ahead for good early in the fourth quarter. From that point, the Bucks scored three more touchdowns, while the Nittany Lions could only muster a field goal and a meaningless touchdown with 1:12 left in the game. The subsequent onside kick failed, but at that point they would have needed two touchdowns to win.

Otherwise, the Nittany Lions outran the Bucks 111-98. But the only stat that matters is the one on the scoreboard at the end of the game.

And, In Summation…

Yeah, turnovers’ll killya. Penn State played hard and steadily. The Nittany Lions` had more first downs than their opponents, they rang up more total yards, and they did very well on third and fourth down conversions. They were moving the ball well. But four turnovers against a good team is not survivable.

For you still exuberant Sanguinarians® clinging to a false hope of a playoff spot and considering all the plausible scenarios that could put the Nittany Lions in there if the stars are properly aligned, I’ll leave you with this quote from the late, lamented John McKay, head coach of the USC Trojans (1960-1975) and the NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1975-1984), one of my football quote heroes:

Three or four plane crashes and we’re in the playoffs.

—John McKay

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Yes, I was wrong about the game’s outcome. My prediction was 46-17 and the game wound up 44-31. From the gambling perspective, the Schmuckeyes did not cover the spread and the OVER would have been the winner. So, I’m an idiot, but I am heartened by the realization that Penn State played much better than I thought they would. We’ll move on from here, and we still can see a 10-2 season. I’ll be back with a look at the forthcoming game at 3-5 Indiana.

#2 Ohio State vs. #13 Penn State

You never know. I’d be stupid(er) if I were to play it straight here and analyze what defies analysis. I could offer coachlike platitudes like, “We’re up against a good football team,” or “the only thing to concentrate on is going 1-1 this week.” Not gonna do it. I will allow that there is a minuscule possibility of an upset based on a decided home field advantage. (Notice that I didn’t say “based off of”. Who the hell ever produced that abomination and why is it so universally adopted in the crappy speech and prose of latter-day social media wankers?).

I’ve seen lots in this series, which admits the possibility that anything goes. I was attending Penn State in 1964 when the most shocking Penn State victory occurred. It was 27-0, it was in Columbus, and Woody Hayes made no bones (or throat punches) about the fact that his boys’ asses were soundly kicked out there. I was present in Beaver Stadium in 1994 for the most lopsided game in the series*, where the Nittany Lions kicked even more ass, prevailing 63-14. Playing the Schmuckeyes is always special, whether you want to admit it or not.

Now, we here. The toughest game of the year. Ohio State is 7-0 and looking very playoff worthy. Meanwhile, the student section vomitories at Beaver Stadium are likely to be teeming with drunken humanity and bilious aromas once again, even with such an early kickoff. Been there, done that. You see, Penn State students know as much about drinking as Penn State players know about peanut butter and jelly sandwich chucking.

A Nooner

The TV schedulers don’t think much of this matchup, else it would have been scheduled for a prime-time slot. In the Big Ten, Michigan vs. Moo U. got that coveted time slot. To be fair, we had it last week for the laugher against Minnesota. For this game, we find ourselves back in familiar territory with a noon kickoff. At least it’s at home.

So what might be the chances for Dear Old State, you ask? Slightly better than they would have been if Ryan Day hadn’t put Jaxon Smith-Njigba on play restriction. But they have other talented wide receivers, like Marvin Harrison, Jr., a chip off the old block if ever there was one, and Emeka Egbuka, bearing an in-vogue Swahili moniker. ESPN’s power meter, not to be confused with Al Goldstein’s Peter Meter, gives Poon State a 20.4% chance. It’s called the Matchup Predictor, but I couldn’t pass up an opportunity to slide the Peter Meter joke in there.

C. J. Stroud is the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy this year, to date having thrown for 2023 yards and 28 touchdowns this year. Contrast that with our boy Sean Clifford’s 1445 yards and 13 TDs. The Buckeyes score an average of 49.6 points per game. (But, gee, Daddy! They haven’t faced anything as formidable as the mighty Penn State defense this year, have they?). Ohio State scores just enough points to handily beat their opponents and then they add significant humiliation by pumping the final score to stratospheric heights.

Last Time Out

Both had delightful home games last time out. As you know, Penn State easily handled Minnesota, while tOSU manhandled Iowa 54-10. Iowa’s offense isn’t built to score a shitload of points, so no way were they even going to get close to the Buckeyes’ output. In that game, even with Smith-Njigba on play restriction and only one catch, Stroud threw for 286 yards and four touchdowns against a sound Hawkeye defense, with Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison getting thirteen grabs and two touchdowns between them. You’d think they might be missing Chris Olave, but the talent runs deep in Columbus.

Iowa managed to keep the Buckeyes running game at bay, constraining the tandem of Treveyon Henderson and Miyan Williams to only 57 yards on 21 carries. But who needs the running game when you have the “explosive” game that is the stuff of James Franklin’s wet dreams? That’s why, like PSU, they were only 3-13 on third-down conversions.

On defense, the Schmuckeyes forced three fumbles and three interceptions on their avian eye counterparts. They recorded five sacks and ten tackles for loss, along with three QB hurries. Will Clifford get a chance to make plays? I dunno, but we’re going to see.

Da Wedda

A beautiful football day is afoot, as da weddaperson is calling for sunny with a high of 58 and little wind. This is one of the few areas in which I am not blowing big wind, as it were.

Da Bottom Line

I know that some of you skip the above drivel to see what this fool is going to predict. That’s why I’m going to repeat the Al Goldstein joke here. Why should you miss gems like that? Just kidding. Time for the Official Turkey Poop Prediction, the fecal fumbling of a foul old fowl whose offal record impresses no one and whose blood runs through my instrument and whose heart is in my soul. But the leader of the band is tired, and his eyes are growing old, you say.

When I saw the gambling line for this one, I laughed. Could there be that much of a disparity between the #2 and #13 teams in the country? You can bet your ass on it. Is it possible that I’m full of shit? You can bet your ass on that, too.

The current spread is 15.5, and the over/under is 61, which suggests that the punters think Penn State can lose by a couple of touchdowns in a game that is likely to end with tOSU again scoring close to 40 points. It would work out to be 38-23 or thereabouts. Good luck with that. Ohio State allows 240 yards per game and only 14.9 points. This ain’t looking good. I’ll be generous to Penn State when I predict Ohio State 46, Penn State 17. I think the over/under is about where it belongs. “Based off of” precisely what, you ask? Damned if I know.

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*Actually, tied for lopsidedness with 2013, which ended up with the same score, but it was the Schmuckeyes prevailing in that one, hence my convenient mental block.

I’ll be back after the game to wonder why I was so wrong about my prediction.