(I thought I could resist that title temptation, but nooooo…….)

#5 Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) at USC (3-2, 1-2 Big Ten)

Wow! The Penn State Nittany Lions, who backed into the #5 spot in the AP college football poll, will hop onto a silver bird in Harrisburg on Thursday for their first non-backyard road trip of the 2024 season. Their opponent, USC, awaits them, pissed off after an unexpected 24-17 conference loss to Minnesota last week, which unrolled the Trojans right out of the Top 25.

Fancy Pants

Some pseudo-experts think Penn State is just coasting, waiting for some opposition. That sounds like bullshit to me. On the other hand, in playing just well enough to win five games, they have demonstrated that they can maintain some semblance of control.

But really, Boys and Girls, who the hell have they played? Soporifically, against Illinois at home in Beaver Stadium two weeks ago and again against UCLA. Hugely favored in both games, they did not cover the spreads. So, they’re either underperforming, or they are overrated. I am leaning toward the latter.

Keys to the Game (as the hack sports commentators call it)

To beat USC, they better take the damn ball and run with it. Literally. In the UCLA game, Penn State managed only 85 yards on thirty carries for an anemic average of 2.8 yards per carry. Of course, as I had mentioned, Nick Singleton did not play. This week, they’re looking at a weaker rushing defense, so they need to capitalize on their strength versus USC’s weakness. USC ranks 87th in rushing defense versus UCLA’s 25th. Michigan ran for 290 yards on them; Minnesota rushed for 193. We need to see a combined effort of at least 200 yards from Singleton, Allen, and Company to soften the defense for some rare (thus far) shots down the field. However, the Trojan’s pass defense has allowed only 157.6 yards per game this year, just 0.6 yards worse than PSU.

On the offensive side, USC can pass. They’re ringing up 292.8 yards per game through the air, so something’s gotta give. With some holes in the PSU secondary, the Trojans are liable to come out throwing. Obviously, the emphasis has shifted away from what used to be USC’s claim to fame, the running game, where the Prophylactics rank in the third quartile, averaging only 149.6 yards per game. (But that sure as hell beats 85!)

I’ll Stick My Neck Out

So, I am hoping that Singleton plays, and I am hoping that the Nittany Lions will be awake, focused, and not stupidly looking forward to the bye week. I will base my prediction on those optimal circumstances, but first, the infallible “it never rains in Southern California” forecast.

Da Wedda

Standard L.A. forecast for game day—partly sunny with a high of 85 and a low of 60, with only a one-percenter chance of rain. Negligible winds. Might be a little warm for our boys, but otherwise, the weather is no factor.

Da Bottom Line

The Nittany Lions, who in my mind have not yet been tested by any team that does not suck, might be looking at their stiffest challenge yet. Half of that is due to the commuting distance. Having commuted from Orlando to Southern California at one stage in my consulting career, I can tell you that it ain’t easy. These guys are lots younger, but jet lag does strange things to brains of all ages. The remaining half is getting the damn anemic offense in gear—both running and passing. If they can take care of business, they can win this one and even blow away the spread.

Analysis (for what it’s worth)

Time now for the Official Turkey Poop Prognostication, the fearless forecast floated forth by this foul, albeit felicitous, fowl. The spread opened at Penn State – 4 and is now – 5.5 as I write this. The over/under has increased from 48.5 to 50.5. Perhaps, the gamblers are optimistic about Singleton and the running game. I’m here to tell you that it is Penn State’s bright, shining hope.

The spread combined with the over/under suggests a Penn State win by a score of 28-22. However, ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives USC the edge, with a 51.6% chance of winning. Home field advantage must be heavily weighted in ESPN’s algorithm. After all, the cavernous L.A. Memorial Colisseum was built for the 1932 Olympics, was home to the 1984 Olympics, and will be the primary venue for the 2028 Olympics. So what? Well, O.J. Simpson played many games there, too. I know, I know. I’m stalling. So, I’ll spit it out, already: Penn State 31, USC 20. Yeah, they cover the spread and go over. Howzat for non-Sanguinarian optimism?

End Notes

While I hope to be back after the game to recap it and gloat about my highly accurate prediction, a couple of things might throw a monkey wrench into my plans.

First, right now as I am writing this, my area is under a hurricane warning and a tornado watch, thanks to an unruly lad named Milton. For the next twenty-four hours, we’ll be dealing with hell’s fury, but we won’t be out of the woods even then. First, a great potential for a protracted power outage exists. Flooding is expected due to up to fifteen inches of rain, and flood waters tend to rise maddeningly slowly. Furthermore, there will be property damage to assess and cleanup to be initiated. So, that all sucks.

Even if all the stars line up, I will not be watching the game live. It is scheduled on Yom Kippur, and as a Jew I must atone for my copious sins and fast between Friday sundown and Saturday sundown. I answer to a higher authority than the football gods on the Day of Atonement. Therefore, I will be watching the game after darkness sets in. I’ll need to set up a second screen to watch the all-important #2 tOSU at #3 Oregon game, which kicks off shortly after sunset. All this assumes that I will not be dealt a devastating blow by Milton.

See you on the other side!

#7 Penn State 27, UCLA 11

With so many people including the gamblers looking for a blowout, James Franklin’s boys once again did not disappoint us naysayers who believe that any point spread greater than two touchdowns is a profit opportunity. Take the opponent and the points. In this case, we were looking at 28.5 points, whereas the margin of victory was only sixteen points.

Sure, a win is a win, but where the hell do these humongous spreads come from? My conjecture is that many people’s inflated expectations for this Penn State team do not match up with reality. If I may further opine, the Lions are overrated at #7 and risk a rude awakening by bursting that inflated expectation bubble next week against USC.

The Nittany Lions did not score until halfway through the second quarter. This is not how a #7 team should perform against an unranked opponent. They turned to the running game early, with the game’s outcome still up in the air. Perhaps Drew Allar’s inaccurate throwing and inability to see open receivers had something to do with that. However, they wound up with only 85 yards rushing versus 237 yards passing. UCLA outrushed Penn State, 93-85.

UCLA dominated what Matt Herb called “increasingly irrelevant time of possession” by close to six minutes. They managed to get fourteen first downs against our vaunted defense and converted two of four fourth down opportunities. Missed tackles at all levels of the PSU defense helped the Bruins hold onto the ball for far too long.

For a while, it seemed as if the officials had bet on Penn State and wanted Franklin’s Boys to cover the spread. A questionable defensive holding call nullified what would have been a game-changing interception in the end zone by UCLA.

To give credit where due, UCLA’s young quarterback, Justyn Martin, was sparkling in his first starting role, necessitated by regular starter Ethan Garber’s leg injury. He went 22-30 for 167 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions. Garber has ten interceptions thus far this season, so this was a welcome change for the Uclans. Martin is their quick, mobile quarterback of the future (if he doesn’t use this performance to showcase himself for some NIL money through the ridiculous transfer portal, or whatever the hell these thinly disguised professionals do these days).

Another positive move was Penn State’s change at kicker. Ryan Barker played this game instead of the beleaguered Sander Sahaydak and had a perfect day, 2-2 for field goals and 3-3 on PATs.

So, no, there wasn’t a four-touchdown difference between these two teams, either theoretically or on the scoreboard. Unless something drastic happens in the Top Ten, Penn State is likely to maintain its #7 ranking. Seems over ranked for a team that does just enough to win. USC will test their mettle next week at the L.A. Memorial Colisseum.

I’ll be back mid-week with some insouciant comments regarding this season’s first game against a ranked (rather than rank) opponent.